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Mayo Welch

 
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  • George Soros: The Guru Outlook [View article]
    I agree that Soros is a very smart man, I disagree with the rash generalization that Liberals are smarter than Conservatives.
    Show me statistics and tell me in which favor are the results skewed, I would also like the sample size, or population size and the standard deviation and variance of both, or perhaps the use of a bi-cumulative distribution on intelligence? I would hope one would not try to convince someone by using a hyper-geometric statistic, where results are almost always varied due to small sample size.
    Oct 29 12:49 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A 2010 Investment Playbook [View article]
    A few questions: 1)The government currently operates Medicare, the postal service and Amtrak all of which have been on the verge of going under. So, if put in charge of a complex issue such as healthcare, what will be different?
    2) The dollar is still king; while I would like to agree, you must admit a growing concern of emerging countries purchasing gold over our debt, which leads many to think our dollar does not have the same clout it used to.
    3) The bond market; We currently have an anticipated 2.5 trillion dollar obligation this year. That is 33% of our GDP, in order to payback that debt, we will need to finance more debt, so our debt will pay our debt. So, we have a catch22; "Increase our interest rates and lose our credit status, don't increase the interest rates and issue more debt that nations aren't really pleased with." The incentive for investing in America is sadly going down the drain.

    I am just curious what you think, my thought process could be flawed.
    Jan 10 10:48 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Good Value Stocks Nearing Buy Territory [View article]
    1. VZ I would personally rather own AT&T, they have been in the business for quite sometime, and they are still working close with Apple. VZ has been scaring me with its poorly executed phios expansion
    2. XOM is a buy. Oil always makes a run in the summer it seems, so this pull back is nice. Particularly if natural gas takes off in America XOM is already positioned for that.
    3. GS I dunno enough to comment on their position so I won't.
    4. AAPL I might miss the train, but the opportunity cost for my investment is missing in AAPL, I could make more faster elsewhere. If the IPAD flops that will cost Apple a pretty penny, not only that, but the expansion into business is not going swiftly, and the last tablet PC's that came out flopped. Again, I would invest in AT&T and piggyback any profits while enjoying a dividend. This company is no longer a growth company so it should give incentive to investors. I know in about three years I will be eating those words, but that is where I am at now.
    ~Mayo
    Jan 31 11:08 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Two More Takes on the Politics of Bank Regulation [View article]
    Northern, I do agree that greed is a big part of the banking mess. What we must keep in mind though that your money is insured by the FDIC, which was nice of the Federal Reserve.
    If we stifle what the banks can do, we will create a braindrain where banks will go elsewhere to bank. Banks work like other companies, if they can make a profit they will do it, at the same token a bank is one of the most difficult businesses to run. If we tell the banks that they cannot participate in the markets we stifle their earnings, and they will pass that on to us in forms of higher interest loans, and lower interest CDs and savings accounts.
    So, I vote against having more regulations on banks, and instead would advocate that this is America and you can choose where to bank, but if you are tired of having your dollar devalued then contact your congressmen and senators and demand the FED be removed, because those are the guys that are hurting the American people now. The FED, which is a private bank working for the government made $50,000,000 in profit last year when we had Americans losing jobs. Shouldn't the government be able to use some of that to help with our debt? No, because the FED is a private bank that has no relation to our government other than charging our government a certain percentage to control the United States money supply.
    Jan 23 05:38 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Economic History in Perspective: 'Freefall: America, Free Markets, and the Sinking of the World Economy,' by Joseph E. Stiglitz [View article]
    Aussie, go read up on the 1920-22 depression, study how that was handled in comparison to the great depression, then tell me which one works.
    Jan 25 08:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Economic History in Perspective: 'Freefall: America, Free Markets, and the Sinking of the World Economy,' by Joseph E. Stiglitz [View article]
    American in Paris- In response to your quick witted comment, "Come on Pundit, give us your solution. I don't think you have one ..."
    The Federal Reserve received 50 billion dollars in profit. Instead of paying the Federal Reserve more money to print another trillion why not add a windfall tax to the Federal Reserve and require them to pay an income tax, That would give the United States more wiggle room in their budget. Perhaps requiring a type of gold reserve to American citizens, similar to bonds, but backed by silver (paid for through income taxes on the Federal Reserve) This would reduce current money supply levels (people paying for the silver backed currency) this would establish more wealth for Americans quickly through their dollars and through their silver bonds that would be created, corporations could invest as well and as US dollars flow in more silver can be purchased to cover new bonds. All working within a budget. I know budget is hard for some people, but it is required by all.
    ~Mayo
    Jan 24 03:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Money Magazine Still Hates Gold, So Buy It [View article]
    I started buying gold in the early 2000s and stopped buying in 03, I recently sold this October. I understand where you are coming from, but you must be careful. There is no "investing in gold" one cannot invest in gold, one can buy gold. Investing involves getting a higher return ON your money, not the return OF your money as you are doing when you purchase gold.
    'It's "hoarding gold", not "investing in gold", and a classic case of "data-picking"'
    If you are telling people that it is good to own gold, gold you can place in your hand, then you must also warn them that when they buy it they will be paying premiums of upto 20% on spot, which means the value of gold must increase 20% for them to break even. So using your term of "investing" why would you invest to put yourself 20% in the hole. Particularly in this market. Then on top of that when you try to actually sell it you will be haggling the price, selling gold for face or spot is not as easy as buying it at face or spot, reason being. A company will not put themselves in the hole 20% hoping silver prices will rise, so they will buy it from you only at a discount.

    'buying gold at $400 an ounce a few years ago was a much better idea than buying it at over $1,000 today, but, trying to "value" gold is a fools' game.'

    If adding "value" to gold is a fools game, then why are you trying to tell people to purchase gold? That would be a foolish thing to do as you are valuing gold.

    Gold, however, to be quite honest is a yellow rock not particularly rare, but easy to divide and weigh. Central Banks Purchased over half the gold that was mined last year to store in their vault. Industrious use is going down due to the high prices of gold.

    If you are going to recommend a precious metal I urge you and your readers to begin looking into silver, which is more industrial, much more rare, and typically can't be recycled as gold can.

    Over all I agree 100% with you that money magazine is a joke. They missed the housing crisis, they were late on oil, and they screwed up on gold, but sometimes a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while.

    ~Mayo
    Jan 23 08:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • September Bullish, Midterm Bearish And What I'm Watching [View article]
    But if the economic system that the prices are built on are flawed then the nominal prices are also flawed in that perception. Real prices will eventually catch up just as they did in the 1970's inflation is a ticking time bomb.
    Aug 31 09:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Makes An Economic Faux Pas [View article]
    While I would like to debate with you on that topic, I am slightly confused why "compatition" is in quotations.
    Once established they are virtually impossible to knock out. I would like to note Apple and Microsoft. Microsoft is slowly losing market share. While I would like to agree with you that they will just need a few live streams to compete with cable. You have overlooked the fact that cable costs a great deal of money to actually place.
    That is important because of the bandwidth caps that many providers are now placing, which have affected many households who only utilize Netflix. Verizon for example could easily do what you have suggested for Netflix, and they would simply add it to your cable bill, " for $25 a month have access to all the latest releases." So, it would be like a premium movie channel service, which is what Netflix is trying to become. Cable providers can cutout the middle man and do it themselves without having to worry about customers going over the bandwidth cap- Comcast utilizes Xfinity which does not count towards the users bandwidth cap.
    So, I have to disagree based on several assumptions: 1) Greed is the motivator, 2) Netflix is more reliant upon the cable service providers to reach homes, 3) based on the prior two assumptions cable companies will realize that Netflix is the middleman just as Comcast already has.
    Thank you for your comment.
    Aug 23 02:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tower Group Is a Solid Buy [View article]
    With the fundamental analysis I concluded that the stock was undervalued. Looking at the management, P/S, and growing revenues was the basis of the undervalued opinion.The fact that you will be receiving a safe 3.25% yield is the "icing on the cake" so to speak. I do appreciate the comment and understand where you are coming from.
    Jun 27 12:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • On the verge of his first State of the Union address, President Obama plans to propose a three-year freeze on some discretionary spending - items that make up $447B, or 17% of the budget. Defense, Social Security and Medicare (among others) would be untouched by the plan. The goal: saving $250B over the coming decade.  [View news story]
    Those programs make up roughly 82.023% of the budget (some where very close to those numbers.
    The treasury has printed trillions as is... Hell our short term debt is estimated around 2.5 trillion. We are working in trillion dollar deficits, so I doubt we are going to see a big change particularly over 10 years that is what? 25 billion per year?
    What could be done is tax the banks including the Federal Reserve, make the guys who operate the Fed by law only allowed to receive the average American salary, and slash pay for senators and congressman, as well as all Whitehouse officials.
    That will light a fire under the people responsible for fixing this mess, because right now they are living high on the hog, why a good majority of Americans are worried about losing their jobs and putting food on the table.
    Jan 26 01:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wednesday Outlook: The Fake Rally Follies [View article]
    I will go ahead and toss myself to the sharks and point out what "economic" indicators have done for those that watch them. Purchase of gold and oil in 2000, selling of oil in 2005 and out of the market by 2007 just in time to see the banks start falling like dominoes. So, I will stick to looking at "economic" indicators and caution with trends which turn into bubbles. Currently with an estimated 2.5 trillion that we will need to keep our government afloat we are in for a correction due to macro-economic factors that cannot be ignored.
    Jan 7 07:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kraton Performance Polymers, Inc.: Plastics to Bank on [View article]
    I am bearish for the midterm of the economy. So, I think we will have another crash. So, it is trading down 50% in what was a bullish market, and now heading into another recession I think we could see it hit $15.
    Sep 5 09:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • September Bullish, Midterm Bearish And What I'm Watching [View article]
    I agree 100% with your article.

    I am short for the midterm long for September. Here is my dilemma; We have next to no economic growth, but yet we have inflation. That means we should be in an expansionary stage of the economy. The next move for monetary policy would be to curb inflation by reducing the money supply( increase the Reserve ratio or increase interest rates) Big Ben has already said interest rates will remain low. If he increases the reserve ratio then banks will be even less obliged to lend.

    So, no growth + inflation = a depreciated dollar and that would trigger a flight out of the dollar and into another currency or commodity. Flight from the dollar would also lag investments pulling us back into a recession.

    I don't see how that would be possible in only a matter of a month, but over the next two quarters we will be given enough information and enough time steer our ship into those waters.

    I admit I could be wrong on my analysis, and if I am then thank G-d I am only short for 15% of my portfolio.
    Aug 31 05:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hewlett-Packard Is Undervalued, A Potential Buy: Second Half Of Year Will Be Critical [View article]
    Great article! I had a suspicion that HPQ was trying to turn into an IBM, many of their smaller acquisitions over the past several years have been firms that focus on the IT side of businesses.
    My only complaint is that HPQ appears to have thrown the baby out with the bathwater. I am still a little nervous about HPQ, the timing and the size of adjustment just seems wrong... A double dip and HPQ may be had for umpteen dollars a share.
    Aug 24 02:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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