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Mercenary Trader

 
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  • Saudi Arabia's Mental Paradigm Shift Confirms Triple-Digit Gold [View article]
    Ad Hominem.

    The point of the reference, clearly, was that both are known for "strong opinions weakly held," which means the ability to hold a view with high conviction in the moment, yet shift that view rapidly as circumstances change.

    This is, in fact, long noted as a capability possessed by great traders that is not so prevalent in the population at large. It was brought up via relevance to the conversation, as it seems odd (or at least illogical) to criticize a trader for a trait that is demonstrated to contribute to successful trading ability in the first place.
    Jan 21, 2015. 09:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Germany Is Delusional To The Point Of Insanity (And We're Getting More Shorts On) [View article]
    Relevant comment posted in another thread:

    We’re not trying to “justify a hedge position” at all. We simply share our views unfiltered. They are what they are, and sometimes they are passionate.

    All the various benefits of monetary union are not worth the cost if said union ends in ultimate tears. If someone offers you a financial structure that has all kinds of wonderful features except for one — it locks you into complete disaster in ten or twenty years’ time — then it does not matter what the benefits were in the interim.

    The reason we are passionate about the euro situation, apart from trading concerns, is because of the high cost in human misery. It was readily apparent that the euro was a terrible mistake even in the mid to late 90s. There were many articles in The Economist, among other places, laying out the clear arguments as to “Here is why monetary union without political union does not work.”

    The powers that be chose to flat-out ignore those arguments in favor of the benefits, coupled with an overlay of “we’ll figure out a way to make it work.”

    Well they haven’t figured out a way to make it work, and now they are dealing with consequences that were warned of before the union was even launched. And the cost of all this, in human misery terms, is being born out by the tens of millions of European youth with no employment and no plausible future, given how hard it is to jumpstart a career of any kind when one’s 20s are a string of unemployment and dead-end jobs. It’s a d--n travesty is what it is, a monument to human folly in which the costs are borne by those who had no say in the decision, and those costs could get even worse, which is our further point.

    Not only are things bad, they could get MUCH, MUCH WORSE, and everybody who bi---s about the harshness of our view seems to keep forgetting or glossing over that.
    Jan 21, 2015. 09:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Germany Is Delusional To The Point Of Insanity (And We're Getting More Shorts On) [View article]
    Who said the world is ending? That is a hand-waving generalization. As for "never bet on the end of the world," who said anything about that either? We are short various currencies against the US dollar, have been so for more than six months, and they contributed to tremendous returns in 2014, with 2015 off to another good start. Is this "betting on the end of the world?" No. But then we deal in reality and make trades with real money, whereas you seem content with glittering banalities.

    As for real world consequences, youth unemployment in Italy, Spain and Greece is in the FORTY TO SIXTY PERCENT range in 2014. That is not hypothetical "things could get bad" malaise. That is Great Depression level conditions, destroying tens of millions of lives. And the potential exists, here and now, for things to get much, much worse. This is not hyperbole or extrapolation. It is right there in the data.

    If you don't understand why macro-level deflation is dangerous, or why macroeconomic conditions could get much, much worse for Europe -- alarmingly so -- due to irrational monetary policies, then you aren't even in the debate because you haven't bothered to understand what the parts and pieces are or the things that are truly at stake.

    If you yet continue to hold forth, telling people to "go have another glass of wine" while speaking in such ignorance, that makes you a fool.

    And if you find our writing tiring, the last time we checked the reading of our materials was not compulsory. Feel free to never read anything we write or post ever again.
    Jan 21, 2015. 09:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Germany Is Delusional To The Point Of Insanity (And We're Getting More Shorts On) [View article]
    European monetary union was a predictably awful idea from the start. Re QE and US taxpayers, these statements are not backed up by data showing a US recovery trajectory, including not only data from government sources but stuff that can't be faked like auto and light truck sales. As for "the market heading to a new plateau for now," that sounds like an assertion without backing. Floating all boats is never prudent because it leads to disaster in the long run. The "floating all boats" strategy is more or less what the central bankers have been attempting to use for the past six years and is now, finally, beginning to come apart at the seams.
    Jan 21, 2015. 08:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Germany Is Delusional To The Point Of Insanity (And We're Getting More Shorts On) [View article]
    Since when is recreating the conditions that allowed for the rise of fascist parties and right wing splinter groups "sane?" Since when is creating a monetary policy union that creates great depression like conditions for tens of millions of european youth "sane?" Since when is Germany whistling past the graveyard in terms of its own future economic prospects (by ignoring the risks of economic downturn brought about by obvious Asia slowdown) "sane?" Since when is stupidly turning down a financing lifeline when it is badly needed and the cost is cheap to free "sane?" Since when is placing moralistic ideals over catastrophic real world consequences "sane?" Since when is creating the conditions that allow for the whole neighborhood to be burnt down, and then standing by as the fire starts "sane?" As for why the Swiss removed the peg, your explanation is too surface level to even begin...
    Jan 21, 2015. 08:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Germany Is Delusional To The Point Of Insanity (And We're Getting More Shorts On) [View article]
    The Germans were delusional in hooking up with Greece in the first place, and now they want to sidestep the consequences. The whole point is that monetary union was a stupid idea, we have said that repeatedly and were saying it in 1998. But now they are IN IT, and pretending they are not in it -- acting as if Germany can have its own policy separate from the broader eurozone when it can't -- is invitation for disaster. Yes it may be a crappy situation, but Germany CREATED that situation. Our point is entirely logistical, as we stated plainly though commenters seem to miss it. This has nothing to do with the rightness or wrongness of the lazy versus the industrious, it has to do with disastrous real world consequences of stupid decisions born of emotion. They made this bed, literally -- if Germany did not want to deal with "overpaid Greek government officials" they should not have elected to share a fiscal bed with them, as monetary union is the closest thing to a marriage you can get, but they DID decide to do that, and now they can pretend to be moral and upright and let the whole house burn down or they can be pragmatic about the situation and try to avoid disaster.
    Jan 21, 2015. 08:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Germany Is Delusional To The Point Of Insanity (And We're Getting More Shorts On) [View article]
    Your comments miss the point entirely... but we're starting to realize this is par for the course on SA. Of course Germany never should have consented to monetary union with those countries in the first place. Which we have said flat out and repeatedly. But they DID consent. They got MARRIED in fiscal terms -- getting into the same currency bed -- and now they have to lay in it or face the potentially catastrophic logistical consequences.
    Jan 21, 2015. 08:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Germany Is Delusional To The Point Of Insanity (And We're Getting More Shorts On) [View article]
    Actually it works fine...
    Jan 21, 2015. 08:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Germany Is Delusional To The Point Of Insanity (And We're Getting More Shorts On) [View article]
    No... that was kind of the whole point...
    Jan 21, 2015. 08:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Saudi Arabia's Mental Paradigm Shift Confirms Triple-Digit Gold [View article]
    Because great traders never express views with strong conviction in the moment and then change their minds. Oh wait, except for Soros and PTJ being known for it, and not idly so but as one of the strongest factors in making them great. Yes surely it was negative interest rates that fed a shift, and not one of who knows how many other factors including sheer force of will to temporarily support a view that doesn't necessarily make sense, and which may remain as ephemeral as the trend. We don't fight price, and we don't fear strong conviction because flexibility is the ultimate virtue. Which should kind of be a "duh" point. This board does not matter enough to warrant forgiveness concerns. Traders will never be understood in general because it is not ability to predict the future that makes them good traders, but ability to turn on a dime which those who are multiple steps slower (if able to move at all) cannot do. "HEY, YOU CHANGED YOUR POSITION, THAT'S NOT ALLOWED!"
    Jan 21, 2015. 02:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Saudi Arabia's Mental Paradigm Shift Confirms Triple-Digit Gold [View article]
    Closed it with minimal damage, caught the breakout in GDX, GDXJ, SIL, still long. We are traders. We win by being flexible and staying sharp. Everything we do is time stamped and broadcast in real time.
    Jan 20, 2015. 08:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yes, The Dollar Is A 'Crowded Trade' - But Not In The Manner Most Think [View article]
    Saying a retracement is "due" is a useless observation and probably counts as "negative wisdom," meaning it is an observation point that probably hurts more than it helps in most cases.

    Of course a strong trend can be prone to retracements, possibly even significant ones. This is always the case and will always be so. But focusing on that is probabilistically dangerous because of the risk of missing out on the moves when the retracement is expected but never comes because the move just keeps going and going... which is more likely to happen, by the way, in situations where the retracement is "expected," typically because the higher the expectation of a retracement due to observed superficial crowding, the higher the pervasive strength of the fundamentals pushing the trend (which are oblivious to things like COT reports).

    This is not to say that a retracement can't happen, or that such can't be prepared for. It is to point out, however, that there are all kinds of elements that functionally come off as "sucker's wisdom," as Reminiscences first pointed out nearly a century ago, in that they encourage the wrong habits, subtle weaknesses, and subtle errors of positioning and approach that contribute to the average market participant's all-too-typical results, i.e. lukewarm and money-losing.

    To trade excellently, you must have excellent understanding, which further means knowing which conventional wisdom nuggets and surface level approaches to various trading situations are actually dangerous to fall into. The alternative, again, is simply to have weak or poor results over the full cycle, which is of course is the constant and regular result experienced by the 90 percent -- maybe even the 97 percent if you include those who make a little bit of profit but not much, not a great amount -- for lack of ability to discern subtleties in a way that, upon closer inspection, makes perfect sense.
    Jan 15, 2015. 07:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Yes, The Dollar Is A 'Crowded Trade' - But Not In The Manner Most Think [View article]
    Did you even read the article?
    Jan 15, 2015. 04:30 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yes, The Dollar Is A 'Crowded Trade' - But Not In The Manner Most Think [View article]
    The euro just lost another major support peg. Look at EURUSD reaction -- down huge, likely in anticipation of inevitable euro QE. We have been short EURUSD (along with a basket of other major currencies) for many months. You don't need a crystal ball to trade well. You just need to understand macro drivers and situationally respond to odds and probabilities.
    Jan 15, 2015. 03:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yes, The Dollar Is A 'Crowded Trade' - But Not In The Manner Most Think [View article]
    We have been aggressively short the Canadian and Australian dollars in large size for many months. Long USD positions vs the commodity currencies, and others, contributed substantially to our roughly +47% return in H214. The move is not done in our view. The Canadian and Australian housing bubbles are two of the last great housing bubbles and will eventually burst, with attendant major impact on the currencies via economic outlook.
    Jan 15, 2015. 03:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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