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  • Herbalife Pushes 'All-In' On Reckless Share Buyback [View article]
    Millions of fools can't be wrong!
    Apr 29, 2014. 09:34 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blood In The Streets, It's Time To Buy Russia [View article]
    Political/moral convictions, I think investing in Russia right now borders on soft treason. Otherwise, boy, as a born bad contrarian, I'd be all in. Heh. Gazprom is a massive and massively profitable enterprise.
    Mar 29, 2014. 12:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Blood In The Streets, It's Time To Buy Russia [View article]
    I'm drooling at some of these purchases, and can't believe Gazprom is selling at two times earnings. That said, I'm not buying.

    I wouldn't buy Volkswagen in 1939, either.
    Mar 28, 2014. 08:55 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Happens If The Dollar Loses Its Status As Reserve Currency? [View article]
    Macro concerns like this one tend to change with the moon. If the dollar is dislodged as the reserve currency, it would be such a lengthy process, with so many unforeseen ramifications, that planning a portfolio around it would be futile even if you knew *when* exactly this would transpire. The commentariat of CNBC et al are adroit at stirring up these mini-panics.
    Mar 25, 2014. 08:18 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Stocks I Expect To Get Halved In The Next 2 Years [View article]
    the long haul? like when PLUG sold for $1600 in 2000, the last time it was the object of speculative frenzy, and less than a quarter around this time last year? the long haul, during which time PLUG has never come close to turning a yearly profit, not even once?

    i have a fair idea of what i'm talking about. without getting too much into my professional background, i've managed billions for one of the nation's leading fund providers. i retired at 45 on my savings and have since managed money for my friends and family at a better than 23% annual return on investment over the last thirteen years. i *made* money during the GFC. i'm a CFA and a CPA. i got a little bit of an idea of what i'm talking about, don't you worry about me. worry about your money and what's going to happen to it once the curtain is raised on this pump and dump. get out while you're showing a profit and put that money into VFINX, because otherwise you will regret it. maybe not now, maybe not six months from now, but you will, and remember this post when you do.
    Mar 20, 2014. 08:14 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Stocks I Expect To Get Halved In The Next 2 Years [View article]
    saying PLUG will be halved is generous indeed; i expect something like a penny-stock 99% breakdown for this scam. that said, i wouldn't short it. the market can stay irrational longer than i can stay liquid!
    Mar 20, 2014. 07:34 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investing: An Introduction To Creating Wealth [View article]
    You counted?
    Mar 19, 2014. 08:18 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends And 'The Magic Pants' [View article]
    Yes, you raise a very good point about taxation! If DGI is a prima facie sound strategy, it is certainly less so in a taxable brokerage account than it would be in an IRA or some other tax-free vehicle simply because, obviously, dividends are taxed as they are received while cap gains can be withheld for years or longer, in which case the long-term rates apply.

    My personal hesitation with "the cult of DGI" as exemplified by Mr. Carnevale (who is a fine writer) is that as effective strategies tend to gain in popularity, those advantages dwindle as they are adopted by greater numbers of investors. We saw this with the Dogs of the Dow, the Nifty Fifty, and other bright ideas (interestingly, the Dogs strategy has provided solid returns since it has lost its cache, and a fund holding all of the Nifty 50 bought *after* those stocks crashed, would beat the S&P). I attribute this to those latter-days buying at expanded multiples; barring inside information, it may be that the only advantage the individual investor has is not the power of dividend growth or anything like that, but the power of **purchasing at reasonable multiples** and buying only fairly priced or "cheap" stocks in relation to future cash flows.
    Mar 18, 2014. 09:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends And 'The Magic Pants' [View article]
    The information is out there, yes, but it's how the individuals which comprise the market analyse that information that distinguishes successful investors from unsuccessful investors. It's not "inside information," it's a radically different analytical frame. EMH presupposes that every individual actor will interpret all given information in the same way or similarly, and thus no one can generate consistent alpha. Which is manifestly untrue. That it's untrue is borne out by my own experience (or else I've just been lucky over and over and over, throughout my career and in my personal investing) and is gestured at by Graham's assertion that "the successful investor must differ in kind, and not in some fancied superior degree, from those around him." Ever since Hetty Green, great investors have been buying when others were selling, and vice versa.

    Theory is fine, but there's just no replacement for empirical knowledge, and experience has taught me that occasionally, the great mass of men interpret the given information wrongly.
    Mar 18, 2014. 10:29 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hope And Change Is Not A 2014 Investment Strategy [View article]
    I'm with you, Bret. I feel like, barring a marked shakeout and correction, if the bull market continues into the next few years, PLUG, Tesla, and all that neo-futuristic hoodangle will be this go-round's equivalent of the dotcom stocks. I'm preparing for a two-tier market and actively seeking out cheap stocks, which are still out there. But we are not in a bubble. Yet.

    The economy, I feel, is fundamentally improving and I don't see another recession around the corner, so as the GFC fades into the rear-view mirror we'll start to see how the next speculative frenzies emerge while a new generation (the Millenials) start to enter the market. I squarely placed the dotcom boom as the market entrance for Generation X, where they learned their lessons and cut their teeth; these things seem to go in 20-year cycles.

    There is no new thing under the sun, and especially not on Wall Street.
    Mar 18, 2014. 10:07 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rich And Retired? Why Buying Dividend Growth Stocks Might Not Be Your Best Move [View article]
    Is there a REIT for that?
    Mar 18, 2014. 09:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon sells $5.5B in first bond sale in two decades [View news story]
    Best capital allocators in the energy industry, bar none.
    Mar 18, 2014. 12:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rich And Retired? Why Buying Dividend Growth Stocks Might Not Be Your Best Move [View article]
    Mar 18, 2014. 12:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Johnson & Johnson: A Safe Bet For Conservative Investors [View article]
    I'm not smart enough to time the market, so I just buy at whatever seems like a good price to me. I like to buy secondary companies cheap, but don't really mind buying superior companies at fair value. If you ever see JNJ objectively *cheap*, something is likely wrong with the greater market, as this stock is just about as close to safe and sure money as there is in a common stock.
    Mar 12, 2014. 07:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil: The Dividend Growth Picture Looks Unusually Bright [View article]
    RDS,Tim, might be a good value look right now. I think they're beaten down by lawsuits and the commodities supercycle and cheap gas, but I remember one thing "Iron Ass" Raymond mentioning in "Private Empire" was that the only competitor he really feared much was Shell. Gotta figure the vintage of this comment was like 2001, but: I prefer to only invest in one company in an industry that I identify as the alpha competitor. In energy, we know who that is.

    I want a vicious competitive edge. I don't care about the short term product cycles or anything, I want crushing heavyweight advantage on my side. Until recently, globally, it was RDS, XOM, and Chev. RDS was strong, but now it may be on the verge of breakup, and it has a much less stable partner in the EU than XOM does in the US.

    Looking forward into the next 20 years -- which is what matters -- we really are splitting it between XOM and Chevron. Who do you pick?
    Mar 11, 2014. 10:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment