Long-term is a rolling series of short-terms. It is far more observable to see that which is on the horizon than beyond it. Your statement regarding "constant changes of opinions" is an incorrect characterization given that I have correctly "called" nearly every major market move this year with dated proof, within the context of the reflation theme for 2012 I pounded the table on since January. I am simply addressing short-term price movements based on intermarket trends.
Actually, I've talked about "permanent QE" a number of times in my writings and on CNBC and Bloomberg. While the Fed is buying Treasuries through Operation Twist, it is telegraphed and does NOT explain the speed of yield moves - those can only be explained through the risk-on/off world we live in. Thanks for reading.
Frank - back in January I began to aggressively make the case that 2012 would likely be a year of reflation similar to 2003/2009 on the idea of central bank paranoia over a 2008 repeat. Within that year-long macro call were my calls for the "mini-correction" of May I made in April, the melt-up call June 4th (the day of the low), and this most recent corrective period post QE3 within the context of still higher highs by end of year. Hope that clears things up. For all itnents and purposes, this has so far been a stellar year for U.S. stocks, up over 14% total return year to date based on the S&P 500 index. After inflation, this ranks as an outsized year above mean performance for equities.
Agree on the idea that it felt like a meaningful correction. The median stock from the peak actually fell fairly substantially based on some of the data I've seen. Thanks for the comment.
Be careful - markets could easily turn around next week. The point is that gains need to hold and continued improvement internally needs to take place for the odds of a real trend higher to increase.
Next week will be key - we are close and bullish signs are building (along with evidence that this was mroe like the May mini-correction due to the Bear Paradox), but confirmation is needed. Thanks for the comment.
Mini-Correction Over? [View article]
Mini-Correction Over? [View article]
Mini-Correction Over? [View article]
Mini-Correction Over? [View article]
Mini-Correction Over? [View article]
Mini-Correction Over? [View article]
Mini-Correction Over? [View article]
Mini-Correction Over? [View article]
Mini-Correction Over? [View article]
Mini-Correction Over? [View article]
Stocks Correct In Global Risk-Off [View article]
Stocks Correct In Global Risk-Off [View article]
Stocks Correct In Global Risk-Off [View article]
Risks Remain In This Market [View article]
Risks Remain In This Market [View article]