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  • Gevo - Express Lube PR Refresh Rate And Value Prop Concerns Loom Large [View article]
    completely agree. Cash burn rate requires at least one or two pumps every 6 months for the warrants to be exercised.
    Aug 4, 2015. 05:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Addiction Centers - Our Final Opinion: It's A Castle Of Cards [View article]
    Good article, but I am not sure there is any real reason for the short right now. Wait to see the insurance companies actually cutting the rates and then pile into the position at that point. Right now, the growth story dominates this stock...No position either way for me, but watching with interest.
    Jul 22, 2015. 05:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China, Greece And Volatility [View article]
    Is there an inverse to UVXY? SVXY doesn't appear to be exactly twice XIV?
    Jul 8, 2015. 03:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lumber Liquidators Bulls Still Don't Get It [View article]
    pescara was promoted, not fired. Schlegel was the one fired..please read the filings again.
    Jun 15, 2015. 04:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weight Watchers International's Market Cap Is Still Obese [View article]
    Although I am full agreement that the equity is worthless and the 2020 debt is worth roughly 50 cents at best, I think the 2016 debt is paid in full. They are basically still cash flow positive and have roughly enough cash to pay the 2016 debt right now. I can't really see a scenario where WTW chooses to default on the 2016 debt....
    Jun 4, 2015. 11:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weight Watchers International's Market Cap Is Still Obese [View article]
    I don't think the 2016 debt is impaired at all considering the last time I checked the spread. That debt will be paid in full, but the 2020 is trading about 51/52 last time I checked.
    Jun 4, 2015. 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Company Documents Reveal 'A Problem' With Engineered Hardwood At Lumber Liquidators [View article]
    A few things: This is LL's statement:

    “Lumber Liquidators discovered in an internal review that a supplier had included an inapplicable certificate number on the label for a limited number of engineered hardwood flooring products. This labeling issue does not impact the CARB Phase II emissions compliance for these products. After consultation with the Company’s advisors and out of an abundance of caution, we held the products until the labeling could be revised. We have advised the California regulators that we relabeled the products to address this matter.”

    1. If the supplier included an inapplicable certificate number, why didn't the relabeling include the applicable one. Instead, the manufacturing source was specifically blacked out with a "sharpie" as per the specific instructions of the memo.

    2. If the certificate number is "inapplicable", why go through the hassle of relabeling. What LL is claiming is that the supplier added "extraneous information." If this were actually the case, then it would seem harmless to just leave it on there.

    3. I emailed Investor Relations at LL on Thursday morning to inquire as to this issue and they didn't respond to me. Only at 3:55 today, did LL put out a statement to a few journalist (Business Insider?) without posting a press release on their website or Business Wire.

    4. The level of detail in the memo on what is right and wrong way to re-label appears to be to suggest something that is very wrong with the original label, instead of the suggested "inapplicable" certificate number.

    I stated my conclusions in the article, but anyone is welcome to disagree with those conclusions, that's why I posted the entire memo in the article--you have the evidence now which is more than you had on Thursday.
    May 30, 2015. 12:48 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Company Documents Reveal 'A Problem' With Engineered Hardwood At Lumber Liquidators [View article]
    The company put out a statement to only one press outlet (Business Insider) regarding their relabeling. This statement confirms the validity of the document I posted in the article. If you believe LL's reasoning for the relabeling, you should buy after-hours. If, on the other hand, you are distrustful of anything coming out of this company (Our products are 100% safe...two months later, we are pulling all of our chinese laminates), then you should stay away from this stock.

    Your choice...I am just trying to disseminate useful information.
    May 29, 2015. 05:02 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Company Documents Reveal 'A Problem' With Engineered Hardwood At Lumber Liquidators [View article]
    The TPC is a Third Party Certifier. This is the entity that provides certification that the factories are producing compliant products. Based on my discussions with sources in China, and corroborated by this memo, LL has identified problems with this specific TPC. One source suggested that Sequoia (which is the entity that LL bought in China to help with its sourcing practices) was "paying off" SGS (which is the TPC). In an effort to distance themselves from this specific TPC, LL is now removing SGS from all of their products. This begs the questions whether these products are safe or not.
    May 29, 2015. 11:54 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weight Watchers International's Market Cap Is Still Obese [View article]
    WTW has been pushing the healthcare business for the past 10 years. It is like the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. It will probably never come and certainly not in time for the current equity holders.
    May 29, 2015. 09:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weight Watchers International's Market Cap Is Still Obese [View article]
    You are right on the total revenues, I was looking at the service, which didn't include product.

    That being said, the basic point is still the same.

    2013 to 2014, revenues were down 14.2% and operating income was down 40.6%. If revenues fall another 10% and operating income falls 35% in 2015, and continues on the same trajectory in 2016, there won't be enough operating income to cover interest payments for 2017. I might write up some of these numbers. I was waiting for another irrational spike in WTW share price to get a better short entry position (with long-dated puts), but it appears that may not happen anytime in the near future.
    May 27, 2015. 01:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weight Watchers International's Market Cap Is Still Obese [View article]
    Another point, I am happy to be convinced otherwise. Especially, if you provide some solid numbers are how operating income in 2017 is going to cover their interest payments.
    May 27, 2015. 11:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weight Watchers International's Market Cap Is Still Obese [View article]
    Transcripts: If revenues fall 16%, 2015 revenues will be $1,003B. 2014 revenues were only 1,181B. The problem isn't the revenue decline, but the operating leverage in the business. For example, from 2014 to 2015, revenue declined 13%, but operating income decline roughly 40%. That's was after a massive advertising and job cuts in 2014. Additionally, the more WTW cuts advertising, the worse the revenue numbers are going to get, as it becomes a vicious cycle. Another thing that WTW is "rationally" doing that is going to kill them in the end is raising their prices.

    Basically, WTW understands that they are having a hard time recruiting new members, but there are some members that are very loyal and this is a way to price discriminate, since the most loyal members will still join or stay despite the rising prices. In other words, in order to squeeze the profits from its current member base, WTW has raised prices, but this will doom its long-term ability to recruit new members.

    WTW might survive 2016, but once the enrollment numbers are out in early 2016, the market will quickly realize that WTW will not have the operating cash flow to continue to meet its interest burden in 2017, thus making the equity almost worthless as it "prices" in the bankruptcy in 2017.
    May 27, 2015. 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weight Watchers International's Market Cap Is Still Obese [View article]
    The 2020 debt payment will not be the final reckoning, that day will come much sooner. WTW will be able to make the April 2016 debt payment, but the interest costs for the rest of 2016 and 2017 will sink it, given the operating income declines, there will not be enough cash flow to meet those interest payments. The market will be forward looking in mid-2016 after the enrollment figures for early 2016 are released. At that point, you will see a $1-$2 stock, but their ability to turnaround the business at this point is no there. I actually don't think mgmt is that much to blame, given their business model of actually charging customers. It is hard to compete with free and that is what the fitness apps have brought to the table.

    To Transcripts: Please go and look at the interest payments scheduled for 2016 and the operating income declines that WTW is already projecting.
    May 27, 2015. 10:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why ITT Educational Services' Equity Is Worthless [View article]
    There is some debate as to whether Cerberus would force a bankruptcy. I have an opinion, but there are some factual things wrong with your post.

    Mainly, your point that there is NO FINANCIAL PENALTY for HCM 1. Currently, they are required to post a cash secured letter of credit, which is in essence being funded by the Cerberus loan. A loan with a very high interest rate. So, that is a huge and very costly penalty.

    I do not think that the DoE will allow them off of HCM 1 as soon as they file their financials. We will see about that. The Letter of Credit as it is currently written is required until 2019, with no language dictating that once financials are filed, the LOC requirement will be removed.

    Also, your debt payment schedule above is way off.
    May 27, 2015. 09:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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