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Michael A. Gayed, CFA

 
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  • The Bear Inverse Bubble [View article]
    For regulatory purposes, I am not permitted to speak directly to the vehicle you reference in a public forum. However, I will say that our current inflation rotation strategies are very purposely designed NOT to be constant beta oriented, and more absolute return. This is why our benchmarks are NOT the S&P 500 for our ATAC models which rotate between bonds and stocks. The right comparison matters, which can be found through any outside 3rd party vendor which categorizes strategies based on stated objectives. All of this is public information, and factual.

    As to your latter comment, some background for you. I write a weekly commentary every Sunday which goes out to people who are signed up to our newsletter. I then distribute this writing on SeekingAlpha essentially word for word. While I can understand the source of your thinking, this was meant more to be an announcement of why the change in tone is occurring for future writings. You are more than welcome to challenge an approach if the challenge is valid. To compare something which is NOT meant to be an equity-only strategy to an equity-only strategy is the wrong construct. Sharpe ratio of Bitcoin is through the roof, yet one would never make the same comparison. Commodities? Negative. Bonds? Negative. Emerging Markets? Negative. Moderate Allocation strategies? Gold?

    Thanks much.
    Dec 4 05:58 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Long Will Money Grow On QEs? [View article]
    I agree on many points, but valuations are high within the context of inflation expectations, and I could easily argue that the biggest similarity between now and the Summer Crash of 2011 is a significant reflation disconnect.
    Nov 6 08:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Europe Rally Nearing Its End? [View article]
    Questions regarding our buy and rotate absolute return alternative strategies should be directed to pensionpartners.com. Thank you.
    Oct 24 04:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fear Not Washington, But Rather Overbought [View article]
    Growth and inflation are NOT inflation expectations. Rising yields are NOT, I repeat NOT how you gauge inflation expectations. I have already shown that 2009 was about rising inflation expectations. Your statements are at odds with history: http://bit.ly/16QmZnZ
    Oct 8 07:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fear Not Washington, But Rather Overbought [View article]
    Yields had one of their biggest moves over a rolling 3-4 month period in history.
    Oct 8 03:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fear Not Washington, But Rather Overbought [View article]
    Once again, your characterization is incorrect as literally hundreds of times this year I have on air and in writings differentiated rising rates that are gradual (healthy due to rising inflation expectations) vs spiking yields which are not. You can not ignore speed, context, and inflation expectations.
    Oct 8 03:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fear Not Washington, But Rather Overbought [View article]
    You are assuming, incorrectly imo, that absolute yield was being rational in the spike. The disconnect with that, once again, is the way inflation expectations behaved. I will attempt to address this in a writing in the future. Best of luck.
    Oct 8 02:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fear Not Washington, But Rather Overbought [View article]
    "You still didn't tell me why yields have gone up" - have addressed this all year. Happened on taper talk, combined with a panic over a "rising rate environment" overwhelming the Fed's $85 billion/month.
    Oct 8 02:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fear Not Washington, But Rather Overbought [View article]
    You are looking purely at yields, and not inflation expectations friend. In 2009, inflation expectations rose alongside yields. Not same now: http://bit.ly/GLQsmh
    Oct 8 02:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fear Not Washington, But Rather Overbought [View article]
    "Spiking yields would tell me inflation expectations went UP, not DOWN." No - spiking yields serve as a deflationary shock.

    Inflation expectations FACTUALLY have been falling: http://bloom.bg/1gnEBch-BqzndZEORkCB~ybq15X1f...
    Oct 8 02:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fear Not Washington, But Rather Overbought [View article]
    Not sure I see the contradiction. Fed stimulus is ineffective if its too small (causing inflation expectations to fall), and withdrawing QE on an ineffective number would only worsen that. Its a question of magnitude. The fact that yields spiked tells you that.
    Oct 8 12:21 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Deflation Epiphany? [View article]
    Seeing a snapshot of holdings on a particular day when we rotate actively does not provide a picture of our strategies over time.
    Sep 29 10:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Deflation Epiphany? [View article]
    There are factual inaccuracies in your comment which will be addressed in the annual shareholder letter. Happy to discuss directly anytime through pensionpartners.com.
    Sep 29 08:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Nasty Surprises Happen [View article]
    Specific questions regarding our inflation rotation strategies, for compliance purposes, must be directed towards pensionpartners.com.
    Sep 8 05:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Nasty Surprises Happen [View article]
    Spiking yields can be the crisis - this was what 1987 ultimately was about since yields spiked into the stock market advance, before reversing sharply on the Crash.
    Sep 8 05:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,340 Comments
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