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Meinolf Heptner

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  • Alphaform AG: Buyer Beware, 3-D Hype Can Be Dangerous [View article]
    not sure about where to put this:

    today SLM Solutions http://bit.ly/1s9HwIH IPOed in Germany.

    I consider that one much more to be a 3D-stock than Alphaform...
    May 9 07:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alphaform AG: Buyer Beware, 3-D Hype Can Be Dangerous [View article]
    Current News: http://bit.ly/1my6ClX

    Mr. Vetter has been shown the door. Net Loss for 2013 is 6,2 MEUR. In the future everything is going to be better...
    Mar 28 07:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Alphaform AG: Buyer Beware, 3-D Hype Can Be Dangerous [View article]
    Sorry, but I am not aware of any one of them being public.

    I posted the list to illustrate my point that just putting the label "4D" on a company is not enough to make it a worthwhile investment.

    What one can do, is to check out the financials of some of the german companies because they are obliged by law to publish their numbers.

    I just did this for FKM Sintertechnik (http://bit.ly/1mEjgNS) -incidentally founded at a similar time as Alphaform, in 1994- and they seem to make about 1.5 MEUR on a balance sheet volume of 9 MEUR. THAT is profitable.
    Feb 27 01:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Alphaform AG: Buyer Beware, 3-D Hype Can Be Dangerous [View article]
    Something about the competitive situation in Germany: http://bit.ly/1po43mp

    you see how crowded the space already is...
    Feb 25 07:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alphaform AG: Buyer Beware, 3-D Hype Can Be Dangerous [View article]
    Dear Mr. Anderson,

    we do agree on the fact that one institutional investor is said to be investing at EUR 3.40; I look forward to their 3%-filing, to find out who they are.

    Maybe it is the research house that brought out the note on Feb7th, maybe someone else.

    
    On a side note:
    I visited the LabDay in Chicago last week and scouted over the almost ubiquitous 3D-vendors exhibiting there. On the OEM-side 3D, Stratasys, EOS and a few others were present, as well some service providers one of which was ARGEN. Alphaform was not there.
    Feb 24 07:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alphaform AG: Buyer Beware, 3-D Hype Can Be Dangerous [View article]
    The more I read from you, the more it seems to me you are cherry-picking facts.

    1) the economic reason behind the market granting very high valuations for some companies is the hope that they might become enormously profitable later; usually that is for companies with some inherent competitive advantage, hence my definition of 3D regardless of what others say without much explanation.
    And being just in a fast-growing-volume market WITHOUT any substantiation for such competitive advantage DOES NOT justify using comparative valuation with the former.

    EOS -Alphaform's supplier- which I consider a competitor to 3D and the like states it like this: "Service Providers - Further end user companies use laser-sintering services offered by more than 800 service providers worldwide. EOS is the leading system supplier to these service providers. http://bit.ly/1chHR81

    => not much differentiation, too little capital
    still elegant though

    
    2) How much money has Alphaform made cumulatively in the last 6 years? You tell me ;-)

    Finally, I think this discussion does not add a lot of value for the SA-public anymore. I think there is enough information available know for investors the develop their own decisions. I am however still amazed about the energy with which you are "pushing" your probably fairly large readership into a german microcap mainly on relative valuation grounds.

    Maybe there is a cultural difference between us...
    Feb 17 12:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alphaform AG: Buyer Beware, 3-D Hype Can Be Dangerous [View article]
    Trying to answer to the last 3 comments:

    I actually agree to a lot of what both of you say,

    -the Analysis IS only concentrating on Alphaform
    -I think that 3D-stocks in general are most likely highly overvalued
    -comparative analysis CAN be a useful tool.

    BUT we seem to draw different conclusions...

    Let me add/ (and hopefully) clarify a bit:

    1) My main impetus was to criticize the other SA-Article claiming "exceptional value"; it is not in my opinion and I think I have clearly laid out the case and you do not challenge my factual statements. PLUS I have known the company for years and seen how unsuccessful the management was and is. The thing that never changes is the people and for as long as the management remains the same I would not expect success, EVEN if the business model was sound.

    2) The elegant trick to justify relative valuations hinges on subsuming Alphaform into the 3D-category. This has 2 problems, first is it properly defined and second, does Alphaform fall into it? I would say rather not, because a significant part of the sales is from MediMet's precision casting (hardly AM) and also because in my definition of 3D you would need some proprietary technology -which according to my knowledge DDD, SSYS, VOXJ have, but Alphaform has not. They are just a user of such technology (and currently do not even have the money to properly invest in it).

    3) Even though I checked the boxes "long" for the other names, they are all small positions, mainly for the purpose of keeping an eye on the space. Before I would commit real capital I would need to either be reasonably certain that a company has a long-term sustainable competitive advantage that makes it likely it will grow into a decent valuation and/or find that decent valuation at the time of buying.

    4) A last word on comparative valuation: it is in my impression most (and mis-) used in circumstances of overvaluation (remember eyeballs?). So you might diagnose relative undervaluation, when in reality it only is less bad overvaluation.


    My suggestion:

    Let the numbers and the market decide...

    I stick to my forecast, that even if the market might take this stock higher in the short run, it will be substantially lower in the medium and long-term UNLESS they really get the business to turn around, which I do not expect.
    Feb 16 12:06 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alphaform AG: Buyer Beware, 3-D Hype Can Be Dangerous [View article]
    Revenue is not an end in itself, profit is the goal.

    And Alphaform has not been able to create profits out of their revenue for a looong time.

    And they admit themselves that they will not be able to, unless they invest.

    That's the crux: IF they are going to finally create value it is probably because they are able to raise capital and do something right this time (which I doubt, because the management has proven its abilities).

    The legacy business is not worth much or next to nothing UNLESS used as a platform/hook to raise said capital. And this is exactly what they try to do in my opinion.
    Feb 14 03:51 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 179, Nov. 23: John Petersen's Axion History & Prospects; Q3 '12 Rpt; SAE Truck APU App; Rosewater & Queens Univ. Partner On Distributed Energy Study; 13th ELBC: Axion's "Operational Stability Of PbC Batteries And Battery Systems [View instapost]
    Dear Mr. Petersen,

    I am very surprised about the sheer volume of information and discussion about Axion.

    I also think that many Posters deliver not much more than hollow words instead of real arguments. Especially liked your explanation regarding missing insider buying.

    One question remains for me though:
    If Axion's story is so clearly undervalued, but the share obviously is anything BUT underfollowed, why does nobody try to take over the company?

    Do they want to do it off-exchange?

    Best
    R-BgO
    Nov 23 12:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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