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Matthew Smith

 
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  • Why Rare Earths May Have Room to Run [View article]
    Mark did state that, and then retracted it. I've followed resource markets for years, and the common occurance during bull runs is that the executives never know how high the markets will go (consequently they also never know how low either). Uranium was this way and everyone said that U3O8 pricing would not get above $100/lb....well it did. In fact it got almost 40% higher than that. Most execs thought $70 was overpriced, but it was not. We are now back over that level. China is Russia in this market, and there is a vacuum. Lynas and Molycorp have the luxury of selling into a supply deprived market.
    Feb 3 08:09 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rare Earth Element Myths Debunked [View article]
    Ok, let's review.

    By-product production is not going to flood the market. How do we know this? Well it is very expensive to build the infrastructure to do the mining and separation, even more so to do the refining and then making alloys and metals. BHP said that they were not interested in mining REEs at Olympic Dam, it was too much of a hassle.

    Recycling is not going to fill the gap either, the market is increasing and many of the REEs from past production are in landfills. Currently some REEs are recycled, but this is a very small portion of the entire market.

    New substances and new technology. Companies are just starting to look into all of this now that there are shortages, not because of the prices. With the new supplies coming online supply will incease along with the estimated 10% demand growth for the next few years. Yes REE prices have gone up, and they are high relative to in the past, but they do not make up a large % of the price of these products. New technology that replaces REEs is down the road. New technology that is a substitute for REEs requires going back to the drawing board for many products and other technologies - basically starting from scratch. I do not think society as a whole is willing to redesign/redevelop ipods, ipads, flat panel displays and other technologies simply to rid them of REEs. They will find more REEs.

    Personally the new tech appears to cost too much, REEs at today's prices is still way more cost competitive. How much does a Prius cost and how much is the cheapest Tesla vehicle?

    Further, with all the demand for REEs that is currently out there, they have to pay at least the cost of mining for these companies to keep the mines open. If they are unwilling, the mines shut down and then there is not enough supply which results in the manufacturers not being able to sell their high margin gear. Like uranium (which has a floor of $60) a floor has been set in the marketplace.

    If I come off as cocky, I apologize. However, the reason I believe I am right is due to the facts. I have not seen the facts regarding the actual recycling, the metal or element that will replace REEs in cars (the Tesla motor is based on a different kind of technology - which we still do not know if it is cost effective when head-to-head against REEs) or someone who is actually putting large by-product into the market (of all the plans I have seen the Missouri tailings seem to be the only ones that may come to market - but no large mines will).

    If your "new technology, recycling, new substances and new by-product production" is going to solve the supply issue and make tons of money, which companies are you invested in for this?
    Jan 30 06:22 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp Lookout a Net Positive [View article]
    I think you are mistaken on the worth of the entire REE market worldwide. It is more like 7-8 billion. The figure you are using is a year old. If you use the lower range, say 7 billion, your argument (if my mental math is correct) would then change to MCP is undervalued at the $6 billion range using your $1.21 figure.

    Something else you are all overlooking is the fact that MCP is going to be manufacturing "stuff" from their production. Magnets and water filters. The water filters could use up all of their cerium production, and cerium production will be about 50% of TREO production. These goods sell for more than the REOs, so that would indicate that the mining guesstimates we are discussing do not take into account the added revenue and higher margins from those businesses.
    Jan 27 07:25 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Rare Earth Primer [View article]
    I see the points you are alluding to.

    I think you will find what the article says is what you are saying. I said, "magnets and other materials" thus including alloys and the like...that is a general statement, meant to be all inclusive.

    Molycorp does produce concentrates, that is correct, however they do have a water filter based on their own patents that is made from cerium. They can make this filter, but they are not in commercial production...which is where they stand with the magnets too...they are stepping up if you will - they have been hiring experts to run that for them and setting up JVs and other opportunities. (I'll concede that you can have the point on Molycorp b/c they aren't in commercial production, but they CAN make these products, make no mistake).

    And the Japanese and others do make "stuff" out of the REEs they get from China, although it is known they would not have the most advanced technology when it came to actually getting the individual elements purified and in some cases combined together...China is by far the most advanced in this field (I feel you were getting at this, which is true).
    Jan 14 12:31 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quest Rare Minerals: A 'Real' Rare Earth Element Market Player to Watch [View article]
    Sorry missed that question. If you look at their press release regarding the change of auditors, they indicate that this is planned to help facilitate their potential listing on a us exchange. from past consulting work I have done (from the uranium go-go days specifically) it generally takes about 90 days from start to finish from when you apply for listing. Also, if I remember correctly you are not allowed to talk about it, until approved....which I feel has to still be the case as Avalon and Rare Element did not give too much of a heads up - a day in Avalon's case - before the listing on the Amex. Management has not given me any insight into this topic, however over time, you begin to see events reoccur if you will. They would not switch auditors, if they were not going to do the dual listing, this is for sure as switching auditors is not a move one takes lightly. My personal guesstimate is sometime in April based on the current timeline. Also, I think they choose the Amex over the Nasdaq (NYSE is probably not what they are looking for). I hope that answers your question.
    Jan 10 01:09 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodities Today: Buy These Oil Names And Avoid Fuel Cells [View article]
    That was a comment focused not on the business operations but on the stock movements...maybe market generals, or sector generals would have been a better phrase to use there. I have stated before that Ballard is probably the top dog in the industry based on their work thus far and the intellectual property they have.
    Mar 27 10:51 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today's Market: Tech And Retail In Focus [View article]
    Sorry if that came off as too political, that is never the goal. Was trying to correlate what has happened historically in these cases and point out what that could lead to. Split government is usually best for the stock market, and if history were to repeat itself that would no longer be the case. I do try to be as nonpartisan as possible and think that one would have a difficult time figuring out my political leanings looking at the articles here.
    Oct 1 08:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodities Today: The Good, The Bad, And The Truly Ugly [View article]
    Past articles have talked about the positives of the oil and nat gas buys, as does this one. But is it enough if gold continues lower and copper gets stuck in a range bound area? Never trick investors, do a little research before throwing out those kind of accusations please.
    Jun 26 09:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today's Market News To Trade On: 5 Stocks Moving On News [View article]
    Thanks guys! But I cannot take all the credit there (or maybe any of the credit except for the repost) as it was someone else who posted it elsewhere. Cannot remember where I saw the original but wish I could give credit where it is due because that is certainly meaningful.
    Apr 5 08:55 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Commodity Stocks Moving On News [View article]
    Hardly. In many cases solar, wind, etc are not even economical vs the fossils. And do we even have enough land mass to build enough solar farms to power the world?
    Feb 20 06:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Commodity Stocks Moving On News [View article]
    I believe that is up to their individual firms, but they cannot front run clients and do illegal activities. It all has to be disclosed is my understanding, but I'm no SEC expert (unless we are talking SEC football!) and don't keep up to date on it all. I'm not sure that the analyst does own it, so not sure about the comment you referenced to.
    Feb 12 04:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Commodity Stocks Moving On News [View article]
    Yep. That about sums it up...
    Feb 4 10:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Commodity Stocks Moving On News [View article]
    Who cares about consistency in being bullish or bearish when you are consistently right?!?! The calls would have consistently made readers money if they followed the calls and in some articles they would have gotten heads up when reading into our comments and noticing our waning bullishness or bearishness.

    Don't worry, I looked back because I remembered your other comment. We were bearish on the way down, then bullish and now not (unfounded optimism).

    Pointing out short-term fluctuations may not be value added to you, but to other readers it is. And there is a difference between may and do.
    Jan 3 10:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today's Market News To Trade On: 5 Stocks Moving On News [View article]
    Great color. Thanks for posting that for everyone.
    Oct 5 10:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Commodity Stocks Moving On News [View article]
    All about where you put your priorities...US wants batteries, not fossil fuels of any type. It is sad really.
    Sep 28 09:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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