Seeking Alpha

Michael A. Gayed

View as an RSS Feed
View Michael A. Gayed's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Fear Not Washington, But Rather Overbought [View article]
    You are looking purely at yields, and not inflation expectations friend. In 2009, inflation expectations rose alongside yields. Not same now: http://bit.ly/GLQsmh
    Oct 8 02:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fear Not Washington, But Rather Overbought [View article]
    "Spiking yields would tell me inflation expectations went UP, not DOWN." No - spiking yields serve as a deflationary shock.

    Inflation expectations FACTUALLY have been falling: http://bloom.bg/1gnEBch-BqzndZEORkCB~ybq15X1f...
    Oct 8 02:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fear Not Washington, But Rather Overbought [View article]
    Not sure I see the contradiction. Fed stimulus is ineffective if its too small (causing inflation expectations to fall), and withdrawing QE on an ineffective number would only worsen that. Its a question of magnitude. The fact that yields spiked tells you that.
    Oct 8 12:21 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Deflation Epiphany? [View article]
    Seeing a snapshot of holdings on a particular day when we rotate actively does not provide a picture of our strategies over time.
    Sep 29 10:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Deflation Epiphany? [View article]
    There are factual inaccuracies in your comment which will be addressed in the annual shareholder letter. Happy to discuss directly anytime through pensionpartners.com.
    Sep 29 08:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Nasty Surprises Happen [View article]
    Specific questions regarding our inflation rotation strategies, for compliance purposes, must be directed towards pensionpartners.com.
    Sep 8 05:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Nasty Surprises Happen [View article]
    Spiking yields can be the crisis - this was what 1987 ultimately was about since yields spiked into the stock market advance, before reversing sharply on the Crash.
    Sep 8 05:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Nasty Surprises Happen [View article]
    Thanks for the question. Both on CNBC and Bloomberg, as well as in my writings on Marketwatch in addition to the piece Marc Faber of the Gloom, Boom, and Doom Report, I have addressed how emerging markets might behave. To be very clear, a 1987 style Crash is NOT my base case scenario, but I do believe the yield spike is highly underappreciated. Emerging markets are entirely about alpha potential, and can rally in the face of a correcting US stock market IF any kind of a correction is NOT a crash. Hope that helps.
    Sep 8 05:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Nasty Surprises Happen [View article]
    You might want to click the link to historical yield spikes - no one has yet to counter me factually on this. Nor has anyone factually countered me on the speed of stock to bond outperformance looking precisely like pre-1987. Nor has anyone seemingly noticed I said explicitly that the only difference between now and 1987 is central bank paranoia over the wealth effect. Not beating a drum friend - presenting factual data.
    Sep 8 02:22 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Boy Who Cried Wolf, And Crashes [View article]
    Regarding speed relative to stock price movement, this is not like 1994 from a stock bond ratio perspective. The out of sync nature of bonds to stocks is precisely what caused the Crash, which a price ratio relative to the longer term trend clearly shows (and which I will show for Marc Faber's next writing).
    Aug 18 08:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time For Emerging Markets To Emerge [View article]
    Fact 1: Over the past two weeks, US small caps are down 3.30%. Broad emerging market averages are down 1%. This is PRECISELY the type of outperformance I have been addressing.

    Fact 2: To provide constructive crticism, you have to know how a strategy works and what the time frame is. You can not crticize something when you do not know what it is you are criticizing. Nothing you've said impacts facts about emerging markets which nearly everyone on the Street is underweight, and which in turn for a trade can outperform on marginal re-allocation independent of your analysis.

    Fact 3: I engage with those who are respectful. You could absolutely be right a year from now, but you assume incorrectly that this is a trade for a year. Time frame matters. Take care.
    Aug 17 09:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time For Emerging Markets To Emerge [View article]
    Appreciate that - and look forward to a positive conclusion :).

    Feel free to reach out to us directly any time, as there is quite a bit that goes into why we developed our models the way we did.
    Aug 12 02:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time For Emerging Markets To Emerge [View article]
    Everyone loves a comeback...
    Aug 12 01:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time For Emerging Markets To Emerge [View article]
    Buy and rotate that does not hold equity risk at all times is not the same as buy and hold in any single asset class. Looking forward to you watching us over time.
    Aug 12 01:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time For Emerging Markets To Emerge [View article]
    Appreciate the clarification. My response is due to others who comment on a quantitative strategy under the assumption they understand the inputs. My writings attempt to simply give voice to that. Thanks for the reply, and I apologize if I came across too strong.
    Aug 11 07:17 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,332 Comments
1,248 Likes