Seeking Alpha
  • Michael A. Gayed, CFA
    Someone needs to start telling the Boards of Pfizer PFE, Ford F, and General Electric GE to stop raising dividends. Its a crisis right?
    12/12/11
    Reply (30)
    • Trader14: Awfully flippant for a guy who keeps changing his mind without listing any price targets ahead of time that would make you change your mind.
      12/12/11
    • Michael A. Gayed, CFA: And what exactly are you referring you in regards to "keeps changing his mind"? And sorry, don't believe in price targets.
      12/12/11
    • Michael A. Gayed, CFA: And yes - post was meant to be sarcastic.
      12/12/11
    • Trader14: Well you did cancel the Fall Melt up, before the market rose again and you announced that it was back on, didn't you?
      12/12/11
    • Michael A. Gayed, CFA: I didn't cancel it - the Fed did as I wrote about through global intervention.
      12/12/11
    • Michael A. Gayed, CFA: Went from Fall Melt-Up in late September, December Breakdown once yields in Italy spiked overnight ending Melt-Up, to back to Melt-Up based
      12/12/11
    • Michael A. Gayed, CFA: on intervention. Not sure what the issue is - I have written about this progression in my article "the Fall Melt-Up Returns"
      12/12/11
    • Trader14: Yes on 11/25, u wrote the December to Remember had broken down, SPY at 116.5, u then announced on 12/2 that the rally was back on, SPY 124.8
      12/12/11
    • Trader14: I think qualifies as changing your mind, after a 7% move, now if this market turns down here, anyone trying to follow you whipsawed badly
      12/12/11
    • Michael A. Gayed, CFA: Anyone trying to "follow me" knows my articles focus on conditions. When intervention causes conditions to change, so does the analysis.
      12/12/11
    • Michael A. Gayed, CFA: And if you think there's a silver bullet to forecasting, please do share. Everyone has been "whipsawed" badly this year. Good luck to you.
      12/12/11
    • Trader14: There is no silver bullet to forecasting, my exact point, that's why traders/investors deal with price targets not cute sayings...
      12/12/11
    • Trader14: like "Fall Melt Up", or "December to Remember"
      12/12/11
    • Michael A. Gayed, CFA: Price targets have been proven through a number of studies to be meaningless. Conditions, on the other hands, are proven. Take care.
      12/12/11
    • Trader14: Hang on, so what level would markets need to fall to for you to switch back to your 11/25 view that markets were breaking down?
      12/12/11
    • Michael A. Gayed, CFA: They don't need to fall to any level - the internals of the market have to change. If you read any of my articles, that is clear.
      12/12/11
    • Trader14: So your predictions about where equity prices are headed has nothing to do with the price that currently exist in marketplace?
      12/12/11
    • Michael A. Gayed, CFA: That is 100% correct. You should read my articles to understand how my approach works.
      12/12/11
    • Trader14: Ok, so you would agree that you articles are more theoretical then actionable since you don't concen yourself with current prices.
      12/12/11
    • Michael A. Gayed, CFA: Incorrect - once again, if you read the articles, you'll understand the approach. Won't keep countering unless you read the material.
      12/12/11
    • Trader14: Ok, I will read a few full articles see if I feel any differently. I'll be back thanks for the discussion
      12/12/11
    • Michael A. Gayed, CFA: I recommend looking at the original June 8th article calling for the Sumemr Crash, Sept. 29 calling for Fall Melt-Up, and others after.
      12/12/11
    • Trader14: Read your Dec 5 article, and yes it appears very theoretical, you don't include any actionable price levels.
      12/12/11
    • Trader14: You don't list any price level or even actual event that would let u admit you were wrong about coming rally, yet leave many possible "outs"
      12/12/11
    • Michael A. Gayed, CFA: I don't think this will be resolved. I focus on conditions - price levels have been shown to be meaningless in a number of studies. Best of
      12/12/11
    • Trader14: Traders and Investors work with real prices, anything that tries to predict movement but fails to acknowledge prices is just sales material.
      12/12/11
    • Michael A. Gayed, CFA: luck to you.
      12/12/11
    • Trader14: Last question and thanks again for your discussion, I'll give you last word, "How do you know when you got it wrong?"
      12/12/11
    • Michael A. Gayed, CFA: When the future becomes present. Fair?
      12/12/11
    • Trader14: I said I'd give you last word so I'll stop there, but I do find the answer interesting, thanks again for the discussion, I do appreciate it
      12/12/11