Maxsoar

Maxsoar
Contributor since: 2011
Apple certainly took a beating for the issues in China that we reported here over the weekend. The company's fate is dependent on the management team's wisdom and determination right now.
World economies are all inter-connected today. If a war does happen between North and South Korea, Chinese economy will be greatly impacted, as will economies of Japan and many other Asian countries. This, in term, will impact economies in North America and Europe. Many stock indices will likely drop a meaningful degree. In that case Apple and Nokia's financial results and stocks will suffer too.
Yes, we agree that Nokia's products and prices are more competitive in the U.S. than in China.
Here is another interesting report talking about Apple and China Mobile:
http://cjky.it/Zvsaih
The reporter said that Apple and China Mobile need each other more than ever now and neither can afford not reaching a deal with the other, yet two sides are still tough on each other and don't want to yield. Sounds like the wonderful relationship between republicans and democrats for the past several years.
Toastypro,
Have Apple signed any firm deal with China Mobile? We haven't seen any news about it. Some latest news seems to suggest that China Mobile MIGHT offer iPhone later this year, but there is no announcement for any firm deal yet: http://bit.ly/10qazJU
Meanwhile, there are indeed reports saying that China Mobile in very tough in talks to Apple: http://onforb.es/13JoKRT
And that Apple seems to be running into all sorts of PR issues in China: http://bit.ly/16kEZCh
We did not mention this in our article because we are not sure how big these issues really are.
The reports in China showed mostly summary numbers and percentages from survey results and provided limited explanations for why the results were how they were.
In our opinion pricing is one of the reasons that contributed to drop in these two companies market shares. Indeed, so far it seems that they were able to make up the lost group in market share by higher prices. However, as all electronic products showed in the past, there is a real danger that Apple and/or Nokia will not be able to continue to charge huge price premiums on their phones in the future without losing much more grounds in market shares. As other readers' comments pointed out, unless they can come up with new products that are significantly superior than competitors in terms of functions, specifications, and/or form (appearance), more consumers in China (and possibly also in other parts of the world) may switch to Samsung, HTC, or domestic brands' products that spare their pockets a lot of money.
Thanks for the candid comment. We agree with many things you said. Unfortunately it is the nature of the stock market to have some companies quite overvalued on earnings or other multiples. In addition, we agree that the company lack strong competitive advantage and barrier to new competitors. If you are shorting the stock, be sure that you can absorb further push of the stock higher by some hedge funds before they decide to unload.
Microsoft's tendency in taking outsized pie of the profits from their partners in the supply chain is a concern as we mentioned in the article. Hope that this time Microsoft realizes that it needs Nokia as much to makeup the ground it lost to Apple and Google in mobile communication over the past decade. Nobody is pushing Windows 8 phones as hard as Nokia is.
Dear reader: Thanks for pointing out the typo. It should be "Last Year", not "Last week".
If the market sees a due correction in coming weeks, Amazon likely will outrun the market to the downside in our opinion.
True. It makes sense for Nokia to make Android phones to make its offerings more complete to consumers. However the company may have to consider how to best use its limited resource and have decided to put most resources in an area that it sees having the best chance to succeed.
Agree. In fact the company's trailing P/E is negative because it had a net loss last year. Forward P/E based on average analyst forecast is about 75. The stock has been valued at high P/E for years. Street just like to tout its future potential. We are not sure what can suddenly make the market decide to revalue the stock at much lower P/E.
Both Wal-Mart and Amazon are showing signs of wear and tear in our opinion. Both stocks may have topped and pull back in the short term.
That is correct. We wanted to focus on just the first product coming to the market imminently and what potential revenue that product is bringing to the company. We may conduct further research of LifeSci's revenue estimates of $1 billion for NAV4694 and $1 - $1.5 billion for NAV5001.
Dear Reader,
We think the many interested investors are just waiting to see the final clearance letter from FDA before jumping on board, although some probably have started accumulating for weeks. For a major milestone like this for a company, the market tends to have a "I'll believe it when it is written in stone" attitude and will gap up on the day of news, hopefully sooner than later.
Andrew,
Again the name change was a team decision, not mine. My partner felt strongly about having the team publishing using one single account to best consolidate our effort and readership. Seeking Alpha allows team publication but keep records of who is the main writer for each article. So, I neither tried to nor am able to hind the articles I published.
I am an investor who fully believed in the company because of all the extremely strong documents and information they released, and I felt passionate to share my thoughts of my investment here on Seeking Alpha. Now it appears that I probably have been completely fooled by the company's actions as many others have. Painful investment lesson to learn. I recently sold a couple other Chinese small caps I have because my confidence in this sector has dropped significantly. If a full-blown SAT/SAIC/SEC reconciliation done and signed by an American auditor is not enough to guarantee the numbers shown on a company's published income statements, I really don't know what else can.
Best,
Kevin
"The other piece everyone is missing is the fact that Blackberry put in place a mechanism to protect users from malware. Something that Apple and Google has not done with iOS or Android. "
Good point, and that is a very important factor for business users and people who care about security. However, we have not seen a reliable measure of exactly how more secure Blackberry phones are over iPhones and Android phones. So, for now it seems to be an experienced based, somewhat subjective assessment.
We are quite bullish on Sphere3D because SAAS is a young and fast growing market with a huge zoom to grow, and it is our view that Sphere3D's technologies and products are superior and about one year ahead of competitions. We think the company has the potential to be next Salesforce.com or Akamai. However, at this stage we need to wait and see how fast the company can reap the fruit of its R&D effort over the past 4 years and growth its sales.

If you are interested in knowing more about the company, please read their website and filing statements.
Wilsonia,
Yes the table in the article did show Z10's capability to expand to up to 32GB storage with a micro SD card. The 16GB storage is just a built-in memory.
The market seems to be seeing a loss-loss outcome of this new war today, which will be an unpleasant result for all investors. AAPL, GOOG, BBRY, and NOK all dropped.
Today the market seems to be seeing a loss-loss outcome of this new smart phone war, which if true will be unpleasant for all investors. Apple, NOK, BBRY all dropped.
Jay,

Good points. However, we think that you'll be surprised to find out how many people, especially kids and teenagers (no offense to them, just stating of facts) use and love a lot of junk apps. We are more inclined to side with your on this issue, although we are pretty sure that many Apple and Android loyals will say the opposite.
These are numbers published by the company or other sources. Sure, we all know that they may be for ideal usage in lab. Like MPGs for cars, end users can surely get less than the officially announced numbers.
Dear Editor,
Thanks for the prompt correction. Appreciate it.
Thanks for your comments, everyone.
According to the latest price trend, I think EDU is most likely to swing in a tight range between $16.5 and $17.5 if there is no news coming from the company.
Good luck with your investment!
Vaug,
I changed my account name to the company's because my colleagues decided to wrie articles using one company account. We changed our business model from spending a lot of time analyzng a company and getting very little in return to writing many small articles and quick trading or investment ideas to hopefully earning a small profit on each case.
We withdrew our analysis on LPH the day GEO article came out. As a group of outside public analysts, we cannot verify if the allegations are true, although we have to say that we are quite dissapointed by the company's lack of response. At this point there is nothing more for us to say about this company.
Kevin
Lionel,
I suppose that you are talking about TMV.
As an ETF that is designed to somehow track 20-year+ interest rate, theoretically it surely can be a hedge against higher long-term interest rates (including 30-year mortgage rate). However you need to keep these things in mind:
1. The ETF tracks inverse performance of 20-year "and up" treasury bonds. It does not guarantee to track bonds of exactly 30-year duration.
2. The ETF tracks 3x of the inverse performance of long-term bonds. So, theoretically it exhibits 3 times the effect of long-term interest rate changes. So, if you want to use it to offset potential increase of your interest expense, the ratio of your holding in TMV to your holding of opposing long-term debt instrument should be 1:3.
3. The ETF has management expenses and trading costs. It rolls over of its holding every month. So, it also faces additional short-term trading risks. Please read the ETF's prospects for detailed information.
There are also other factors to consider too. I suggest that you start with a small amount or sit at the sideline and just observe how the ETF moves when interest rate changes to get a better idea of how you can and should use it to hedge your interest rate risks.
John,
Thanks for pointing that out. Many writers here just use the short form CFA in their bio too. I know the full designation but didn't think people really care (again, there are a lot of "CFAs" on Seeking Alpha. Regardless, I've revised my bio per your suggestion.
Barnsey,
I mentioned all these points in my previous posts. Take a look:
http://seekingalpha.co...
http://seekingalpha.co...
http://seekingalpha.co...
I am a long-time believer of Actions, as I am with a couple other Chinese stocks. My portfolio was just chopped an arm and a leg off by a the collapse of a Chinese small cap that I overly weighted in my portfolio due to alleged financial mis-statements. So, I am now taking a more cautious eye toward Chinese small caps that are "extremely undervalued" from relative valuation standpoint basing on P/E, P/B, etc. and have stronger desire for the management team to take shareholders' demand of returning excessive money on balance sheet to shareholders as much as they can.
Actions seem to be using its interest income to buffer operating losses over the past several years during its "transition period", which is fine for me. However as a shareholder I am a little bit dissatisfied with the ROI of their huge amount of R&D spending over the years. In my opinion, the company need to either deliver stronger revenue/gross profit growth going forward or return more cash to shareholders in order to significantly boost shareholders' confidence and the market's interest in the stock.
Kevin
Kris,
Well you already said it yourself regarding low volume of a stock. Of course, most small caps have low volume simply because lack of attention and interest by Wall Street until someday somehow some bigger guys decide to invest in them or they come up with some hot technologies/products/... that attract a lot of investors' attention. ACTS certainly can have new products that do that. Hope that the new tablet product line is the turning point. We'll see about that.
Until then, yes, you'll have to face the low liquidity. This is especially a problem for short-term traders. That's why I've always thought that the stock is more suitable for long-term investors who are willing to wait for a long time for potentially big payoff (however some people can certainly argue the other way around).
Kevin
"the new chip in a new market is a tangible result from the R&D spend over the last few years."
That I certainly agree. What we need is for these new products to show a lot more muscle than past new products in terms of sales.
Kris,
Trading a stock around earning announcement is always a hard bet to make. What I can tell you is, the stock seemed to go down more often than going up after earning release. You can review past several quarters to see for yourself. If I were going to buy more shares I would wait until seeing last quarter's earnings before making a decision. Also important is the management team's guidance for next earning and entire 2013 (if they are willing to say about it in the conference call).