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Mayank Rasu  

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  • Too Big To Fail: The Inside Story Of How Wall Street And Washington Fought To Save The Financial System -- And Themselves [View article]
    Correct and sorry for not explaining the issue in its entirety. I was trying to make a point that stock price comparison pre crisis and post crisis is not appropriate due to a myriad of factors with reverse stock split being one of them. The reverse stock split did reduce the number of stocks outstanding by 20:1. However, the selling of stake by the US government has more than negated the effect of the stock split. Number of stocks outstanding went from 2.7 billion in 2008 to 130k in 2009 to 2 billion in 2011. Treasury sold another 1.3 billion of stocks in 2012 so this number will further increase in 2012 (Waiting for the 10k for exact number). Therefore I insisted that market cap pre and post crisis is a better indicator.
    Feb 18, 2013. 10:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Too Big To Fail: The Inside Story Of How Wall Street And Washington Fought To Save The Financial System -- And Themselves [View article]
    Easy there vkmo. AIG is a value bet but you are missing a huge point. Don't forget the 20:1 reverse stock split that AIG did during peak crisis. Don't compare the pre crisis and post crisis stock price as that is not a fair comparison due to the reverse stock split. Compare the market cap which is already more than half of the pre crisis peak. The stock price of $75 will be equivalent to pre crisis highs not $500. You can thank me later :)
    Feb 15, 2013. 09:02 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could Apple Be Working On The 'iBank'? [View article]
    Very interesting article. However, the idea is not so novel and definitely not accretive to the share value. There was an Economist article on how in certain African countries, pre paid cellular phone credit is used as proxy currency. The monetary policy in those countries is not so robust so this alternative currency has taken off nicely.

    However, ibank is not going to be so easy. Becoming a bank means piling yourself with a ton of regulation and scrutiny. Apple will come under the ambit of Dodd Frank and Basel and will have to comply with capital rules. Also keep in mind that the margins earned in banking is not even close to the margins APPL has become used to. Not sure if the stock holders will pe very pleased if Apple decides to become a bank.
    Feb 13, 2013. 06:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Pop Then A Drop For The Great Netflix Stock [View article]
    Very thorough analysis. Thanks for pointing out that this emperor has no clothes. Netflix is able to keep the lights on despite negative cash flow from operations only due to to its access to capital markets. It will have to file for chapter 11 if it's access to capital is jeopardized.
    Feb 5, 2013. 09:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Things You Need To Know About Netflix (And Probably Don't) [View article]
    Smart headline. Can't say the same about the article. Although you have not explicitly mentioned it, but it's obvious that you like this stock and want your readers to like it too. Unfortunately, none of your "need to know stuff" is cogent enough to create an epiphany of sorts for NFLX shorts. Also, please abstain from using conclusive terms such as "content supremacy". As a netflix subscriber, I have been fed bottom of barrel content for a very long time now. If it had not been for the $8 a month I would have bid farewell long ago. NFLX is an ok company with a sub par management team. Carl Icahn fueled speculation can pump the stock for only so long.
    Feb 4, 2013. 02:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is More To Leap Wireless Than Merger Speculation [View article]
    Thanks for your comment Bob.

    Agree with your point that the premium may be scaring away potential bidders. However, it should not be very difficult for a good management team to capitalize on the favorable trends in the industry and leverage their existing resources (which are plenty) to cause organic growth. However, the present management team has been performing sub par.
    Feb 4, 2013. 02:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: 6 Bucks For A Penny [View article]
    One of the best articles on NFLX out there. Thanks for the invaluable insights. As you have summed up fairly accurately, the valuations for NFLX does not seem to matter at all which is extremely frustrating indeed.
    Jan 29, 2013. 10:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: How Dumb Does Carl Icahn Think We Are? [View article]
    NFLX is undoubtedly a good company with a decent business model. I am also (grudgingly) willing to accept your 50MM subscriber projection. However, please keep in mind that there is a strong chance that Netflix's upside will be capped by the content providers. The business model is hostage to content providers to a large extent. Moreover, with serious competition emerging in the industry (Amazon, Google etc.) there are serious risks that can not be wished away.
    I am a netflix subscriber and I like it too. Will I pay more than $10 for the subscription? I doubt. Although, I don't have data to back my point but I believe that the price elasticity of demand in this industry is high given there are so many cheaper alternatives to access content (Free download using Torrent being one of them.)

    In short, Netflix is a good company but the valuations are simply insane and strengthens my belief that big investors and analysts can manipulate the market for a prolonged period of time. I will wait for the stock to go to 200 (which it will before the next earning) and then buy long dated $60 puts.
    Jan 28, 2013. 12:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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