Long/short equity, special situations, biotech, healthcare
Long/short equity, special situations, biotech, healthcare
Contributor since: 2015
Each time the options expire and they have to buy the net month's options they are paying a new set of premium that dissipates in value over time. This process is repeated over and over every single month. In your example, if UGAZ goes from 1.86 to 6 over some time, of course you will make good money. That is possible. However, where Contango kills you is when the commodity stays in a trading range. The value of the commodity doesn't change over time, but the ETF will eventually approach zero since month after month you are paying the time premium that dissipates anew, every month.
You're instinct is correct. However, in times where it stays in a trading range, buyers are choked by the contango.
Why do I think Buffett knew this was happening?
The dude stole from my Incyte short article. I'll have to write another one soon.
I'm not surprised by this. I think we're just starting to get the traction where Telomerase inhibition becomes the "hot" area of biotech and CAR-T takes a back seat.
That statement as Geron being possibly riskier than Bellicum is backwards.
I'm good with Curiousity's article
Lots of dividend payers got a boost up since the December Fed Fright. Many up 10%++.
Keep in mind, there will be decreasing demand with a manufacturing slowdown, which looks to be in the cards. Still, I'm bullish, just not too excited.
Just checking on RGLS since I've been tempted but waiting on a good price; as you know, you make your money on the buy, not the sell.
Hey Ed, Regulus price collapse looks tempting, but I'm concerned they are floundering. Are you still in that name?
Ed, it is just the historical record. I compiled the data in my article.
Chug chug chug down it goes
I am not surprised with the decrease in earnings estimate, but keep in mind in low interest rate environments P/E average is closer to 18-19
It's not like we're almost out of NG, the market is just working as it should, and late as always.
Because the selling volume doubled?
Whereas I'm not going to say it won't get to that level. Today's low will likely be very strong support. It may retest it, but most likely we go up from here. I'm putting money to work tomorrow unless we crash through support.
We're within 2.5% of major support line for IBB, may be a good time to pick some CELG soon.
Thanks for the links. Bentek indicating EIA says declines through February, which I'm guessing is not particularly unusual, but still a good sign.
natty, how is that happening with consistent declines week after week in rig count?
"Anything and everything is at risk and it's difficult to quantify that risk." In that case Ed, I'm assuming you pulled off some of your hedges as in this environment premiums get lofty. Is that that case or are you still 140% hedged?
Gigem, I see what you mean about production, however, the forecast on the link you provided sure seems bullish for NG pricing in 2016 and 2017, if only moderately so. Was there something I missed that you see further pressuring prices from current levels? I don't see it on the EIA site.
Interesting new info, thanks!
As much as I feel comfortable with Geron, I feel the economy as a whole will have significant drag as more boomers retire and sucking up resources. I remember in the movie "Inside Job" when Christine Lagarde spoke of her conversation with Treasurer Paulson regarding the financial crisis. She said, "we're watching this tsunami come in and all your talking about is what swimsuit we should wear", or something to that effect. I get the same feeling thinking about the baby boomers retiring soon with all their sicknesses and unhealthy eating habits being supported by a relatively smaller working pool. The next president is going to have to address this in some way.
Market is just punishing speculative assets. Geron gets lumped in with the rest in a basket approach for hedge funds. I don't think it is anything to do specifically with GERN. This is just a market process and we'll get through it at some point. Money availability is tightening and this space always needs new money hence the punishment in the market.
Maybe topline data in March and not until May for data analysis.
Telling his cronies, "g'head let'r rip to $2.90, I'm loaded to the gills as of 10 am"
The frankenscience will take decades to be commercial.
For those looking for opportunities beyond GERN take a look at ONTY who just had BVF fund founder join the board after buying up 19.8% of the company.