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  • Cheniere Energy: Time To Buy The Drop [View article]
    Let's get this straight: you want to buy into a company with negative earnings; which operates in a highly competitive industry (cut throat really); in an industry that's likely to be marginalized if not obsolete in a decade (the world is quickly moving towards renewable - especially Europe); whose total revenue has been stagnant for the last three years; has only $2.2B in cash (very small for an energy company)... good luck with that. This is a Short!
    Aug 22, 2015. 03:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter Is Beefing Up Content With Extended NFL Partnership [View article]
    Given everything you know about Twitter (and I'm sure your knowledge is sufficient), do you think it's worth $17B? If yes, buy. If no, sell. Currently, it's worth that much. Can anyone really justify that price? How much in profit in the next 10 years must Twitter generate (any DCF model with a generous P/E of 30) so that it's worth $17B? The answer is $600M. However for fiscal year 2014, it had revenue of $1.4B with gross profits of about $1M, and an annual revenue growth of about 100%. Expect that 100% to slow over time because if it hasn't accelerated by now there is no reason to expect it to do so anytime soon. More importantly, YOY increase in gross profits is also about 100%, so that means gross profits will reach about $600 by middle of the ninth year (in absolute terms - no discounting). The problem with this is that we're being VERY generous. How many company do you know of that double their gross profit every year for 10 years? How many technology companies that are 15 plus years old do you know of that have a P/E of 30? And most important of all (this is an ode to my accounting friends), no one uses gross profits to value a company. You use net income, but Twitter is posting losses, so my quick and dirty valuation used gross profits. However, net income is always less than gross profits (often by a wide margin), which means Twitter (as it stands now) almost has no chance of achieving $600M in annual profits ten years from now. I could be TOTALLY wrong, which is COMPLETELY POSSIBLE. But if what I'm saying sounds reasonable, than Twitter isn't worth $17B and you have to sell.
    Aug 21, 2015. 05:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Luminex beats by $0.16, beats on revenue [View news story]
    By the end of the year, Luminex should be trading at around $30. More good news is coming!

    Reasons to buy:
    1. great leadership: they continue to improve margins and reduce cost.
    2. Great products: very innovative and cost effective machines, which should be in every medical lab in short order.
    3. High institutional ownership. Nearly 80% of shares are owned by institutions.
    4. Insiders continue to buy.
    5. High short interest: nearly 22 days to cover, meaning a small upswing can trigger a big short squeeze.
    6. FDA clearance of two key products expected by the end of the year.

    You put it all together - Cha-Ching!
    Aug 3, 2015. 08:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Synergy Pharma up 13.6% on Paulson stake disclosure [View news story]
    Get ready for a long nice ride with Synergy. The company is about blow up and make me moneeeeey!

    This company will be bought for no less than $2B by the end of the year..... Whose in?
    May 15, 2015. 07:25 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Republican Plan for Destroying America [View instapost]
    Thanks :)
    Dec 27, 2014. 05:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 3 Most Likely FDA Outcomes For Amarin's Vascepa [View article]
    The Ad Com panel can only recommended approval or rejection of Amarin's application. There is no alternative. They can use the reduce-it trial as reason for rejection now. But to an earlier point that was made in the comment section, there is nothing new or iinteresting in this article.

    By a VOTE... who believes Amarin will get a positive recomm??

    VOTE NOW!!!
    Oct 14, 2013. 05:04 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin's Descent To $5 [View article]
    Thanks... you should read some of the comment. It's entertainment.
    Jun 27, 2013. 12:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EnteroMedics VBLOC Obesity Device Fails [View article]
    If and when it is approved, $100M valuation is not out of the question. It's safety and ease as well its effectiveness (albeit modest) can't be ignored. Also keep in mind that the system remains implanted in the trial patients, meaning by the time the ad-com panel meets, Entromedics can show additional and continual weight loss. In which case, we would see a nice spike in the stock price. remember that Arena went through a similar collapse before rebounding substantially post ad-com recommendation.
    Apr 2, 2013. 01:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin's Descent To $5 [View article]
    The article has NOT been edited!
    Mar 9, 2013. 03:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin's Descent To $5 [View article]
    You know what they say: when you can't attack the message, attack the messenger. You haven't said one thing that disproves or doubts my position. All of you need a little sanity.
    Mar 7, 2013. 03:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin's Descent To $5 [View article]
    Thank you!

    Finally, a kind word :)
    Mar 6, 2013. 07:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin's Descent To $5 [View article]
    Given the CEO's experience with Lovaza (Remember that Joe Z. was the COO of Reliant Pharma and helped launched Lovaza), I think Vascepa can have a good launch. I would be surprised if it didn't. My contention is on the long term outlook of the company. Amarin has only one drug with little protection from potential competitors. I know everyone wants to point to the patent but if Amarin can develop a drug very similar to Lovaza while Lovaza is still within its patent life, what make you think that someone else can't do to Vascepa what Vascepa did to Lovaza?

    The NCE would be that protection. But what are the chances of getting a full NCE? If chances are low, you short; if chances are high, you go long.

    You can disagree with this but you need substantial support for that disagreement.
    Mar 6, 2013. 05:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin's Descent To $5 [View article]
    That's kind of the point. Effectively, Lovaza and Vascepa are the product. It just happens that Vascepa is a purer version of Lovaza. And Lovaza still has its patents. So, how is it that Amarin developed Vascepa without violating Lovaza's patent? The answer is that the patent protects the manufacturing process not the product. Meaning another company can develop another process and create a similar if not better version of Vascepa. This is why the NCE is so important. Hope this helps.
    Mar 6, 2013. 05:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin's Descent To $5 [View article]
    Don't disagree with anything your saying, but what is the company worth? That's what we invest in. Great product but not necessarily a great investment.
    Mar 6, 2013. 04:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin's Descent To $5 [View article]
    My name is Medhanie
    Mar 6, 2013. 04:55 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment