It's not feasible for these small banks to develop and maintain the systems and software needed to automate daily transactions. This turns the product into basically a non discretionary product. They don't have much of a choice in paying for it or not. In fact, when times are tough it's even more likely the services will be outsourced to JKHY, no capex required in licensing fees and hardware.
It's evident in their performance, not stock performance, but business performance in 2008 and 2009.
I do feel it's undervalued at the moment but I'm not too sure what I feel about the future. Munger is obviously great at allocating capital but he's 88 and Guerin is 82. What happens when they're gone, that could be in 10 years or next month (I know this could be said for most businesses, but I'm talking age related reasons). Then how much would the retained earnings be valued at?
Over the next 3-5 I think Sustain will be what drives the business or not. The traditional segment isn't growing, they've been able to increase margins by cutting costs and raising rates while subscriptions have fallen. How long can that last?
Google: Buy And Hold As Seeds Begin To Sprout [View article]
Nice article, Greenberg said in a lecture a few years back you're basically paying a market multiple for almost guaranteed growth from advertising and then getting everything else thrown in for free.
A (Long) Look At Birner Dental Management Services [View article]
Anthony, The dividend payout ratio being greater than 100% is true if you're looking at earnings. Earnings from BDMS are much lower than FCF because of the contracts with the dental offices being amortized. When looking at the ratio using FCF it's very different and not a bad thing. On FCF they're keeping, they're earning an acceptable return.
Charbroil, I'm not concerned that the number of offices is flat/shrinking. I think it shows that they're not willing to put money into offices that aren't producing. As I said in the article, I think as long as revenue per office is increasing they're doing a good job. It would be ideal if they could keep finding offices to roll under their Perfect Teeth brand, but I'd rather have a company that's prudent with expansion than one that is only concerned with growing the number of offices with no regard of how each office is functioning by itself.
Hastings: Worth More Than It's Selling For [View article]
Howie and Netmargin, After looking at the filings again you are both correct regarding the rental depreciation expense I was including in the FCF numbers. Thank you for pointing out my mistake and clarifying the issue.
On a side note, this is decent example of the importance of a margin of safety, and if possible, to what my estimated value was based on FCF and net current assets. In this situation with my FCF estimate being incorrect (by a large amount) if I had initiated a position I would still be protected on an asset basis. While not as safe as I previously thought, I would still have "some" protection before my margin of safety eroded.
Thanks for the helpful discussion and look forward to hearing from you guys in the future.
Jack Henry's Growth Yield [View article]
It's not feasible for these small banks to develop and maintain the systems and software needed to automate daily transactions. This turns the product into basically a non discretionary product. They don't have much of a choice in paying for it or not. In fact, when times are tough it's even more likely the services will be outsourced to JKHY, no capex required in licensing fees and hardware.
It's evident in their performance, not stock performance, but business performance in 2008 and 2009.
Assessing Daily Journal's Value [View article]
Assessing Daily Journal's Value [View article]
I do feel it's undervalued at the moment but I'm not too sure what I feel about the future. Munger is obviously great at allocating capital but he's 88 and Guerin is 82. What happens when they're gone, that could be in 10 years or next month (I know this could be said for most businesses, but I'm talking age related reasons). Then how much would the retained earnings be valued at?
Over the next 3-5 I think Sustain will be what drives the business or not. The traditional segment isn't growing, they've been able to increase margins by cutting costs and raising rates while subscriptions have fallen. How long can that last?
I have a write up on my blog, http://bit.ly/PdxdTK
Interesting situation though.
Matt
Google: Buy And Hold As Seeds Begin To Sprout [View article]
Logical and reasonable
A (Long) Look At Birner Dental Management Services [View article]
http://bit.ly/Lm93pF
A (Long) Look At Birner Dental Management Services [View article]
The dividend payout ratio being greater than 100% is true if you're looking at earnings. Earnings from BDMS are much lower than FCF because of the contracts with the dental offices being amortized. When looking at the ratio using FCF it's very different and not a bad thing. On FCF they're keeping, they're earning an acceptable return.
Charbroil,
I'm not concerned that the number of offices is flat/shrinking. I think it shows that they're not willing to put money into offices that aren't producing. As I said in the article, I think as long as revenue per office is increasing they're doing a good job. It would be ideal if they could keep finding offices to roll under their Perfect Teeth brand, but I'd rather have a company that's prudent with expansion than one that is only concerned with growing the number of offices with no regard of how each office is functioning by itself.
Dentsply: A Great Stock, But Not A Great Price [View article]
Dentsply: A Great Stock, But Not A Great Price [View article]
I came across XRAY after a reader asked me my thoughts on it. It was a bit too expensive for me so I didn't look into it with much detail.
I then found YDNT, expensive but looked into it, and afterwards looked into XRAY to have something to compare it to. Both look like quality companies.
Was wondering about your thoughts on YDNT, if you've looked at it?
A (Long) Look At Birner Dental Management Services [View article]
I haven't looked at XRAY.
I'll take a look and let you know
A (Long) Look At Birner Dental Management Services [View article]
beat me to it
New Frontier Media: Does Longkloof's Ante Hint at a New Bid? [View article]
Why Best Buy Is A Better Pick Than Amazon [View article]
Solitron Devices: Undervalued And Attractive [View article]
Yea it's thinly traded
junkyard_hawg1985,
I imagine you'll be rewarded for your patience
Hastings: Worth More Than It's Selling For [View article]
After looking at the filings again you are both correct regarding the rental depreciation expense I was including in the FCF numbers. Thank you for pointing out my mistake and clarifying the issue.
On a side note, this is decent example of the importance of a margin of safety, and if possible, to what my estimated value was based on FCF and net current assets. In this situation with my FCF estimate being incorrect (by a large amount) if I had initiated a position I would still be protected on an asset basis. While not as safe as I previously thought, I would still have "some" protection before my margin of safety eroded.
Thanks for the helpful discussion and look forward to hearing from you guys in the future.
mt
Hastings: Worth More Than It's Selling For [View article]
Thanks for the links
Howie,
Rental depreciation is still a non cash expense deducted on the income statement