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Matthew Smith

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  • Coal: Almost At The Bottom [View article]
    Honestly I am not a conservative investor. I take risks, but I take calculated risks with minimal downside and big upside. I believe there is a difference between being a risk taker with your capital and being foolish with it. Blind faith and the distortion of facts do not make one a fortune, as Mark can attest to. It is true that if you are not in you cannot win, but so too is it true that you cannot have lost if you were not in.

    My beef with Mark is his distorting facts and having been bullish all the way down coupled with some of the things he has said in the past which are false.
    Jun 21 05:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coal: Almost At The Bottom [View article]
    There you go again! You cited one instance in history when it happened (yes it was across the board, but look at a historical chart of even coal and you see far more U's than V's), and that was due to a credit crisis which had nothing to do with underlying fundamentals.
    Jun 21 04:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coal: Almost At The Bottom [View article]
    Some of our readers here are traders, others are long-term investors. Thus why we have stated in our articles near-term bearish but long-term bullish....allows people to know we expect it to move lower in the near-term but higher from these levels over time. Obviously not all readers are long, some are short and as we say what we say after some rallies they are able to create new short positions, add to existing ones or other trades off of that information. Not trying to be patronizing or anything, but does that add a bit of clarity or do I need to try again in my explanation?
    Jun 21 11:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Playing The Rare Earths Summit [View article]
    Right and where do those rare earths come from? Tasman locked up all of the significant rare earth properties in Europe...there are processing facilities - but we are discussing miners and potential miners.
    Feb 1 09:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Today we've seen probably the most worrying day of the crisis so far," writes Mike Riddell, as the contagion spreads to France which "sees a full blown run on its debt," the 30 year yield climbing to 4.43% (against Germany at 2.45%). A debt downgrade is near as French CDS are past the point at which Ireland and Spain received their first cuts.  [View news story]
    Cake, France.....Marie Antoinette?
    Nov 15 06:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Heavy Rare Earth Element Arena Seeing Movement [View article]
    Sorry there has been issues with comments loading today on the site, many of the author's have mentioned it in the forum we have. I at first thought it was a typo, however I looked back at my research notes I keep and I believe that the 1500 is what they will upgrade to with the 500 currently possible based on the old processing technique. That was my assumption based on a previous interview with the CEO and their prior plan. I have a question already sent to a contact at the company, so I will let you know as soon as I get a response.
    Oct 26 08:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Heavy Rare Earth Element Arena Seeing Movement [View article]
    No Aussie bias here! Really like the country continent for resource investments, however Seeking Alpha has a focus on American issues and every now and then I can sneak in a Canadian stock or two. Lynas gets covered due to its size, but the rest would get turned down in an article upon submission.
    Oct 26 10:17 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rare Element Resources: Bright Prospects for This Mining Play [View article]
    Chihawk,

    Nice to get some intelligent commenting for a change rather than the regurgitated dribble rare earth articles tend to attract.

    The entire transcript is available on our website, but to be direct, he stated that they would be after Moly and Lynas, which I took to mean after both expansions of course based on the timeline REE supplied me and my past research notes on MCP and LYC.AX/LYSCF.PK. He mentioned Arafura by name and mentioned that they are either in the first wave or just right after, so yes there does exist that element of risk.

    Lynas Malawi I am looking into, appears to be a nice project they have there just trying to figure out historical metallurgical work, etc that may exist (derisking of the project). In regards to Steenkampskraal (Great Western) and Zandkopsdrift (Frontier) both are S. African projects and historical too. 'Steen' is a very high grade, low tonnage project at this point and heavily skewed to the HREEs...it would be nice if they could expand the resource b/c at this point I think they will use up most, if not all in-house.

    One point I think is really important and that you can probably appreciate, is that the hydrometallurgy is going to be the make or break for many of these projects. I've talked with a few executives and the separation itself could derail many projects...some things work great in labs and when you try to apply them in the field...well it does not always go according to plan. If it is as difficult to 'crack' these deposits today as it was in the past, many of the projects that did not have work done on them could be a minimum of 5 yrs off based on that alone, and maybe 10 yrs at most. Yes, bearish for that particular stock, but very bullish for the industry at large.

    If you look at all the companies out there, with their various projects, and put them into tiers, REE has factors (infrastructure, grade, location, politics, share structure, balance sheet, etc.) that have caused us to put it into the top tier for those in the exploration and development category just under Lynas and Molycorp which we have in the top tier overall. I think from our other articles, you can figure the ones we like best, however an article is being put together to profile some Australian REE plays which appear undervalued at this time.

    Hope this came across clear, as there are a lot of different topics trying to hit on. Appreciate the research and questions you come up with as well.
    Apr 13 05:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Rare Earths May Have Room to Run [View article]
    Guys, I think that the arguing back and forth is futile. Both companies have their pros and cons and both should be owned in my opinion. If you believe in rare earths, you want those companies which will be first to production. Lynas will be first, however we have not seen their formula for separating the REEs work on a commercial scale yet....Molycorp we have, however they are refurbishing/rebuilding their mine workings. I have not said this before, but I suspect we shall see some production shortfalls as these mines come online, it happened with our uranium juniors last time (think Paladin, UraniumOne, UrAsia, etc. before they were majors!) due to issues with metallurgy and getting the supply chain for mine supplies ironed out and is quite common for companies bringing projects into production who have no previous track record of their own (of course their people have that experience, but usually they are not a team having worked with each other before). I think you put Lynas and Molycorp in their own leage, followed by the next into production right under.
    Feb 16 08:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Rare Earths May Have Room to Run [View article]
    Please see below:

    "You also forgot to mention that Lynas may produce rare earth ahead of molycorp"

    No that was covered:

    "Lynas will be first to production outside of China, and we believe that they will be sold out of material moving forward. "

    Please read...CAREFULLY.
    Feb 3 09:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Rare Earths May Have Room to Run [View article]
    winchester,

    What you state is true these are very hard to mine, thus why they are "rare". The premise of the article was that "IF" you thought that these were the fair prices going forward, then this is what REVENUES would look like. Revenues have nothing to do with the costs...if you have ever looked at financial statements, you would find costs below revenues. And we did note that we were not getting into the earnings estimates.

    If you look at some of the industry sources, in 2014 only 4 of the rare earths will be in oversupply, and the rest still having more demand than supply. Check out Lynas's website and go through the slides, there they have the information for free.
    Feb 3 08:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rare Earth Element Myths Debunked [View article]
    Well that makes you part of an ACC family. Impressive list of schools there.

    You are correct in regards to MCP and I would throw in Lynas (LYC.AX and two listings here in the US Pinks, an ADR that has 15-1 and regular ordinary). Those two companies should do really well. Both have been locking in clients, but with all the plans for stockpiles and expansion of demand (through new products), there should be room for more players. Stans Energy is one we were early on, one of the first to cover it really. It is like MCP in that it has a past producing mine along with the processing facilities (although work is needed). They also have historical drill results indicating that more mineralization lies outside of the mine pit they have. This deposit is below 5%, but does have the more expensive HREEs.
    Jan 28 03:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Uranium Plays for U.S. Investors [View article]
    If you are a conservative investor it may not make sense, for everyone else near-term producers offer tremendous upside, especially in bull markets. When a project comes online, the pounds in the ground become worth more than a defined deposit not being exploited. It does not happen overnight (the revaluation) but over time and you have to time it, but URG for instance by my calculations is worth somewhere close to $5/share. I have not run the calculations for the other companies so cannot say with confidence where they stand.

    For these companies bringing projects online, the ones with the well fields all ready to go, their "losses" are really capital expenditures....spending large sums to get the resource to market....they are not exploring hoping to find it, rather spending the money today to make healthy profits tomorrow.
    Jan 25 05:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quest Rare Minerals: A 'Real' Rare Earth Element Market Player to Watch [View article]
    chihawk...I think you should check out my company's website (theinvestar.com) here you will find all the back stories behind Quest and the rest of the industry. This was an update for our long-time readers. In the future I suppose I will need to include more history that I take for granted our readers already know.

    The quote you chose to use is about a secondary exploration project the company has. Their primary project is Strange Lake, which we at theinvestar.com believe will be the largest REE deposit in the world when all is said and done. This is what we were referencing when we discussed the at surface mineralization.

    Of all the projects out there that were not previously mined, Quest has the best chance of filling the void due to the size of the deposit, its proximity to the surface, the full spectrum of the REEs and the fact that it is situated in Quebec.

    Hope this answers your concerns.
    Jan 10 06:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quest Rare Minerals: A 'Real' Rare Earth Element Market Player to Watch [View article]
    Regarding China Shen Zhou Mining & Resources (SHZ), just wanted to post a link to another article we posted to our instablog here on sa (seekingalpha.com/insta...) pointing out a company the press is picking up as an REE play which certainly is not. Really don't want to see investors trying to gain REE exposure not get what they are paying for.
    Jan 9 04:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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