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Mercenary Trader  

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  • Violent Drop Plus Powerful Rebound Suggests Potential Bounce Congestion Aftermath That Could Last Weeks [View article]
    This is a Donald Trump style worldview. Everything is simple with a simple solution or a simple explanation. Immigration a problem, just build a giant wall and keep everybody out. China a problem, just yell at them or shake a big stick or what have you. False simplicity is the cognitive equivalent of taking the arms and legs of a complex situation and cutting them off with a chainsaw. The truncated torso of understanding, jammed through the narrow window of a simplistic worldview or market view, is not actually worth anything. It is not possible for a plunge protection team to work indefinitely without reaching the point where valuations and market signals are so distorted that the free market economy itself starts to malfunction to the point of breakdown. That is in fact largely where China has gotten to and the reason for the August turmoil. As Denzel's character said in Training Day this is chess not checkers. If an answer or explanation feels comfortable coming out of the mouth of a drunk guy at the bar it is probably a little too non-nuanced to provide actual useful understanding.
    Sep 3, 2015. 09:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Violent Drop Plus Powerful Rebound Suggests Potential Bounce Congestion Aftermath That Could Last Weeks [View article]
    Not even sure what this is supposed to mean... or who exactly we owed an explanation to...
    Sep 1, 2015. 04:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Violent Drop Plus Powerful Rebound Suggests Potential Bounce Congestion Aftermath That Could Last Weeks [View article]
    Thanks! Yep it all comes down to standard aspects of human psychology, common issues with mental models and so on... usually we just let it roll off, every once in a while seems worth mentioning but mostly a non-issue, "comes with the territory" etcetera.
    Sep 1, 2015. 04:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Violent Drop Plus Powerful Rebound Suggests Potential Bounce Congestion Aftermath That Could Last Weeks [View article]
    Regurgitating government reports? Umm, we never do that... and there are plenty of people who do (simply repeating ISM numbers and GDP prints and quarterly earnings data etc)... we share proactive trading ideas on a regular basis, but generally keep that within the community.
    Sep 1, 2015. 04:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bears Are Confident U.S. Equities Will Now Downtrend -- But Are They Hogs Waiting To Get Slaughtered? [View article]
    You were truly excellent in Apocalypse Now...
    Sep 1, 2015. 07:22 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bears Are Confident U.S. Equities Will Now Downtrend -- But Are They Hogs Waiting To Get Slaughtered? [View article]
    That whole section should be understood in devil's advocate context. If the ultimate fallout from China and EM drags down markets by, say, mid-2016, that is a different proposition than asserting the impact will now create immediate follow-through.
    Sep 1, 2015. 04:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bears Are Confident U.S. Equities Will Now Downtrend -- But Are They Hogs Waiting To Get Slaughtered? [View article]
    Needlessly bitter (your own karmic reward perhaps) and with no apparent clue what "our thesis" actually is. Perhaps the fact that traders need to be flexible in the near term even as structural factors play out longer term makes you angry? By all means stay as far away from our services as possible, if you were ever even "seriously contemplating" them in the first place (likely a bald-faced lie wielded for effect, given your natural animosity towards any semblance of flexibility, a trait we see often in narrow-minded one-dimensional market participants, rigid as plastic cutlery before it snaps under pressure). We welcome you to the other side of our trades and, given your acid tone, would happily meet you face to face at some point to see if you would have the guts to speak in the same uncivil manner. (Answer already known though: You almost certainly wouldn't.)
    Sep 1, 2015. 04:18 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China, Not The U.S., Is Now Confirming The Austrian Thesis [View article]
    Your frustration would be so much better served were your target an actual devotee of Austrian economics. But we are not. We simply have appreciation for some of the models that the Austrian mode of thinking deploys. We also have appreciation for certain Keynesian models, and in fact many years ago described our operating thought process as "Keynesian with Austrian tails" ... and no doubt believe things that a "pure" Austrian would undoubtedly consider heresy (while also seeing flaws in "pure" Keynesianism that one could drive a mack truck through). As for the rest -- yawn. You don't like our view of general academia. Build a bridge and get over it.
    Aug 26, 2015. 08:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China, Not The U.S., Is Now Confirming The Austrian Thesis [View article]
    Great to hear! Thanks!
    Aug 26, 2015. 07:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Next Global Financial Crisis: Chinese Meltdown, U.S. Dollar Strength And The 'Original Sin' Pose Significant Risks To Emerging Markets [View article]
    I don't think anyone can say with any certainty where a bottom might or might not be based on historical price relationships, we have never before seen the type of monetary policy distortion that just ran for six years, nor have we ever seen a capital misallocation mega-ponzi the size and scope of China's building up the equivalent of 10-20 years' worth of corruption, dead wood and underbrush.
    Aug 22, 2015. 05:15 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Next Global Financial Crisis: Chinese Meltdown, U.S. Dollar Strength And The 'Original Sin' Pose Significant Risks To Emerging Markets [View article]
    No most of it is not discounted, and this is part of the broader point. If everything were already "priced in" and a return to higher EM was just around the corner then we would be dealing with just another correction / downturn, not the onset of a new crisis.
    Aug 22, 2015. 05:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Next Global Financial Crisis: Chinese Meltdown, U.S. Dollar Strength And The 'Original Sin' Pose Significant Risks To Emerging Markets [View article]
    Yes, if your strategy is to ignore all major market dislocations, grit your teeth and hold through all meltdowns and secular bear markets, and not cash out until you are 70, by all means (and good luck with that). But then one wonders why the deployer of such a strategy would even consume market-related news in the first place.
    Aug 22, 2015. 05:12 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Next Global Financial Crisis: Chinese Meltdown, U.S. Dollar Strength And The 'Original Sin' Pose Significant Risks To Emerging Markets [View article]
    "there are many people working hard to make things better"

    Yes, Beijing worked very hard to make things better by avoiding any semblance of a crash or slowdown via build-up of artificial growth policies over the course of many many years...
    Aug 22, 2015. 05:10 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Next Global Financial Crisis: Chinese Meltdown, U.S. Dollar Strength And The 'Original Sin' Pose Significant Risks To Emerging Markets [View article]
    Priced in - you really believe that? The multi-trillion USD carry trade unwind has not even kicked off in earnest yet. This is beginning, not ending. And your behavior is classic the "too early" value investing mentality that brushes off the reality of overshoot to the downside as well as the upside.
    Aug 22, 2015. 05:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Next Global Financial Crisis: Chinese Meltdown, U.S. Dollar Strength And The 'Original Sin' Pose Significant Risks To Emerging Markets [View article]
    This is "mad at big government" idealism masquerading as an attempt to understand markets. It isn't helpful to anyone trying to develop situational understanding for the purpose of making trading or investing decisions.
    Aug 22, 2015. 05:07 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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