Max Zeledon

Petrobras: Opportunity or Trap?

That's a very good point!


On Feb 06 09:36 AM sligoo wrote:

> Good analysis of PETROBRAS, but what about their international partners?
> They will want their share of any production notwithstanding the
> politics.

Petrobras: Opportunity or Trap?

Yes, it all depends on the the price of crude.


On Feb 06 12:25 PM kotika98 wrote:

> "Petrobras has enough experience in deep-water offshore operations
> to make them profitable"
>
> True, but as you yourself said it depends on the price of oil. If
> they are profitable with $50 oil, that means their overall operations.
> The deepwater stuff, especially anything thats going to be done in
> the future requires a price of $70-90 to be profitable. So that takes
> out all prospects for giant increases in production, on which the
> whole bubble was based.

Petrobras: Opportunity or Trap?

Ambet,

Where is the dogma? I presented facts...The free-market system is not in question here--crooks and greedy bankers are. The free market always exposes these crooks---in socialist systems we never know about it until they collapse entirely or run to the IMF for rescue. I think we need to call things what they are. We need more regulation and less speculation. That being said I'll take my chances in a free market system any day before I put my money in a socialist state or nationalize operation. But this is not the argument. I'm simply trying to explore this company's potential once we get out of this crisis.


On Feb 06 10:05 AM Amvet wrote:

> Max, your major interest seems to be economic dogma. At this point,
> after the free market idiots have ruined the world economy, stop
> the preaching about a company being bad because it is government
> owned. Be thankful that free market Madoff doesn´t control it.

Petrobras: Opportunity or Trap?

Yes, in four years a lot can happen. But right now I don't see this stock moving.


On Feb 06 01:47 PM User 352398 wrote:

> You missed one key issue here. In the next four years why US stops
> exploring for off shore oil, the market especially India and China
> triple their demand for oil we will see prices way over $50.. This
> stock is well positioned for a good long term run.

Petrobras: Opportunity or Trap?

Thanks for your input Michael. You provide an optimistic outlook. I worry a bit about the debt they are incurring, but if oil prices do explode again you are correct--Petrobras is a lucrative play. Myself, I will wait and see what unfolds in the next few months. I think Q1 and Q2 are going to be horrific. PBR will revisit those lows. It's only my opinion and I am somewhat bearish right now.


On Feb 06 05:00 PM Michael Fitzsimmons wrote:

> the current economic crisis actually helps keep petrobras and the
> brazilian government at arms length. petrobras needs capital to tap
> the huge oil deposits it has found. lula and the government know
> this capital needs to come from investors who would recoil if the
> brazilian gov. completely nationalized the company. your question
> about the price of oil in 2017 being high enough to make petrobras'
> production worth the cost? the answer is "absolutely". at the depletion
> rates currently being experienced in mexico, alaska, the north sea,
> and saudi's biggest reservoirs, combined with the reduction in oil
> production and infrastructure due to the current economic climate,
> the next oil spike leave 2008's high of $145 in the dust. petrobras'
> oil discoveries are the most significant on the planet in the last
> decade. if XOM thought they could buy PBR today, they certainly would.
> PBR at $30 a share is a steal. it was even more of a steal when it
> traded at $20/share during the market "turmoil". PBR will get funding.
> PBR will tap their resources. oil will be higher in the near future...and
> so will PBR's stock price.