Seeking Alpha
  • Michael A. Gayed, CFA
    The Fall Melt-Up I first wrote about 9/29 may still be in its early phases on SPY IWM EEM EFA
    10/26/11
    Reply (18)
    • inquisitivemind7: define "early." when do you think it will end?It will be very difficult for market to continue rallying w/ horrible December 2nd jobs report
      10/26/11
    • 1980XLS: Bad jobs=Good for stocks. No labor cost pricing pressure on business. Stop thinking stocks rising, requires vibrant economy.
      10/26/11
    • inquisitivemind7: it's not just bad jobs report, around that time, PMIR, housing #s, etc are going to drop off like flies and market cannot ignore this.
      10/26/11
    • inquisitivemind7: market is very sensitive to rate of growth, slowly deaccelerating at first but as deacceleration accelerates, market will plunge.
      10/26/11
    • 1980XLS: You have been brainwashed. Cheap housing is good for the economy and the American dream for the young, just not bankster's balance sheets.
      10/26/11
    • inquisitivemind7: bad macro will feed into bad micro w/ a lag time (since it is procyclical) and later, corporate earnings will eventually reflect this.
      10/26/11
    • inquisitivemind7: from Dec 2011 to Jan/Feb 2012, I do not see a letdown in the contracting growth, I'm keeping my eye out for the next major BXMT rally.
      10/26/11
    • 1980XLS: Banksters and politicians want you to believe in higher housing prices, to perpetuate the Ponzi and indebted servitude.
      10/26/11
    • inquisitivemind7: Housing will bottom in 3-4yrs from now according to PMIR, perfectly feasible. It will probably bounce around btm for yrs before rebounding.
      10/26/11
    • inquisitivemind7: Don't get me wrong 1980XLS, I own significant portions of physical PM for as an inflationary hedge & will be solely investing in jr miners.
      10/26/11
    • inquisitivemind7: when the time is right, probably 8 months from now or when mkt has found a bottom/gold is at ~1300, silver ~14-18.
      10/26/11
    • Michael A. Gayed, CFA: I think new highs are possible by end of year.
      10/26/11
    • JCH57: New highs for the year, or new all-time highs?
      10/26/11
    • RyanDolan: I remember reading a great article... http://goo.gl/IoWtq not so long ago. It jives with your call for builders and financials to lead.
      10/26/11
    • inquisitivemind7: either is possible JCH57, it's hard to say but I disagree with Gayed's timing, we would have peaked before yr's end.
      10/26/11
    • RyanDolan: inquisitive... you might want to take a look at the article in the post I made above regarding housing bottoming. Another perspective.
      10/26/11
    • JCH57: IM7: I just like to see what people's opinions are. Not taking shots or trying to pin someone down. I learn a lot from investor sentiment.
      10/26/11
    • inquisitivemind7: ofc, I use PMIR's services for that purpose and for technical updates. they should be used to confirm the fundamentals (where mkt is going).
      10/26/11
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