Medhanie

Medhanie
Contributor since: 2011
Let's get this straight: you want to buy into a company with negative earnings; which operates in a highly competitive industry (cut throat really); in an industry that's likely to be marginalized if not obsolete in a decade (the world is quickly moving towards renewable - especially Europe); whose total revenue has been stagnant for the last three years; has only $2.2B in cash (very small for an energy company)... good luck with that. This is a Short!
Given everything you know about Twitter (and I'm sure your knowledge is sufficient), do you think it's worth $17B? If yes, buy. If no, sell. Currently, it's worth that much. Can anyone really justify that price? How much in profit in the next 10 years must Twitter generate (any DCF model with a generous P/E of 30) so that it's worth $17B? The answer is $600M. However for fiscal year 2014, it had revenue of $1.4B with gross profits of about $1M, and an annual revenue growth of about 100%. Expect that 100% to slow over time because if it hasn't accelerated by now there is no reason to expect it to do so anytime soon. More importantly, YOY increase in gross profits is also about 100%, so that means gross profits will reach about $600 by middle of the ninth year (in absolute terms - no discounting). The problem with this is that we're being VERY generous. How many company do you know of that double their gross profit every year for 10 years? How many technology companies that are 15 plus years old do you know of that have a P/E of 30? And most important of all (this is an ode to my accounting friends), no one uses gross profits to value a company. You use net income, but Twitter is posting losses, so my quick and dirty valuation used gross profits. However, net income is always less than gross profits (often by a wide margin), which means Twitter (as it stands now) almost has no chance of achieving $600M in annual profits ten years from now. I could be TOTALLY wrong, which is COMPLETELY POSSIBLE. But if what I'm saying sounds reasonable, than Twitter isn't worth $17B and you have to sell.
By the end of the year, Luminex should be trading at around $30. More good news is coming!
Reasons to buy:
1. great leadership: they continue to improve margins and reduce cost.
2. Great products: very innovative and cost effective machines, which should be in every medical lab in short order.
3. High institutional ownership. Nearly 80% of shares are owned by institutions.
4. Insiders continue to buy.
5. High short interest: nearly 22 days to cover, meaning a small upswing can trigger a big short squeeze.
6. FDA clearance of two key products expected by the end of the year.
You put it all together - Cha-Ching!
Get ready for a long nice ride with Synergy. The company is about blow up and make me moneeeeey!
This company will be bought for no less than $2B by the end of the year..... Whose in?
Thanks :)
The Ad Com panel can only recommended approval or rejection of Amarin's application. There is no alternative. They can use the reduce-it trial as reason for rejection now. But to an earlier point that was made in the comment section, there is nothing new or iinteresting in this article.
By a VOTE... who believes Amarin will get a positive recomm??
VOTE NOW!!!
Thanks... you should read some of the comment. It's entertainment.
If and when it is approved, $100M valuation is not out of the question. It's safety and ease as well its effectiveness (albeit modest) can't be ignored. Also keep in mind that the system remains implanted in the trial patients, meaning by the time the ad-com panel meets, Entromedics can show additional and continual weight loss. In which case, we would see a nice spike in the stock price. remember that Arena went through a similar collapse before rebounding substantially post ad-com recommendation.
The article has NOT been edited!
You know what they say: when you can't attack the message, attack the messenger. You haven't said one thing that disproves or doubts my position. All of you need a little sanity.
Thank you!
Finally, a kind word :)
Given the CEO's experience with Lovaza (Remember that Joe Z. was the COO of Reliant Pharma and helped launched Lovaza), I think Vascepa can have a good launch. I would be surprised if it didn't. My contention is on the long term outlook of the company. Amarin has only one drug with little protection from potential competitors. I know everyone wants to point to the patent but if Amarin can develop a drug very similar to Lovaza while Lovaza is still within its patent life, what make you think that someone else can't do to Vascepa what Vascepa did to Lovaza?
The NCE would be that protection. But what are the chances of getting a full NCE? If chances are low, you short; if chances are high, you go long.
You can disagree with this but you need substantial support for that disagreement.
That's kind of the point. Effectively, Lovaza and Vascepa are the product. It just happens that Vascepa is a purer version of Lovaza. And Lovaza still has its patents. So, how is it that Amarin developed Vascepa without violating Lovaza's patent? The answer is that the patent protects the manufacturing process not the product. Meaning another company can develop another process and create a similar if not better version of Vascepa. This is why the NCE is so important. Hope this helps.
Don't disagree with anything your saying, but what is the company worth? That's what we invest in. Great product but not necessarily a great investment.
My name is Medhanie
Waiting to $6, would consider $7 but wouldn't be surprised if it goes to $5.
Wow - you googled me. I should be flattered. I didn't google you. I did educate myself - clearly more than you.
Just so I am clear on what you're saying, you don't think there is any other process outside of Amarin's to purify fish oil, including what GSK does with Lovaza? More importantly, other pharmas with giant R&D and legal budgets can't figure one out? Is that what you are saying?
I know you got money in Amarin, but don't let money make your brain go stupid.
What barrier do you see for GSK, Pfizer, or any large pharma with billions on its balance sheet? If Vacepa get approval for other indications and other pharmas are able to create their version of Vacepa, what competitive advantage does Vacepa have then? By the way, I have bough and sold Amarin many times.
Seriously before you open your mouth, think a little.
Any part of my argument you disagree with? Again, a couple of good days does not make a trend.
Was long... now, no position.
Volatility is inevitable... If you're a day trader, congrats.
I actually have used Groupon and I find that you get what you pay for. To me, it's equivalent to Priceline's Name Your Own Price model; you can get a flight super cheap but there is a heavy price to pay in terms of connections, time day you flight leaves, and the fact that it is non-refundable or transferable. I think most Groupon customers go into it aware of that.
Nice article.... I agree with you. However, I would chances at approval at 50/50. Reason being that it was about the same efficacy of Belviq with a lot less side effects. Also, remember the FAD was essentially mandated by the congress to bring treatment option for obesity onto the market. BLOC seems to fill that need for options without the heavy effects of Qsymia, Contrave, or Belviq or any of the other surgical options. I also don't know if the stock is worth $5 with approval. Like you said, the market potential is very limited, but I do see it trading as high $3 and may be even peak around $3.50.
Did I elicit some insecurity in you??
Why do you think Groupon is a massive fraud?
Unfortunafely, we don't have many options. Once BGI owns a majority of the oustanding shares, it can simply force the rest of the shareholders to sell at the offer price. In effect, it's a done deal.
It sucks... sorry.
Management own about 17% of the shares. They have committed those shares to the tender offer. Beyond that there were no additional announcement of compensation althought the the existing management is expected to stay on, which presumably includes some new compensation structure that may be more lucrative than the old structure.
Do yourself a favor and stop talking. You're an idiot.
Don't know who that is.
Their products have a good reputation. There were very few customer or doctor complaints, even outside of Amazon. I agree they can't live forever on what they have done. But under the right leadership, they can def build on what they have and have done. This is why I say I like Obagi for now.
Thank You!