Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Mayo Welch  

View Mayo Welch's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • A Stream Of Opportunity: Investing In Water [View article]
    Hey Frank,

    Water is typically viewed as a 'safe' or 'boring' investment. It isn't quite as exciting as new tech and large IP portfolios, but it is a necessity of life. Fun fact: More people have access to a cell phone than basic plumbing. I do agree though particularly with the water systems starting degrade in the US. There is a lot of money to be made.

    Thanks for reading,
    -Mayo
    Aug 26, 2014. 02:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kraton Performance Polymers, Inc.: Plastics to Bank on [View article]
    I am bearish for the midterm of the economy. So, I think we will have another crash. So, it is trading down 50% in what was a bullish market, and now heading into another recession I think we could see it hit $15.
    Sep 5, 2011. 09:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • September Bullish, Midterm Bearish And What I'm Watching [View article]
    I agree 100% with your article.

    I am short for the midterm long for September. Here is my dilemma; We have next to no economic growth, but yet we have inflation. That means we should be in an expansionary stage of the economy. The next move for monetary policy would be to curb inflation by reducing the money supply( increase the Reserve ratio or increase interest rates) Big Ben has already said interest rates will remain low. If he increases the reserve ratio then banks will be even less obliged to lend.

    So, no growth + inflation = a depreciated dollar and that would trigger a flight out of the dollar and into another currency or commodity. Flight from the dollar would also lag investments pulling us back into a recession.

    I don't see how that would be possible in only a matter of a month, but over the next two quarters we will be given enough information and enough time steer our ship into those waters.

    I admit I could be wrong on my analysis, and if I am then thank G-d I am only short for 15% of my portfolio.
    Aug 31, 2011. 05:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • September Bullish, Midterm Bearish And What I'm Watching [View article]
    But if the economic system that the prices are built on are flawed then the nominal prices are also flawed in that perception. Real prices will eventually catch up just as they did in the 1970's inflation is a ticking time bomb.
    Aug 31, 2011. 09:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hewlett-Packard Is Undervalued, A Potential Buy: Second Half Of Year Will Be Critical [View article]
    Great article! I had a suspicion that HPQ was trying to turn into an IBM, many of their smaller acquisitions over the past several years have been firms that focus on the IT side of businesses.
    My only complaint is that HPQ appears to have thrown the baby out with the bathwater. I am still a little nervous about HPQ, the timing and the size of adjustment just seems wrong... A double dip and HPQ may be had for umpteen dollars a share.
    Aug 24, 2011. 02:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kraton Performance Polymers, Inc.: Plastics to Bank on [View article]
    Some people enjoy reading the same material twice. I prefer to give my readers a different point of view. The recommendation is still a solid recommendation based off my analysis.

    Yes, a Debt to Equity of 0.7 is a little high but it is not a deal breaker. They are leveraged heavily due to recent one time events. Once those events are adjusted you get the estimated target price of $34 being fundamentally reasonable.

    I do appreciate your comments.
    Aug 23, 2011. 03:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Makes An Economic Faux Pas [View article]
    While I would like to debate with you on that topic, I am slightly confused why "compatition" is in quotations.
    Once established they are virtually impossible to knock out. I would like to note Apple and Microsoft. Microsoft is slowly losing market share. While I would like to agree with you that they will just need a few live streams to compete with cable. You have overlooked the fact that cable costs a great deal of money to actually place.
    That is important because of the bandwidth caps that many providers are now placing, which have affected many households who only utilize Netflix. Verizon for example could easily do what you have suggested for Netflix, and they would simply add it to your cable bill, " for $25 a month have access to all the latest releases." So, it would be like a premium movie channel service, which is what Netflix is trying to become. Cable providers can cutout the middle man and do it themselves without having to worry about customers going over the bandwidth cap- Comcast utilizes Xfinity which does not count towards the users bandwidth cap.
    So, I have to disagree based on several assumptions: 1) Greed is the motivator, 2) Netflix is more reliant upon the cable service providers to reach homes, 3) based on the prior two assumptions cable companies will realize that Netflix is the middleman just as Comcast already has.
    Thank you for your comment.
    Aug 23, 2011. 02:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Makes An Economic Faux Pas [View article]
    That is a unique thought on the subject, I had not thought of it like that. If you are right, which I think you are, then that is another economic indicator that the stock price is unsustainable. I appreciate your perspective.
    Aug 23, 2011. 02:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Makes An Economic Faux Pas [View article]
    I agree 100%, it threw me off when I was informed of the price hike. Made me step back, but they are still a great value, at least in my case... the service not the stock.
    Aug 23, 2011. 02:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish Outlook With Caution as a Guide [View article]
    I would encourage you to write about that! While I am aware of the different metals my issue is when allocating the percentage of the portfolio, at least for my clients, they tend to want to see the metal so more often then not I will have them invested in funds as well as the real tangible metals.

    The reason for that is coins, specifically government issued coins, have a collectors value to them, so even if the precious metal declines in value the coin will retain or even appreciate in collectors value.

    In regards to the full range of metals. I will be honest when I say the only metals I know a little about, in your list, are Platinum and Palladium. They both are used to a heavy degree in many different industries which gives them value.

    I would love to see a write up on your take of the metals. Perhaps all that glitters is not gold or silver, but maybe Rhodium. The problem I am having is figuring out the best way to put people in these other metals easily efficiently and with minimal risk, and me not knowing the market for them magnifies the risk so I chose not to advise either or for: Platinum, Palladium, and Rhodium.

    I appreciate your comment and hopefully readers will take note and find an investment opportunity I missed.
    Aug 10, 2011. 01:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish Outlook With Caution as a Guide [View article]
    Great comments! I agree with that buying on a bounce like today would not be a good idea. The technical side of the market is horrible and that is my concern for the near term. Long term I am not so concerned about.

    As for job creation, the government needs to deregulate the private sector and let them breath. "Ten Thousand Commandments 2011" broke down regulatory costs of employers who had under 20 employees. The research found that employer's were paying upwards towards $5,000 in regulatory fees per employee! That is insane! That on top of minimum wage- thanks to collective bargaining- the government has effectively overpriced potential employees.

    Fiscal responsibility will not be achieved with the current system of government. Bureaucracy, Politicians, Special interest groups. Those are the things that are eroding the government that was first established. So you will need to "take the money out of politics" - as my professor says- before you can fix this problem.

    Gold and silver are set to gain on an economic decline. Gold has demand from investors, but industrial demand for silver is still prime. Silver has a unique problem that has not been solved to my knowledge... Silver is used in soldering so about 2 ounces of silver are found in desktop computers and that silver is now bonded in a way that makes the silver unusable. The majority of the worlds gold supply now sits in vaults of governments, while silver is being consumed. The consuming factor of silver makes it a better play in my book.

    Thank you for your comments
    ~Mayo
    Aug 9, 2011. 10:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish Outlook With Caution as a Guide [View article]
    Well I am glad that is the only argumentative point you can make with my logic.
    Aug 9, 2011. 06:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish Outlook With Caution as a Guide [View article]
    I do agree with a lot of your comments. The work by Mancur Olson has shown that the collective bargaining -turned special interest groups- are doing a great deal to harm the government that was established. It is truly a tyranny run by the minority to rule over the majority, but with over 5000 special interest groups established and over 7,000 pages of new regulations being issued each year, we truly have a hobsian hell in Washington.

    That aside, separation from government this day in age is rather difficult due to the footing- mentality if you will- and until that changes the country won't recover in terms of the Constitution.

    The dollar however shouldn't be looked at with the apparent anarchy in Washington, because the dollar is still the reserve currency for the world.
    Aug 9, 2011. 05:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tower Group Is a Solid Buy [View article]
    With the fundamental analysis I concluded that the stock was undervalued. Looking at the management, P/S, and growing revenues was the basis of the undervalued opinion.The fact that you will be receiving a safe 3.25% yield is the "icing on the cake" so to speak. I do appreciate the comment and understand where you are coming from.
    Jun 27, 2011. 12:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Research In Motion: Fundamental Breakdown [View article]
    You are correct, with RIMMs book value at 18.29 it is roughly 1.4 times the 27.75

    However, when you calculate out the intangible assets that the company has it has a book value of only 13.17, which means that RIMM at the time of writing was at 2.1 times its book value less intangibles.

    The reason I choose to use the intangible value is it is a more concrete estimate of how much you would receive for your shares if the company liquidated.
    Jun 20, 2011. 07:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
29 Comments
31 Likes