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  • Allegheny Technologies And AK Steel To Kill The GOES Goose? [View article]
    Pompano Frog - Are you going to try and convince us that this GOES anti-dumping case is just like a steel plate or steel rebar import dumping case? The 7 countries all accused all subsidize their GOES? I doubt it.

    CatchingKnives - the big transformer producers already have lines in operation in Canada and Mexico. I'm not saying they are going to do this, just that they pretty readily could do it. If their cost structures increase by too much, they certainly have to consider it.

    LAR
    Nov 10 09:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Aluminum Producers Profit From The LME Warehousing Scheme [View article]
    The load out time is so long because more metal is coming into the warehouses than what was being sent out, hence the bottleneck. However, Goldman announced some changes yesterday which we will cover on MetalMiner that may alleviate the problem. So the example I gave in the article, If canceled warrants (think of that as your pick-up ticket) total 5000 tons for a particular day, the warehouse loads out only 1500 tons, you get a bottleneck. This article explains it further: http://bit.ly/14kMAnH

    --LAR
    Aug 1 08:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Great Depression By 2018 With 1970s-Style Inflation? [View article]
    Part two covering the Great Depression forecast will appear on MetalMiner early next week (it's a 2-part series)
    Dec 7 08:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Great Depression By 2018 With 1970s-Style Inflation? [View article]
    Wish list? Hardly. Hit the link and subscribe to ITR - you can get the supporting data there. LAR
    Dec 6 08:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Steel Prices Will Hit Bottom [View article]
    yes, steel makers use MET coal but thermal coal is used in power generation so it's a big input cost in steelmaking for some producers...
    May 25 09:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Falling Iron Ore, Coal Prices: The Start Of A Steel Market Collapse? [View article]
    maverta, there is a part two which addresses your questions including coking coal. We now do a monthly Raw Steels MMI(R) report which is updated weekly. You can see the latest here: http://bit.ly/LmUkWB

    Beginning June 1, we will be publishing 10 indexes that contain underlying metals trends by industry, type etc. The Raw Steels MMI(R) contains all of these raw materials...
    May 25 08:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp's Heavy Rare Earths Reveal Is Conveniently Timed [View article]
    Mike, that was a great post!
    Oct 7 08:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Love for ALUM in Bullish Metals Market [View article]
    True, there are no aluminum backed ETFs on the US exchanges. We are writing of the European aluminum ETF.
    Aug 4 08:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Now the Right Time for Steel? [View article]
    Excellent analysis and we would concur with all points. In addition, re-stocking and real demand will also likely propel prices up. The steel sector as a whole is in its trough, signaling a great time to buy, see our post here:

    agmetalminer.com/2010/.../.

    Iron ore has had its day and we expect prices to decline over the coming years, though coking coal and scrap prices are expected to rise.
    Nov 25 10:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Steel Is the Most Solid? [View article]
    I think you are calling this sector correctly (and Cramer was wrong and Nucor was right...the market is unlikely to shoot up). Despite the number of price increases announced by the major mills, we still don't believe this new wave of price increases will stick. Demand remains poor (Nucor doesn't sell into the automotive sector) and until construction turns up in the West, demand will play out via re-stocking cycles.

    On the flip side....watch some of the key raw material inputs....scrap, iron ore and coking coal are all headed up which will give producers some price support but nothing will "shoot way up" until demand returns....
    Dec 14 02:56 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Economic Recovery? Commodity Charts Don't Think So [View article]
    Great job with this piece! We have been harping on similar themes for quite some time on MetalMiner. The industrial buying community is outraged by the apparent increases in commodity prices without a corresponding increase in global demand. But, it is what it is. I also agree with the commentator who said people were investing in commodities as a hedge against inflation. It makes sense but as you rightly point out, when will the bubble burst? We are coming out with our price predictions in January.

    In the meantime, here is a different take we have been talking about on how to use the "speculative aspects" of these markets to hedge prices (for industrial buyers) agmetalminer.com/2009/.../
    Dec 1 09:30 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Would Sell Platinum and Buy Palladium [View article]
    Good analysis! It will be interesting to see the effects of this new EFT (if it gets approved) seekingalpha.com/artic... and how quickly the price of palladium increases. Substitution in the automotive industry is a very long arduous process so the long term picture weighs heavier than the short term...
    Jun 12 05:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Response to Jack Lifton's 'Lithium Batteries: Nothing But Illusion' [View article]
    I find this subject fascinating and have included below a link to a cursory analysis of the lithium supply market we did on our blog site
    agmetalminer.com/2009/.../ which also received the following comment from Keith Evans, referred to earlier in the comments above:
    "At a major lithium conference held in Santiago,
    Chile, in January, an update of a National Research Council report prepared in the 1970’s accounting for major later discoveries, estimated global lithium resouces and reserves at approx. 30 million tonnes (equivalent to approx. 160 million tonnes of lithium carbonate, the principal feedstock for the lithium chemicals used in lithium-ion batteries).
    The same estimates were quoted by two of the major current producers but SQM the third major producer estimated a higher total of 190 million tonnes (35.7 million tonnes Li). Chemetall pointed out that reserves at current and proposed operations totalled 74 million tonnes of carbonate. All three stated that Li-ion vehicle batteries required 0.6 kg carbonate per kW/h thus ranging from 1.2 kg in a mild HEV through 7.2 kg in a PHEV and 15 kg in an EV.
    (Estimating a battery price of 500 Euros/kWh and a carbonate price of 6 Euro/kg Chemetall stated that the carbonate cost in a battery represented less than 1% of the total). Looking at battery demand in another way, each million tonnes of recovered Li will be sufficient for 550 million Chevrolet Volts.
    Lithium reserves and resources are widely distributed geographically and geologically and recent journalistic hype to the effect that the development of the Salar de Uyuni is a prerequisite for the large scale electrification of vehicles is baseless. This particular salar contains only an eigth of the world resources.
    The large resources claimed for the Clayton Valley area are not in the estimates above.
    One final comment concerns the current supply/demand situation. Quoting again from the Santiago conference, chemical demand estimates ranged between 93,000 and 95,000 of lithium carbonate equivalents and productioncapacity approximates to 115,000 tonnes. Existing operations are capable of major expansion and a number of new projects are at various stages of evaluation."
    Apr 23 10:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nucor Forges a Different Path [View article]
    Very interesting analysis. If my understanding serves me, Nucor is mostly non-unionized whereas Caterpillar is still somewhat unionized (I can't find the numbers to support this claim) Not to take anything away from Nucor, they are the Southwest of the steel industry, but they likely have a lot more flexibility in labor relations than Cat does...
    Apr 16 06:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Department of Energy Technology Metals Subsidy Program Is Short-Sighted [View article]
    I agree with the ends but not the means. We're going to post a story on this as well on MetalMiner (agmetalminer.com) but doing a quick search of countries of production for the 3 major metals you discuss, Indium, Gallium and Selenium, I found that China has no more than a 30% market share for Gallium, is a primary producer of Indium (though Japan, Canada and Belgium are also big producers) and Selenium is not even produced by China (it's biggest refiner is Japan). I can give you countless examples of products needed and purchased by US companies whose raw materials must be imported. It's common. I can't argue you on the short-sightedness factor though. I don't have any doubt that many of the elements of the stimulus programs are short-sighted but these three specific metals can be obtained from more than one country of origin...
    Mar 25 05:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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