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Michael A. Gayed, CFA  

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  • 'Dividendsanity' And The Case For Sticking With Utilities ETFs [View article]
    Appreciate the counter-perspective and reference. There is one element here which is missing - valuation. Dividend sectors such as Utilities, Healthcare, and Consumer Staples are vastly overpriced on a P/E basis, as I discussed on CNBC yesterday:

    I certainly understand and respect where you are coming from, but given inflation targeting and valuation, income is far more expensive relative to growth now than in the recent part. Part of my Summer Surprise call is that a reversal in that relationship occurs.

    Keep in mind that ratio analysis must be considered within the context of the environment. In the case of the "false bottom" - you are correct, but this was because the context favored a "Summer Crash" last year as I wrote of first here on Seeking Alpha on June 8, 2011. Within context today, the negative narrative and love for dividends seems like a vastly overcrowded play.
    Jun 26, 2012. 11:24 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Summer Surprise Of 2012, Or The Great Realization [View article]
    The counter to all that is that EMs have already performed poorly. I also don't quite undersand the "you don't have a clue" statement when I write frequently and outline my reasonings clearly.
    Jun 24, 2012. 08:18 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobs Don't Matter: Inflation Expectations Suggest Higher Highs To Come [View article]
    Why should markets crash March 8, 2009 and bottom March 9th? Markets don't need a reason - they simply need the right conditions.
    Feb 4, 2012. 09:56 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Forcing Credit Spread Contraction [View article]
    A good counterpoint which is why the future is always a may and always about probabilities and not certainties. Its also important to distinguish here that expectations for inflation may ultimately prove false. However, prices in the now are determined by crowd perception.
    Jan 28, 2012. 12:57 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Prices May Play Out Like It's 2008 [View article]
    You are making an assumption that the bond market, which is screaming deflation, is wrong and that we are not in a recession now. You may be correct, but so far the bond market is clearly signaling something major in terms of economic growth is underway.
    Aug 27, 2011. 10:57 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Helicopter Ben and the Summer Crash of 2011 [View article]
    As I have noted in a number of prior articles, I do not a believe a "Crash" has to be defined by one day, or by a set specific percentage decline. The Crash of 1987 took the Dow back in time by 9 months. This Crash took the S&P 500 back in time by 10 months. Three weeks of losses have nearly erased a full year of gains. The post-Lehman "rolling Crash" occurred over a couple of weeks. A Crash can be defined by how far back in time markets take you.

    As to your other point, I recommend looking back at the analysis itself. I have spent much of my time over the years studying academic paper after academic paper analyzing internal market dynamics. My reasoning for why I believed it would happen is based on knowledge of how prior declines have occurred and pre-cursors to those declines.
    Aug 21, 2011. 09:26 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QE3 Is You and Me: Implications on the Summer Crash [View article]
    From my own studies of sector and asset class analysis, usually defensives lead first warning of an impending decline, and then any and all things equity related break down. Bonds in such a period will tend to act inversely to stocks, until at some point the decline has exhausted itself. If that occurs again, I suspect the beta-driven decline would indeed cause yields to rise for dividend-oriented stocks.
    Jun 27, 2011. 04:04 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Junk Debt Dilemma and the Summer Crash of 2011 [View article]
    I firmly believe the reasoning stated is incorrect. The decline that happened in Junk was a massive credit event on May 6th, no different than that experienced in the dark days of 2008. It was a multiple standard deviation event in high yield securities. Furthermore, Junk Debt is higher up on the collateral food chain than equities, meaning that because Junk Debt actually has some collateral backing it up on average, the decline was a significant credit event that equities reacted to after the decline.
    Jun 24, 2011. 06:50 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver: From First to Worst [View article]
    The issue is not fundamentals, but rather the speed of the price rise. It is never magnitude which causes a significant decline - it is velocity of price that matters.
    May 11, 2011. 11:38 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver: From First to Worst [View article]
    The only thing that's for sure is that nothing is for sure.
    May 11, 2011. 10:26 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brazil An Early Fat Pitch? [View article]
    The wonders of Google ;)
    Mar 12, 2013. 01:20 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Draghi Flip The Spring Switch? [View article]
    Will be an interesting week. Draghi now has out himself into a situtation where he quite literally can not back down.
    Jul 29, 2012. 08:32 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Summer Surprise Of 2012, Or The Great Realization [View article]
    AAII sentiment surveys, fund flow dara, rhetoric online, and conversations we have with clients show unquestionable bearishness. Markets going up and pessimism can go hand in hand.
    Jun 24, 2012. 08:16 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Selling The 'Sell In May, Go Away' Strategy [View article]
    Volaitlity is highly correlated to deflation pulses. When the crowd fears deflation, volatility does trend up. That's what the two downtrends in the ratio in 2010 and 2011 were all about.
    Apr 30, 2012. 09:03 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Selling The 'Sell In May, Go Away' Strategy [View article]
    Not about what I "wish for" but about what market internals suggest could happen.
    Apr 30, 2012. 09:02 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment