Seeking Alpha
  • Michael A. Gayed, CFA
    Italy (EWI) changes everything.
    11/9/11
    Reply (26)
    • shaker33: No more fall melt-up.
      11/9/11
    • Michael A. Gayed, CFA: October may have been it. Will be writing to address this.
      11/9/11
    • inquisitivemind7: so you're saying one should short here?
      11/9/11
    • Michael A. Gayed, CFA: I'm saying the probabilities for further gains have diminished substantially. Italy is a major major deal.
      11/9/11
    • inquisitivemind7: You don't think the EU can bandage Italy for at least a month?
      11/9/11
    • Mr. Massive: Italy is lehmans
      11/9/11
    • Mr. Massive: hasnt fallen yet - but they gotta do something fast
      11/9/11
    • Michael A. Gayed, CFA: Very fast...days not months.
      11/9/11
    • inquisitivemind7: I think they will be able to patch up Italy before market falls apart for November, market will rally to at least one new rally high & then
      11/9/11
    • inquisitivemind7: market turnsover in December.
      11/9/11
    • Demi9OD: Really glad to your melt up call is not so set in stone that it can't be retracted when macro situation merits it.
      11/9/11
    • Demi9OD: to see
      11/9/11
    • Mercy Jimenez: Italy's 5-year bond auction next Monday may be moment of truth.
      11/9/11
    • Michael A. Gayed, CFA: "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?" - John Maynard Keynes
      11/9/11
    • Conventional Wisdumb: IM7 says that PMIR has issued a sell signal
      11/9/11
    • jason2713: I completely agree, and Spain will be next.
      11/9/11
    • breathedml: Today's price action says Italy is a big deal although we saw it coming a mile away. Hardly a Lehman-like event in my book. Went short.
      11/9/11
    • Michael A. Gayed, CFA: What is at issue is the speed at which Italy is deteriorating.
      11/9/11
    • dieuwer: Dear Michael, don't capitulate! I still think markets will go higher until early next year (Feb-Mar).
      11/10/11
    • Michael A. Gayed, CFA: I am not capitulating. I am stressing that Italy in many ways could shock markets back down.
      11/10/11
    • dieuwer: Everyone knows about Italy. A real black swan event would be for instance the announcement of the re-introduction of the Deutchmark.
      11/10/11
    • dieuwer: I guess we should differentiate which market will continue to move up and which not. TIP/IEF, WTIC/SPY breaking out. TLT in fact is down.
      11/10/11
    • Michael A. Gayed, CFA: The Black Swan is the speed at which Italy could unfold. Everyone also knew about the housing. How it plays out is the dilemma.
      11/10/11
    • dieuwer: I can only speak for myself: I am already bored with Italy and I am already thinking of France (and Germany herself).
      11/10/11
    • dieuwer: France will be a no no for bond shorts. I think that Sarkozy if necessary will FORCE the ECB to monetize French debt. To hell with Merkel.
      11/10/11
    • dieuwer: I speaks volumes to me that an Italian is head of the ECB while two Germans have resigned, and soon an new French member will be appointed.
      11/10/11
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