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  • Bears confounded as U.S. Steel keeps rising [View news story]
    You can see all of our metal price commentary at
    Sep 4, 2014. 08:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bears confounded as U.S. Steel keeps rising [View news story]
    For what it's worth, we don't see any significant HRC downside potential and certainly not 10-15%. On the contrary, Q4 has typically shown a run-up in HRC prices through January/early Feb.
    Sep 3, 2014. 12:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Allegheny Technologies And AK Steel To Kill The GOES Goose? [View article]
    Pompano Frog - Are you going to try and convince us that this GOES anti-dumping case is just like a steel plate or steel rebar import dumping case? The 7 countries all accused all subsidize their GOES? I doubt it.

    CatchingKnives - the big transformer producers already have lines in operation in Canada and Mexico. I'm not saying they are going to do this, just that they pretty readily could do it. If their cost structures increase by too much, they certainly have to consider it.

    Nov 10, 2013. 09:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Aluminum Producers Profit From The LME Warehousing Scheme [View article]
    The load out time is so long because more metal is coming into the warehouses than what was being sent out, hence the bottleneck. However, Goldman announced some changes yesterday which we will cover on MetalMiner that may alleviate the problem. So the example I gave in the article, If canceled warrants (think of that as your pick-up ticket) total 5000 tons for a particular day, the warehouse loads out only 1500 tons, you get a bottleneck. This article explains it further:

    Aug 1, 2013. 08:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Great Depression By 2018 With 1970s-Style Inflation? [View article]
    Part two covering the Great Depression forecast will appear on MetalMiner early next week (it's a 2-part series)
    Dec 7, 2012. 08:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Great Depression By 2018 With 1970s-Style Inflation? [View article]
    Wish list? Hardly. Hit the link and subscribe to ITR - you can get the supporting data there. LAR
    Dec 6, 2012. 08:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Steel Prices Will Hit Bottom [View article]
    yes, steel makers use MET coal but thermal coal is used in power generation so it's a big input cost in steelmaking for some producers...
    May 25, 2012. 09:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Falling Iron Ore, Coal Prices: The Start Of A Steel Market Collapse? [View article]
    maverta, there is a part two which addresses your questions including coking coal. We now do a monthly Raw Steels MMI(R) report which is updated weekly. You can see the latest here:

    Beginning June 1, we will be publishing 10 indexes that contain underlying metals trends by industry, type etc. The Raw Steels MMI(R) contains all of these raw materials...
    May 25, 2012. 08:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp's Heavy Rare Earths Reveal Is Conveniently Timed [View article]
    Mike, that was a great post!
    Oct 7, 2011. 08:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Love for ALUM in Bullish Metals Market [View article]
    True, there are no aluminum backed ETFs on the US exchanges. We are writing of the European aluminum ETF.
    Aug 4, 2011. 08:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Now the Right Time for Steel? [View article]
    Excellent analysis and we would concur with all points. In addition, re-stocking and real demand will also likely propel prices up. The steel sector as a whole is in its trough, signaling a great time to buy, see our post here:

    Iron ore has had its day and we expect prices to decline over the coming years, though coking coal and scrap prices are expected to rise.
    Nov 25, 2010. 10:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Steel Is the Most Solid? [View article]
    I think you are calling this sector correctly (and Cramer was wrong and Nucor was right...the market is unlikely to shoot up). Despite the number of price increases announced by the major mills, we still don't believe this new wave of price increases will stick. Demand remains poor (Nucor doesn't sell into the automotive sector) and until construction turns up in the West, demand will play out via re-stocking cycles.

    On the flip some of the key raw material inputs....scrap, iron ore and coking coal are all headed up which will give producers some price support but nothing will "shoot way up" until demand returns....
    Dec 14, 2009. 02:56 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Economic Recovery? Commodity Charts Don't Think So [View article]
    Great job with this piece! We have been harping on similar themes for quite some time on MetalMiner. The industrial buying community is outraged by the apparent increases in commodity prices without a corresponding increase in global demand. But, it is what it is. I also agree with the commentator who said people were investing in commodities as a hedge against inflation. It makes sense but as you rightly point out, when will the bubble burst? We are coming out with our price predictions in January.

    In the meantime, here is a different take we have been talking about on how to use the "speculative aspects" of these markets to hedge prices (for industrial buyers)
    Dec 1, 2009. 09:30 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Would Sell Platinum and Buy Palladium [View article]
    Good analysis! It will be interesting to see the effects of this new EFT (if it gets approved) and how quickly the price of palladium increases. Substitution in the automotive industry is a very long arduous process so the long term picture weighs heavier than the short term...
    Jun 12, 2009. 05:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Response to Jack Lifton's 'Lithium Batteries: Nothing But Illusion' [View article]
    I find this subject fascinating and have included below a link to a cursory analysis of the lithium supply market we did on our blog site which also received the following comment from Keith Evans, referred to earlier in the comments above:
    "At a major lithium conference held in Santiago,
    Chile, in January, an update of a National Research Council report prepared in the 1970’s accounting for major later discoveries, estimated global lithium resouces and reserves at approx. 30 million tonnes (equivalent to approx. 160 million tonnes of lithium carbonate, the principal feedstock for the lithium chemicals used in lithium-ion batteries).
    The same estimates were quoted by two of the major current producers but SQM the third major producer estimated a higher total of 190 million tonnes (35.7 million tonnes Li). Chemetall pointed out that reserves at current and proposed operations totalled 74 million tonnes of carbonate. All three stated that Li-ion vehicle batteries required 0.6 kg carbonate per kW/h thus ranging from 1.2 kg in a mild HEV through 7.2 kg in a PHEV and 15 kg in an EV.
    (Estimating a battery price of 500 Euros/kWh and a carbonate price of 6 Euro/kg Chemetall stated that the carbonate cost in a battery represented less than 1% of the total). Looking at battery demand in another way, each million tonnes of recovered Li will be sufficient for 550 million Chevrolet Volts.
    Lithium reserves and resources are widely distributed geographically and geologically and recent journalistic hype to the effect that the development of the Salar de Uyuni is a prerequisite for the large scale electrification of vehicles is baseless. This particular salar contains only an eigth of the world resources.
    The large resources claimed for the Clayton Valley area are not in the estimates above.
    One final comment concerns the current supply/demand situation. Quoting again from the Santiago conference, chemical demand estimates ranged between 93,000 and 95,000 of lithium carbonate equivalents and productioncapacity approximates to 115,000 tonnes. Existing operations are capable of major expansion and a number of new projects are at various stages of evaluation."
    Apr 23, 2009. 10:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment