Seeking Alpha

Mercury Value  

View Mercury Value's Comments BY TICKER:
  • Will Apple Emulate Gold's Plunge? [View article]
    Short answer: no.
    Long answer: nope.

    Apple is an incorporated entity comprised of numerous intelligent minds which are able to influence the destiny of their institution and can interact with market forces, more or less, on its own terms. Gold is a hunk of shiny metal. I fail to see where any comparison obtains.
    Feb 11, 2014. 08:46 AM | 32 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 Will Be The Tipping Point For Apple [View article]
    You neglected to mention an important detail of Google Play: namely, that it sucks.
    Feb 9, 2014. 07:28 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple's Recent 'Analyst Downgrade' Is A Farce [View article]
    I'm not interested in talking about Apple. There are plenty of Apple articles out there. Let's bash the analyst community instead, because they deserve it.

    Analysts are absolutely no good to me except to drive prices down before I want to buy something. The only difference between most professional analysts and your barber is that the former have passed the Level III's and the latter has not. There's nothing you can learn in b-school that you can't through plain old fashioned common sense, sound logic, and reasoning. In fact, with all the Fama-French style claptrap and utterly useless "technical" aeromancy you pick up at most b-schools (Columbia's a notable exception, there are a few others) I feel like it's a positive disadvantage to one who wishes to practice sound principles. If this sounds like anti-intellectualism, it's not; it's anti-bunkum, and the vast majority of professional analysts peddle nothing but bunkum. Heck, Walter Schloss almost doubled the S&P averages for more than 40 years, and the guy didn't even attend college. Just because someone's paychecks say Cantor Fitz on them doesn't make their opinion any more valid than your own.

    I say this, and I put CFA after my name on my calling cards. Take that as you will.
    Jan 6, 2014. 07:33 AM | 24 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Responsiveness Report - Bad News For Apple? [View article]
    ? The iPhone 4, which right now you can get for (comparatively) a bag of bottle deposit returns, is still faster than anything else outside of the iOS.
    Sep 23, 2013. 08:03 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 1st Stage Of Apple's Comeback Is Complete: A Review Of Catalysts Necessary For Stage 2 To Succeed [View article]
    He's either A) trolling, or B) he's lost a lot of money and is looking to recoup on his investment. Tough couple of years for the BB investor, but I might be interested now that they're essentially selling at cash.

    Which is all well and good, but what are "slales"?
    Sep 2, 2013. 10:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carl Icahn Spells The End Of An Era At Apple [View article]
    Good take all in all, but...

    It might border on hyperbole to say that "the Apple we knew and loved is gone" simply because old Gordon Gekko bought a hunk of the company. It feels to me like Icahn will be a rather quiet shareholder, if only because I don't see him speaking with any authority or knowledge of the company to the programmers and engineers. I think he'll have an amicable relationship with Tim Cook, and that's about it. Apple, it is safe to say, is not a hostile takeover target (unless Mr. Icahn decided to leverage himself considerably).

    I've been predicting for a while that *Buffett*, or one of his emissars, would step in with 500 mil. But it hasn't happened. He bought into IBM, my thinking goes, so why not Apple? It was sheer market insanity when it was selling at $385 a couple of months ago, and about a third of your investment was immediately returned to you in raw cash...
    Aug 13, 2013. 08:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Inc.'s Oppenheimer Engineers A Q3 Beat [View article]
    "It may be unnerving to those investors who thrilled in the sports car ride of the past."

    but without them, we wouldn't be here after the sports car wrapped itself around a pole, and we wouldn't have the chance to buy one of the world's most profitable companies for less than six times earnings after free cash is discounted. it's been a wild ride!
    Jul 23, 2013. 09:12 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Shares Are In The Reign Of Uncertainty [View article]
    @badsangria

    Yes they are. Buying and holding a share of a leading, conservatively financed common stock is investing; taking that same stock and hanging onto it for a week because you think it will pop is trading. There is no buy and hold trading, it's a contradiction in terms. Investing is synonymous with buying and holding. Speculation is synonymous with trading.

    (I suppose that buying and holding a bad company, such as a penny stock, is as much speculation as is trading it.)

    Not saying one is inherently better than the other, I trade foreign currencies all the time and often if I'm scalping I may not hold EUR/USD for more than an hour. If I'm doing a carry trade based on interest rate disparities, I am buying and holding the position in the expectation that, over time, the difference between the two rates will result in a greater profit than if I was merely scalping.

    I was taught and it's always been my conviction that there is a fundamental difference between investment and speculation, and keeping this in mind has always proven very valuable. The distinction goes back to Benjamin Graham, and he leaves precious little to argue against in his work.
    Jun 24, 2013. 01:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Shares Are In The Reign Of Uncertainty [View article]
    Thank you. "Rumours" is a great Fleetwood Mac record, a terrible thing to base your investment theses on :)
    Jun 23, 2013. 06:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Shares Are In The Reign Of Uncertainty [View article]
    Upon what do you base this prognostication, O Great Kreskin?
    Jun 23, 2013. 04:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Shares Are In The Reign Of Uncertainty [View article]
    Why in the world would they split the stock just after announcing a $50 billion buyback?
    Jun 23, 2013. 11:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Shares Are In The Reign Of Uncertainty [View article]
    Fresh thinking and optimism for a change. Thanks for this article.

    Anyone who is short Apple doesn't understand the words "discounted cash flow analysis." Apple is selling at about 60% of fair value. Apple was fairly or even somewhat undervalued at $700. All the negative hype in the world won't be of any use once the buyback starts to take effect and the product cycle refreshes.

    "The market in the short term is a voting machine, in the long term, a weighing machine."

    I've purchased on this recent drawdown not due to any act of religious devotion or faith, but because this is an excellent, innovative company with no debt and a Fort Knox balance sheet.

    See you during the Christmas sales season. Until then, everything we're saying here is mere idle speculation.
    Jun 23, 2013. 10:16 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Applephoria Is Translating Into Lost Opportunities For Investors [View article]
    I only just dipped my feet in a few months ago after the share price plummeted, and now I'm thanking myself for having stayed away this long -- EVERYONE has an opinion about Apple!

    Agreed that its best growth is likely behind it. But that didn't factor into my investment decision, the meteoric growth that everyone was chasing a couple of years ago. The fortress balance sheet - it is a veritable Gibraltar - and the low historical price-to-earnings ratio - on the understanding that earnings could decline. Looked at from this perspective, the lost market share doesn't bother me as much and, in fact, would only provide me an opportunity to at least think about buying more if the share price were to drop further.

    It's true that MSFT, once upon a time a growth monster in its own right, has been range-bound for years. But I sense that if one had bought cheap shares in, say, 2002, and merely collected the dividend in the interim, he could be satisfied holding it. Of course, for the right price, almost any stock can be attractive.

    Right now, Apple is priced for *no* growth, and a substantial decline in earnings that hasn't really panned out yet. The margins are declining, but they were high margins to begin with. I sense that the story isn't over yet, and at any rate the company is quite good at creating new revenue streams.

    I suppose we won't really have much conclusive to say until the product cycle refreshes in the fall.
    Jun 19, 2013. 07:53 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Magic Is Broken [View article]
    It should be noted that the GS4 just launched around this time last month, while the i5 is growing a little long in the tooth. You seem to only be comparing *present* sales without considering the product cycles.

    It's probably better to hold off sales comparisons until the i5s comes out and to see how that does. Samsung, as the above poster notes, does not post hard sales numbers, which muddies the waters considerably. Plus, shipments to retailers != sales. The i5 sold 5 million in its first 5 days. The GS4 might not hit that in its first month.
    May 19, 2013. 03:04 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Magic Is Broken [View article]
    I believe the S4 is a bit cheaper, no? But the point's taken. I think people tend to overshoot their criticism here. Simply because there's competition doesn't put Apple in a terminal state of decline. There's no iPhone killer yet -- which was the purpose of the Galaxy.

    It should be noted that beyond all this, cellphones have evolved drastically in just the last five years. So we can't know what tomorrow will bring.

    I tend to see it as a matter of company cultures. Samsung and Apple have different objectives. Switching industries, take a company like Toyota, which is all things to (most) consumer niches. A new Corolla will be a very good car for a long time. But it's never going to turn heads. "Ooooh, is that a Toyota?" You'll never hear it. A Maserati, on the other hand...

    So brand recognition and the moat, which you are quick to perceive, is the primary factor here. It may be a bit much to say the Apple magic is "broken," and we do have to recognize that the company is coming off of what may be two of the most remarkable years in American corporate history. I sense this is a cooling-off period more than anything. Maybe "dormant" is a better word. But history is littered with once-dominant companies that lost their edge due to complacency. Atari, anyone?
    May 19, 2013. 02:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
More on AAPL by Mercury Value
COMMENTS STATS
565 Comments
1,185 Likes