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MaxSoar Group is an investment analysis team. We research and analyze a broad spectrum of financial assets including stocks, bonds, mutual funds, real estate properties, and private companies. Our knowledge and connections are especially strong in mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, U.S. west,... More
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  • 投资心理之一:对于杠杆的贪婪和对于时间的恐惧 (Simplified Chinese)

    一,典型的热血型投资性格

    我有位朋友叫勇强,他的个性如他的名字一样:外向、开朗、冲动,比如他喜欢各

    种体育运动,还在自己35岁生日的时候买了辆手动挡的雪佛兰大黄蜂给自己作为生日礼

    物。

    或许由于他在5年前有了小孩,又或许他妻子的因素,4年前他开始涉及投资和理财。

    如果以1999年4月,他买入中国大陆最早的一支股票算起至今,他名义上的股龄已经长达

    14年,但遗憾的是自从他买入那支股票后,中国的股市进入破千的5年熊市,这些令他彻

    底放弃对于投资的信心。因此实际上,他真正开始投资,应该在4年前2009年。

    我曾经问起过他,为何他当初为何买入那支股票,他的回答很简单:因为跟风,还

    因为他听说那支股票有3倍增长的预期。然而事实上,他只是听说,只是凭借第二手别人

    的经验的信息做出了判断。虽然,谁也不可能预先知道政策底出现在2005年的"救救吧

    "(998),更没有人会想到市场顶会出现在2009年6124,然而事实是,确实有很多人,

    因为这10年的股票倾家荡产,也有很多人熬住了,翻了8到10翻的本金买来的新房和新车

    。勇强看得有些眼红,但他属于前者,第一次投资血本无归,割肉出来后本金是原来的2

    成,令他根本没有兴趣再入市;然而更难受的是,看着别人居然通过股票大赚特赚。他

    开始归纳和总结:

    二,等待真能换来翻倍的投资收益吗?

    1)低买高卖

    勇强归纳之一:当大盘在低点时,大多股票都存在较强的吸引力,而前提是,如果

    大盘还可以回到之前的点位甚至更高的话。怀着这样一种概念上的认识,勇强似乎意思

    到金融投资中存在一种叫"杠杆的东西",这种东西可以令人们从中获取暴利。当然如果人

    们可以"足够耐心的话"。

    2009年随着中国股市再次大崩盘,很多人对于股票彻底绝望,于是有些人将钱投向

    房产,有些人将钱投向基金定投,还有些人开始关注外汇和黄金。勇强在一次偶然的金

    融节目中注意到这样一条新闻:中国将开放人民币自由汇率兑换的限制,但不是立即马

    上将汇率体系变成自由兑换制,而是逐步进行。这也意味着中国的投资者将可以从商业

    银行渠道自由投资外汇,黄金以及相关延伸的期权和期货衍生品。

    勇强由此意识到,也许他的机会来了,因为这个市场是一个"自由市场",没有政

    策底,更没有市场顶,只要照着他自己的投资理解"低买高卖+耐心等待"不久的将来他

    应该可以通过这个外汇黄金市场赚一笔。

    2)杠杆效应-期权

    2009年1月,勇强来到某家商业银行的柜台,开通了他的外汇账号,同时听取银行理

    财人员的建议,他也开通了实物黄金,纸黄金、白银等系列账号,更令他兴奋的是,居

    然还有一种外汇产品叫"外汇期权",可以实现"小资金撬动5到20倍"不等的利润放大

    作用。于是,他决定"买外汇期权"。

    外汇期权的操作其实很简单,但原理实际非常复杂。简单来说,每一对外汇,比如

    :澳元兑美元存在一个实时外汇汇率,与此就有2个对应的"看涨"外汇期权和"看跌"

    外汇期权,对于一个"看涨"外汇期权,它的价格将随着实时外汇价的升高而升高、降

    低而降低,呈现正比例关系;反之,对于一个"看跌"外汇期权,则随着实时外汇价格

    的下跌而增长、上升而下跌,呈现反比例关系。

    以国内一般提供外汇期权商业银行为例:但无论看涨还是看跌,都有共同的时间限制,

    比如1个月或3个月不等,更长的可能 半年,但一半不会超过一年。而且,任何期权在买入时

    ,都可以以是实际价格1/6报价买 入,从而达到放大投资本金近15倍的效果。

    举例来说,勇强当时手头有8000美元(相当 于当时5万人民币),他买入一个美元兑澳元

    "看涨"期权,这8000美元放大15倍,等值 12万美元。而对于当时实时汇率,假如澳元

    兑美元汇率为0.6,那么如果汇率增长到 0.66,增长率达10%,那么勇强的收益是12万美元

    *10%=12000美元,而不是他本金8000的 10%即800美元。

    3)"别人贪婪的时候,我恐惧;别人恐惧的时候,我贪婪"

    也许是受到巴菲特这句至理名言的影响,勇强在听说2009年美国爆发金融危机,美

    元兑各国货币大跌时,他想起了10年前的中国大熊市,同时他更想起前不久的大牛市。

    于是,他豪不犹豫地花5000美元买入"2万份"澳元兑美元"看涨"期权,期权行权日3

    月26日。而他买入的日期是3月11日。

    勇强不知道的是,期权越到离行权日近,其持有风险越大波动也越大;勇强更不知

    道是,在外汇和黄金市场中,还有一个"超级政府"(美国政府会通过其美联储)来进

    行发行其国债或印更多的货币来对冲金融风险,从而影响汇市和贵金属市场。

    也许理论上,勇强是幸运的,因为他虽然误打误撞,买入的澳元期权快要到期,且

    买入时期权账面价值才只有0.25元,然后不到20天的时间,随着美联储的"2009年第一

    轮货币刺激政策"出台,澳元居然从0.65暴涨到0.72,而澳元的期权账面价值不是增长

    10%而是跳涨300%。

    4)在别人恐惧过后,更恐惧。

    但是实际上,勇强是不幸的,因为他做到了"别人恐惧的时候,我贪婪",却没有能

    做到"别人贪婪的时候,我恐惧"。事实是,他在3月11日买入他的看涨澳元期权后3天

    ,期权账面价格就从0.25跌倒了0.11,他的5000美金3天内蒸发了一半,这令他着实害怕

    和担心,恐惧令他失眠,更令他忘记多少人都在恐惧中,他又如何可以因为贪婪而暗自

    窃喜呢?!于是,他只是期望,价格可以回到0.25,让他保个本,甚至价格回到0.23他

    亏"跌停板"也算他认栽了。也许这样一种心理是可以称为:在别人恐惧的时候,更恐

    惧。

    5)在别人还没有贪婪的时候,已经恐惧。

    3月20日澳元期权随着澳元汇率的大涨而开始缓慢增长,一度回到0.18到0.2一线,

    这给勇强带了希望,他知道差不多他就可以解套了。于是,"别人贪婪的时候,我恐惧

    "又引导勇强,在3月23日一早将他的澳元期权在0.21时全部抛掉,他亏了13% 但他庆幸

    他至少没有赔一半。然后,2天后,澳元期权居然涨到1.25元,他错失了赚2万美元的大

    好机会。因为他,在别人还没有贪婪的时候,他已经开始了恐惧。

    三,时间是恐惧的源泉,杠杆是贪欲的诱因

    勇强的故事告诉我们很多,让我们回忆起中国十几年前的熊市和后来牛市翻转;

    也让我们理解到投资的多样性:比如除股票之外,还有外汇黄金,基金,以及房产等投资渠道。

    更让我们带着无耐的遗憾和微笑去回忆起那些"所谓经典得不能再经典,柠檬般的投资语录"。

    这些投资语录之所以称之为"柠檬般"是因为柠檬确实有营养,但它的酸不是直接可以食用。

    而这些投资的金科玉律都有一定的道理,可是通常我们理解起来都一知半解,或只是根据我们

    个人喜好和当时"主观的投资想象来套用"这些投资规律。事实上,我们永远不能克服的是我们

    自身欲望,归纳起来称之为:因为对于时间和未来的不确定性的恐惧;以及对于投资杠杆放大而引发的贪欲。

    克己,不急功近利,闲散资金,而非一夜暴富式的,也许是投资成功的真正奥秘所在,至少从心理层面而言。

    (click to enlarge)

    Apr 17 7:07 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Sohu.com (NASDAQ: SOHU) Is Likely In Line For Some Stock Price Correction

    1/18/2013 - Sohu.com (NASDAQ:SOHU) had a little Cross Doji1 at $48.28 after small range-trading. This implies that bulls and bears are still struggling around $49.00, while the bears start dominating the price trend.

    (click to enlarge)

    From 11/20/2012 to 1/02/2013, SOHU was up more than 30% or $11.57 to $47.99. A strong ending signal of this uptrend, a long Gravestone Doji2, appeared around $48, which was followed by three days of narrow range-trading. Since then, the bulls have lost its dominance over the price trend. Although the bulls retook some lost ground between 1/9/2013 and 1/15, they almost lost it again two days later. A moderate price correction is coming up after the price topped out near $50. However, it's still too early to conclude that SOHU has been bearish. If the bulls regain strength to boost the price above $50, then another round of uptrend can be expected. It is also possible that the bulls and bears keep struggling around $49 for a couple of days.

    It deserves to be mentioned that other Chinese Internet stocks such as Baidu.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:BIDU) and SINA Corp (NASDAQ:SINA) have the similar runs to SOHU. This might suggest the sector of Chinese Internet stocks be experiencing some price correction altogether.

    Investment recommendation for SOHU

    · Have band operation3

    · Sell covered call4

    · Buy straddles5

    1 Cross Doji - The doji is a commonly found pattern in a candlestick chart of financially traded assets (stocks, bonds, futures, etc.) in technical analysis. It is characterized by being small in length-meaning a small trading range-with an opening and closing price that are virtually equal. (From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia)

    2 Gravestone Doji - The gravestone doji is a type of candlestick pattern that is formed when the opening and closing price of the underlying asset are equal and occur at the low of the day. The long upper shadow suggests that the day's buying pressure was countered by the sellers and that the forces of supply and demand are nearing a balance. This pattern is commonly used to suggest that the direction of the trend maybe be nearing a major turning point. (From Investopedia)

    3 Band Operation - The band operation is a stock trading strategy of buying low and selling high within a certain price range.

    4 Covered Call - A covered call is a financial market transaction in which the seller of call options owns the corresponding amount of the underlying instrument, such as shares of a stock or other securities. If a trader buys the underlying instrument at the same time the trader sells the call, the strategy is often called a "buy-write" strategy. In equilibrium, the strategy has the same payoffs as writing a put option.

    5 Straddles - A straddle is an investment strategy involving the purchase or sale of particular option derivatives that allows the holder to profit based on how much the price of the underlying security moves, regardless of the direction of price movement. The purchase of particular option derivatives is known as a long straddle, while the sale of the option derivatives is known as a short straddle.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

    Additional disclosure: Maxsoar is a team of financial analysts specializing in emerging market stocks. This article was written by one of our senior analyst. Maxsoar did not receive compensation for this article (other than from Seeking Alpha), and we have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.Use of MaxSoar Financial and Investments LLC's research is at your own risk. In no event should MaxSoar Financial and Investments LLC or any affiliated party be liable for any direct or indirect trading losses caused by any information in this report or on its website MaxSoar.com.

    Jan 24 6:34 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Actions And Ritu Announced MP4 + GPS Solution For Mobile Devices

    Unlike many Chinese small caps, the last stock I initiated coverage, Action Semiconductor, is household brand name and well known company in China. There are wealthy dose of articles in China every month about the company's products (or consumer electronics using the company's products), technologies, major events (e.g. the grand opening of their new Headquarter in April), or simply a review or analysis of the company itself. The management team is very low key, kind of the total opposite of the management team of Apple or Amazon. Thus, they rarely actively showcase positive developments to their investors in the U.S.

    Last night, I found another news piece for ACTS written in Chinese that is quite interesting and very bullish development for the company in my opinion. For whatever reason, the company decides not to put out formal news release in the U.S. for this significant development. I am just going to post the news here on my personal blog to share with my closest followers and people who are the most interested in the stock (in other words I don't want to spook the management team's intention of keeping this under the radar for now).

    Without further due, here is the big deal: Actions and the 2nd biggest Chinese electronic map provider Ritu (http://ritu.cn/index.aspx) announced a joint-developed solution that put GPS function in all MP4 devices (which pretty much means all portable devices with mid to high end multi-media function)! This news was reported by two of the biggest electronic news sites in China:

    http://www.eeworld.com.cn/qrs/2012/0613/article_10553.html (6/13)

    http://gps.yesky.com/378/32258878.shtml (6/14)

    I see this as a win-win situation because both companies can benefit greatly by integrating its own product with the other company's products. I think it is likely that most portable devices that use Ritu GPS map will use Actions' chipset too. According to this report - http://tech.qianlong.com/33443/2012/06/19/4682@8051747.htm - in 2011 there were 6.86 million units of portable GPS devices sold in China, a YOY growth of 31% from 2010. I call this "traditional portable GPS market" because these devices provide mostly GPS function but very limited multi-media functions. Because this market is only at its infant stage, annual growth rate in the next several years likely will be even higher. Assuming that it grows 40% this year, there will be 9.6 million units sold, of which about 1.05 million units will belongs to Ritu.

    Now, that is only for the traditional GPS market. New portable MP4 devices that adopt Ritu and Actions' solution can easily dwarf that number as the units of MP4 sold in China every year is probably in hundreds of millions.

    Disclaimer

    I am a completely independent analyst and am not paid by any company of which the stock I cover or write articles about. However, I may have long or short position on a stock I cover or write about at any time.

    My ratings and/or analyses of a stock only represent my personal view on the stock and/or my assessment on the probable movement of the stock price in the next 12 months. They are by no means a guarantee of performance on any long or short trades on a stock and should not be relied upon solely for buying or selling a stock. Every investment, no matter how compellingly appealing it seems, involves risk. Investors should do their own due diligence and consider personal risk tolerance, preferences and needs when making an investment or a trading decision. All materials are subject to change without notice. Information is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed.

    Jun 19 9:27 PM | Link | Comment!
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