Michael A. Gayed, CFA

Mutual fund manager, cfa, registered investment advisor, macro
Michael A. Gayed, CFA
Mutual fund manager, CFA, registered investment advisor, macro
Contributor since: 2007
Company: Pension Partners, LLC
Stocks were up last week.
Never said the VIX was predictive of anything. And with due respect: http://bit.ly/1Wma7fK
Since 2008, the gap has factually gone parabolic in rate of change. Fed has been the variable.
Fed has plenty of dollars for you both.
Certain actions were unequivocally necessary to save the system. Issue is what happened after that in my opinion. And I prefer not to be mad all the time :)
Disinflationary pressure comes from demographics, technology, and the wealth gap - largely because it puts downward pressure on the velocity of money.
In their efforts to prevent destruction creatively, the Fed eliminated creative destruction which is healthy long term. This is more of an issue I believe than most realize.
Deflationary pressure has persisted largely since 2013. Never said outright deflation, but I do think you're dangerously close to it longer term.
Things can only change if anger is the catalyst. Agree on the trading point - precisely why I linked to our paper.
Wouldn't say the Fed is stupid - rather that they underestimate the impact financial repression has on societal trends.
The long end of the curve seems to suggest a rate hike would add contractionary pressure. It's not outside the realm of possibilities.
You know - mean reversion is as old as the Bible. He who is first shall be last, and last first. I'm pretty sure that's mean reversion, and exactly how markets work.
It's gonna be uge...
Will be on CNBC today at 3:50 PM EST addressing some of this. Show the love and tune in.
You are correct - it was the largest daily change in the VIX index for the last day of the year ever in history. Appreciate you correcting that.
For the better part of the last 4 months, I've been actively hitting the road doing presentations around the country on our award winning papers for various CFA and MTA Societies. The CFA Virginia Chapter was kind enough to professionally record my live presentation.
Whether you have followed us for some time tracking our analysis, use our mutual funds and separate accounts, or have an interest in proof that markets are inefficient, I highly recommend you view the presentation at http://bit.ly/1zNPhdm.
Feedback welcome, and Happy Holidays.
Best,
Michael A. Gayed, CFA
1) You reference purely return. Investing is not about return alone, but also drawdown and volatility. Your ability to stick to a strategy is more important than the strategy itself. That ability is driven purely by volatility.
2) That paper, as well as the 2014 Dow Award paper, documents ingredients that go into the secret sauce. I have never once in writing, in the media, or in my presentations around the country said that our alternative strategy is that specific approach, but rather that Treasuries and Utilities are among the inputs of our risk trigger.
Which paper are you referencing?
Not sure what's an advertisement about a paper that I believe can help investors/traders, and won an award for the approach.
You reference an absolute return product which has zero correlation to US stocks, US bonds, and emerging markets, which has outperformed 2 out of 3 while NOT being constant beta since inception, and with negative downside capture against our benchmark. The type of strategy and objective matters if you're going to address results.
Which equities? You reference an absolute return product which has zero correlation to US stocks, US bonds, and emerging markets, which has outperformed 2 out of 3 while NOT being constant beta since inception, and with negative downside capture against our benchmark.
Second paper will be released once the official announcement has been made. Appreciate the sarcasm ;)
I would encourage you to read that paper and the second award winning paper to be released in the next couple of weeks. That is not traditional technical analysis by any means. There is signaling power in relative movement based on cause and effect.
I did not say small caps were crashing in absolute terms. It is an alpha crash given how fast that outperformance was removed.
Will try not to ;)
Not sure why you say that is "nonsense." All alpha and outperformance has been erased relative to the S&P 500. If you believe relative outperformance and ratio analysis has no merit, I look forward to your thoughts on the award winning white papers I co-authored.
I may end up being totally wrong, but the volume spike was notable. Happy new year friend.
Bingo