Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed


View Medhanie's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Who Is Mad At Amarin? [View article]
    At the very least, Amarin will get 8 years of exclusivity. So, that is an upside. However, if Amarin goes at it alone and receives only 8 years, there is no way in hell that it can extract the true value of AMR101. Can't do it - impossible!
    Jan 16, 2012. 07:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Who Is Mad At Amarin? [View article]
    I hope you're right... but better shareholder and pr relation is not too much to ask for. More importantly, companies release statements about a wide range of conducts, including litigations, all the time. So, I don't see much excuse.
    Jan 16, 2012. 07:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Who Is Mad At Amarin? [View article]
    Hi Yazzbro -

    I am long Amarin but I am no longer buying the stock. I think it has great potentiall opportunities, but it appears that the board/CEO may not be capable of exploiting. Moreover at this point, the likelihood of acquisition is greatly diminished as the CEO and Board have raised more money, signaling that they want to go at it alone. There is no reason for all that money unless they plan setting up shop themselves.

    More importantly, it seems silly that Amarin would raise money when its stock price is hovering near its year low, especially when the stock will likely see a pop when it gets approval. The whole thing seems a bit amateurish. That was the point of my blog.

    I am hoping for the best and preparing for the worst.

    In regards to insider buying, the CEO did drop a bunch of his shares last year. But I believe most of the selling was already planned for. I don't think he's acquired more since.

    I do share your belief that its a potential blockbuster, but given all the uncertainties, I am not as bullish as I once was. The irony of the CEO is that he was directly responsible for the development and ultimate sale of Lovazza when he was the COO of Reliant Pharmaceutical. Given, this I thought he would handle things better.

    Nice comment - thanks.
    Jan 16, 2012. 07:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Who Is Mad At Amarin? [View article]
    That's a bigger claim to make than to saying Amarin is a $10 billion dollar company.
    Jan 16, 2012. 06:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Attractive Puts To Write For 2012 [View article]
    Don't know much about the Bank of Hawaii. With that said, unless the Puts you write are for three month expiration, it is very risk for all the companies you list with the exception of maybe BOA. Ironically, I think the best company worth writing a medium and long term Put for is Netflix. This is a company is the real danger of trading in the $10 dollar range within the 12 to 24 months.
    Dec 20, 2011. 01:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin Must Be Acquired - And There Are Plenty of Potential Suitors [View article]
    I agree. That's why a buy-out is the best option. In regards to partnerships, they are a great way for a small biotech to gain a foot print. However in the case of Amarin, there is a good chance a competitor will improve on the quality and purity of the drug and thus at the very least eat into Amarin's market share. In fact, I was hearing from a little birdie that GSM may be trying to improve on Lovaza as to stay competitive.
    Jul 24, 2011. 09:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Biotech Valuation Part 2: Market Size and rNPV Applied to Prolor Biotech [View article]
    A discount rate of 20 percent does not seem appropriate to me. More importantly, the way you derived the rate is not appropriate. Clinical stage bio-techs don't lend themselves to a DCF valuation. The best (and in my mind only way) to value a clinical stage biotech is by determining market size, potential market penetration, and using average/median acquisition multiples for similar firms with similar size. And apply the multiple to EBITDA - not earnings. Smaller firms will have lower earning on the same revenue than would a larger firm - economies of scale, knowledge, etc.

    Clearly you put in a lot work in writing this article, but you cannot value a biotech using the method you detail. I'm also not sure if you're trying to value the potential/right stock price or acquisition price. In regards to stock price, buying clinical stage companies is pure speculation. It really is. You're hoping a whole of things go right. If you're pricing an acquisition, there are too many variables to account for before determining a value. That's why you use historical multiples.

    Valuation clinical stage biotechs is not like valuing a startup tech firm. Biotech is a completely different animal in itself.
    Jul 23, 2011. 04:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin Must Be Acquired - And There Are Plenty of Potential Suitors [View article]
    Well Doc... I can't argue against the expertise of a doctor, especially one that does research. But let me try.

    1. You can't minimize the side effects of Lovaza or any other OTC fish oil supplement. Belching and strong after-tastes are not attractive things. Moreover while Lovaza is targeted for those with triglyceride levels of at least 500, Amarin starts at 250. Only about 6 million Americans have levels of 500 or more versus at least 40 million who have levels of 250 or more. More importantly given Amarin's few side-effects, it is likely that it will be to prescribed to those with borderline high levels, which is above 150. In which case, the market expands to 100 million Americans. Btw, I did not mention the overseas market. To your "Co-Pay" point, I don't know the exact co-pay for Lovaza or what Amarin's may be, but I do know that every pharma gets around the co-pay nonsense using coupons, discount cards, and other array of methods. Moreover, most physicians don't even know the price of the drugs they prescribe let alone their co-pay So, that is not a concern for me - at all.

    I also don't know where you got the info that Amarin lowers LDL and HDL. It doesn't touch either, especially HDL.

    2. In regards to your fish oil supplement argument, they are already on the market and yet Lovaza's sales increase every quarter. The reason is that supplements do not have the purity or potency to be effective for those with triglyceride level above 200. Would you trust supplements or Amarin to lower your cholesterol when you know your life depends on it? Come on Doc... Answer the question. The clock is ticking.

    Two final thoughts and perspectives:

    1. American Heart Association (AHA) recommends 2 to 4 grams of fish oil per day. That may seem small, but it’s not. For instance to get just 1 gram of omega-3 fatty acids, you would need to eat one to two servings of salmon, four to seven servings of cod, or four servings of shrimp per day. Supplement will not provide this dosage.

    2. The Center for Science in the Public Interest also recommends that you essentially avoid supplements. Supplements are an unregulated industry that just about all the time make unsubstantiated claims. Even if you were to believe what they claim, you would still need to take anywhere between two to fifteen big soft gels a day to meet the AHA’s recommended dose. No responsible doctor would prescribe supplements to his/her patient with dangerous levels of triglycerides.

    I hope this helps.
    Jul 23, 2011. 01:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin Must Be Acquired - And There Are Plenty of Potential Suitors [View article]
    I agree. I say wait until approval to sell. However, forget about doubling your money; you should be very disappointed if you don't at least triple.
    Jul 23, 2011. 01:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin Must Be Acquired - And There Are Plenty of Potential Suitors [View article]
    Normally, licensing and partnerships are great options for a starup like Amarin. However in this case, there is the substantial risk that another biotech can/will develop a more purified form of fish oil using a new process. Keep in mind that Lovaza is about 84 percent pure while Amarin101 is about 93 percent. This is why Amarin is more effective with fewer side effects and may eventually render Lovaza obsolete. However if another biotech purifies fish oil to 95 percent, it may render Amarin obsolete as well. In that case, investors lose big. However if Amarin is sold now, then the buyer take in all the risks while investor keep all the rewards.
    Jul 23, 2011. 01:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin Must Be Acquired - And There Are Plenty of Potential Suitors [View article]
    Thanks for the article link. I'm not surprised to hear that although as a business move it doesn't make much sense. Cardiovascular is by far the biggest category and it will remain as such. Pfizer’s statement may be a preemptive measure against a hit on its stock price as Lipitor's patent expires. However regardless of what Pfizer does, its stock price will take a big hit once Lipitor goes generic. If the folks at Pfizer are smart, Amarin would be a great acquisition for them. Not only is it guaranteed to be a cash-cow, but Pfizer may be able to bundle it with Lipitor. By adding a new unique ingredient to Lipitor, it may effectively extent it patent. Keep in mind that many with high LDL cholesterol also have high triglycerides, and given that both Lipitor and Amarin have few side-effects or problems with drug interactions, they may easily be bundled. That is why I though Amarin makes sense for Pfizer. However, if Pfizer doesn't want it there are plenty of other pharmas.
    Jul 23, 2011. 12:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin Must Be Acquired - And There Are Plenty of Potential Suitors [View article]
    It depends, but typically for a clinical stage biotech, I would say sell before the NDA is filed. No need to risk FDA rejection if you can; however, with Amarin the likelihood of approval is good. Therefore, Yes - waiting would be better. I'm not saying sell the company now. I just don't want to hear that the CEO is considering on marketing it alone. Selling the company is the best option.
    Jul 23, 2011. 12:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin Must Be Acquired - And There Are Plenty of Potential Suitors [View article]
    The biggest pharma in the world cannot exit the biggest pharmaceutical category in the world. I didn't see the statement, but that would be retarded. Keep in mind, I was also simply using Pfizer as an example. There are plenty of other potentials.
    Jul 22, 2011. 06:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin Must Be Acquired - And There Are Plenty of Potential Suitors [View article]
    You're welcome!
    Jul 22, 2011. 06:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Small Cap Biotech Companies With Future Potential [View article]
    It's not HYPERACTIVE sexual desire disorder (HSDD). It is HYPOactive sexual desire disorder. Women with Hyperactive sexual desires don't need Libigel; they need a man (or men) with astonishing stamina.

    The problem with Libigel is that there are plenty of testosterone based creams, pill, or whatever else out there. None are labeled for women sexual dysfunction, but just about all are prescribed for it. Moreover, as we know from estrogen hormone therapy, there are many complications associated with hormone therapy that can make them very dangerous.

    I know Libigel has had some positive safety results in the phase II trial; however, phase II is not truly indicative of safety potential. Hence why, phase III is necessary. And if phase III provides good safety results, competition will be fierce. Testosterone is a common and easily applicable hormone that every one and their grandmother can market. Biosante's claim to fame is that their product is a gel - not a compelling competitive advantage.
    Jun 24, 2011. 06:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment