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Mazen Abdallah

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  • When To Short Groupon [View article]
    Funny how Groupon tells us how many subscribers they've added, but not how many actually buy groupons...
    Dec 9 03:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • When To Short Groupon [View article]
    Thank you for the kind words on the not so kind words I have to share on Groupon, lol.
    Dec 9 03:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Zynga Is Going To Have A Hard Time Justifying Its $14 Billion Valuation [View article]
    I don't think Zynga can survive. Their best friend Facebook could put them out of business if they so willed.
    Dec 8 07:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How You Should Play Zynga's IPO [View article]
    Well I have to say that besides not advising him to take the 5th, his attorney did a good job prepping him for the testimony. He was quite sly in how he responded. In particular, he often claimed that he "did not intend" to do such and such. Specific intent is an essential element to any criminal charge or conspiracy thereof. You must perform an act with the specific intent of breaking the law. While his testimony was absurd, he didn't give much that could be used against him...
    Dec 8 07:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Bullish Sign For Ford: Dividend Reinstatement [View article]
    I have to agree, the reinstatement of a dividend is a bullish sign, if not for the fundamentals of the story, for the psyche of the investor.
    Dec 8 07:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LivingSocial Raising Money On Its Own; Forget An IPO For Now [View article]
    Doesn't the recent trend of internet IPOs remind you of the dark days in the late nineties?
    Dec 8 12:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How You Should Play Zynga's IPO [View article]
    Brian, thanks for the IPO analysis. I'm glad you're humble enough to admit that you can't explain all the phenomena you discover. Regardless of explanation, this is vital data I would like to know for future purposes. Let's see if the trend continues with Zynga.
    Dec 8 12:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: Zynga's Number 1 Frenemy [View article]
    I wouldn't necessarily short Zynga, at least not in the short-term. These IPOs tend to take off regardless of fundamentals. My suggestion was if you were to get involved in an internet IPO, why not wait just a few months for the mother of them all, which would be Facebook.
    Dec 8 11:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Groupon's Performance So Far Means For Its Future [View article]
    The driving force behind the big jump on Dec. 7th was the news release that competitor LivingSocial had completed another round of funding giving the company a $6 billion valuation. That could only bode well for Groupon since it is larger in scale.
    Dec 8 11:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T (T) claims it sold 6M smartphones in the first 2 months of seasonally strong Q4 - more than the 4.8M sold in all of Q3, and near its quarterly record of 6.1M. The news is a positive for Apple (AAPL), given the iPhone's dominant share of AT&T's smartphone sales. Multiple analysts (I, II, III) have recently talked of strong Q4 iPhone demand.  [View news story]
    The stock took a big hit immediately after last quarter's disappointing iPhone sales, but people failed to realize that that should have been expected since the iPhone 4s had not launched. It was a prime opportunity to get in long and if you missed it, Apple touched its 200 day moving average on black Friday at around $363. Once it did that, it immediately popped up to the circa $395 range. Look for it touch back in the $380s before it makes another run in the 400s.
    Dec 7 02:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time Warner Head Bearish On Netflix, Bullish On TV Everywhere [View article]
    Netflix is slowly but surely becoming a victim of the fact that there is little to no barrier to competition in the field. With respect to online streaming, Amazon, Google, Apple iTunes, Comcast Xfinity, HBO Go, etc...are too much for Netflix to keep growing at a healthy rate. The DVD by mail system is also in jeopardy with Coinstar's Red Box and Blockbuster's vending machines. Netflix's stock has taken a big hit, but I believe worse is yet come...
    Dec 7 02:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LinkedIn: Living In Facebook's Shadow [View article]
    The recent advent of all these internet company IPOs seems awfully familiar...
    Dec 6 01:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Option Trade For Groupon Bulls [View article]
    I would agree this is a viable short term options strategy and it should only be used as such. It will definitely be a roller-coaster ride so the faint of heart should steer away. Speculation and the "growth story" will drive the near term, but Groupon's business model will cause serious problems in the future.
    Dec 5 05:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Groupon's Business Model Doomed To Fail [View article]
    First, I don't believe any variation in the current business model can justify Groupon's current valuation. However, I think the key component to succeeding in this highly competitive area are the merchants! If Groupon can somehow think of creative ways to strike exclusive deals with big name merchants, then they have a shot. If someone wants a coupon with a particular merchant, they will be forced to subscribe with Groupon to gain access. By analogy, think of ATT when they were the only authorized cell phone carriers of the iPhone when it first came out. How Groupon will have these merchants begging at the door is a tough question.
    Dec 5 03:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Groupon's Business Model Doomed To Fail [View article]
    I don't think that all business models are doomed to fail. I am traditionally against absolutes. I will agree with you that the growth rate, as opposed to the "survival rate," eventually drops on a long enough timeline. For those who short, the crucial question is finding the high-flyer in the market that will stop growing the earliest. Groupon is an easy target because the only reason they receive a high valuation is because of their top-line growth, not the bottom-line. With no recorded profits and none in sight, any slight bump in subscriber growth will prove to be disastrous.
    Dec 5 03:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment