What If Recovery Is Actually Bearish? [View article]
If the broader US economy recovers, long rates (which are not set by the Fed) will begin inching higher by themselves, and if the US shale boom has legs, there is even less reason to expect an already highly unlikely $USD collapse...
What If Recovery Is Actually Bearish? [View article]
The best option, in our view, is cultivating the ability to go short as well as long... the bear side of the market gets a bad rap, mainly because most investors do not understand that shorting is a selective tool that can go on the shelf for extended periods of time, but becomes incredibly useful at other times.
Are you kidding? Russia is a demographic timebomb and a quasi-mafia economy whose lifeblood is energy exports. As it stands Russia is desperate to import human physical labor, and if they do not figure out how to turn around the birth/death rate (and the rampant alcoholism rate) the result will be catastrophe -- what's more if Russia lost its oil and gas revenues the country would implode in short order.
There is no economically advanced country on earth that would avoid devastating economic depression were it cut off from vigorous global trade -- this is because of the economic well being that global trade adds in the first place. To not see a big difference on losing trade you have to start somewhere near the bottom in terms of present economic state, like Myanmar or Liberia.
Re, US too big not to fail, this statement misses the point entirely... and also completely misses the asset side of the United States balance sheet. What other country possesses 1) trillions of dollars worth of valuable intellectual property, 2) trillions of dollars worth of valuable natural resources (US is a coal and natural gas superpower, 3) trillions of dollars worth of agricultural output, 4) the most extensive global trade relationships in the world, AND 5) a functioning democracy and property rights based legal system that allows the government to efficiently and effectively draw on the resources of 1 through 4? (Oh yeah not to mention trillions of dollars in highly desirable real estate... when wealthy Brazilians and Argentinians and Russians want to buy real estate outside their inflationary local jurisdictions as a form of capital preservation, where do they go?)
We are not pollyannas in respect to America's future... we just encourage people to step back for a second and think things through...
And that's just the way we prefer it, when it comes to people who do things like end their sentences in multiple exclamation points!!! A sign that if we shamelessly pandered to your ham-fisted instincts, we would likely be doing something wrong!!!
"The Roman empire lasted 400 years, the United States empire could too!"
We have no desire to make that argument, except tongue in cheek to present a point, but do you see how empty hand waving comparisons to history can be, when one does not even possess the most salient points in regard to the history being referenced?
Ask yourself this, how long did the British Empire last? How long did the Roman Empire last? In both instances the correct answer is hundreds of years. So even if one were to hypothesize that the US empire is no different than the Roman or British ones, what does that say about timeline? Nothing, really... in fact if the US empire were given similar longevity, US dominance could easily run another half century...
But making predictions of continued US dominance isn't the point either, because we don't know what the world will look like circa 2025. The idea was to engage in a little critical thinking and consider the meaningful drivers of the global economy, and considerations of credit quality etc, that exist here and now, instead of engaging in empty hand waving about a future so far off it isn't even a dust mote yet.
The Euro, William Jennings Bryan And Newly Constructive Thoughts On Metals [View article]
No. There are so many divergences, considerations, and subtle path choices between the reality of trading (and the various strategic approaches available, on both risk management side and trade structure side) versus the simplistic nature of what you just said, we may as well be on different planets.
The Euro, William Jennings Bryan And Newly Constructive Thoughts On Metals [View article]
Jay Gould's biography was a great read (I forget the bio author)... agree a JPM silver unwind could be spectacular, only problem being the exact same arguments were being made 14 years ago. My first year in the business (1998) I had clients talking about the JPM related silver blow-up / melt-up.
The Euro, William Jennings Bryan And Newly Constructive Thoughts On Metals [View article]
Our working motto is "superior profits through risk control." If gold is going to the moon, who gives rip about twelve percent.
Don't strain your arm patting yourself on the back for sticking with a rigid view even when the drivers were less clear... in the meantime we'll stay nimble and keep putting the risk first.
Is China The Biggest Malinvestment Case Of All Time? [View article]
Actually, what you are saying here is a variant of "yeah but what if the stimulus works / what if Keynesian policies work" - which isn't really a response, as one could also say "yeah but what if Gann / Fibonacci / Elliott wave works" -- and doesn't really address the central argument of malinvestment or the accumulated empirical evidence...
Is China The Biggest Malinvestment Case Of All Time? [View article]
The Federal Reserve is a tough act to beat, I'll grant you that, but consider that the real productivity and real wealth America creates still dwarfs the Fed... the USA's riches are measured in its productive capacity, physical resources and intellectual property resources, which are vast in comparison to the shuffled paper that the Fed pushes around... in context of the latest Fed move, $40 billion per month is a lot but also very small in the context of a $15 trillion US economy. Part of the reason America can indulge the political hackery of idiots in Washington and at the head of the Federal Reserve is because the country itself is in a much stronger net asset position (both tangible and intangible) than many realize.
Is China The Biggest Malinvestment Case Of All Time? [View article]
If history rhymes with the past, re, the dragon walking in the footsteps of 20th century America on its path to dominance, then China is also well due for some variant of the panic of 1907, the 1929 crash, or the Great Depression...
Is China The Biggest Malinvestment Case Of All Time? [View article]
These are platitudes unconnected to anything substantial. One does not need cultural immersion to understand that certain economic laws bear resemblance to the laws of physics - to the extent they are violated, bad things happen.
As for short vs long-term thinking, engaging in hasty stimulus that encourages gross malinvestment is the epitome of short-term thinking (fix a problem now by creating a bigger problem later)... also, re, trading frequency, we are not High Freqency traders, nor are we day traders, and even if we were, we are also patient and dedicated entrepeneurs who have been building our market research and capital management business brick by brick for the past two years, via blood, sweat and tears, with the intention to keep building for twenty to forty years more. So yes, we know patience.
What If Recovery Is Actually Bearish? [View article]
What If Recovery Is Actually Bearish? [View article]
What If Recovery Is Actually Bearish? [View article]
Hey Bill Gross, Why So Serious? [View article]
There is no economically advanced country on earth that would avoid devastating economic depression were it cut off from vigorous global trade -- this is because of the economic well being that global trade adds in the first place. To not see a big difference on losing trade you have to start somewhere near the bottom in terms of present economic state, like Myanmar or Liberia.
Re, US too big not to fail, this statement misses the point entirely... and also completely misses the asset side of the United States balance sheet. What other country possesses 1) trillions of dollars worth of valuable intellectual property, 2) trillions of dollars worth of valuable natural resources (US is a coal and natural gas superpower, 3) trillions of dollars worth of agricultural output, 4) the most extensive global trade relationships in the world, AND 5) a functioning democracy and property rights based legal system that allows the government to efficiently and effectively draw on the resources of 1 through 4? (Oh yeah not to mention trillions of dollars in highly desirable real estate... when wealthy Brazilians and Argentinians and Russians want to buy real estate outside their inflationary local jurisdictions as a form of capital preservation, where do they go?)
We are not pollyannas in respect to America's future... we just encourage people to step back for a second and think things through...
Hey Bill Gross, Why So Serious? [View article]
Hey Bill Gross, Why So Serious? [View article]
We have no desire to make that argument, except tongue in cheek to present a point, but do you see how empty hand waving comparisons to history can be, when one does not even possess the most salient points in regard to the history being referenced?
Hey Bill Gross, Why So Serious? [View article]
Ask yourself this, how long did the British Empire last? How long did the Roman Empire last? In both instances the correct answer is hundreds of years. So even if one were to hypothesize that the US empire is no different than the Roman or British ones, what does that say about timeline? Nothing, really... in fact if the US empire were given similar longevity, US dominance could easily run another half century...
But making predictions of continued US dominance isn't the point either, because we don't know what the world will look like circa 2025. The idea was to engage in a little critical thinking and consider the meaningful drivers of the global economy, and considerations of credit quality etc, that exist here and now, instead of engaging in empty hand waving about a future so far off it isn't even a dust mote yet.
The Euro, William Jennings Bryan And Newly Constructive Thoughts On Metals [View article]
The Euro, William Jennings Bryan And Newly Constructive Thoughts On Metals [View article]
The Euro, William Jennings Bryan And Newly Constructive Thoughts On Metals [View article]
Don't strain your arm patting yourself on the back for sticking with a rigid view even when the drivers were less clear... in the meantime we'll stay nimble and keep putting the risk first.
Is China The Biggest Malinvestment Case Of All Time? [View article]
Is China The Biggest Malinvestment Case Of All Time? [View article]
Is China The Biggest Malinvestment Case Of All Time? [View article]
Is China The Biggest Malinvestment Case Of All Time? [View article]
Is China The Biggest Malinvestment Case Of All Time? [View article]
As for short vs long-term thinking, engaging in hasty stimulus that encourages gross malinvestment is the epitome of short-term thinking (fix a problem now by creating a bigger problem later)... also, re, trading frequency, we are not High Freqency traders, nor are we day traders, and even if we were, we are also patient and dedicated entrepeneurs who have been building our market research and capital management business brick by brick for the past two years, via blood, sweat and tears, with the intention to keep building for twenty to forty years more. So yes, we know patience.