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Michael Allen  

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  • What The Bears Don't Get About Amazon [View article]
    You attempt to justify the bull case with numbers is laudable, and I enjoyed the article. As an analyst, you have to try to figure out a plausible reason for why the market is doing whatever it is doing. But unfortunately, even if you're numbers are right, a sane market would not pay as much for all these what-ifs as it does for a company that actually makes the profit. What if Jeff Bezos gets in a car accident and breaks his neck?
    Oct 18, 2013. 03:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Importance Of P/E Ratios In Selecting Stocks - An S&P 500 Case Study [View article]
    1) Obviously, you have a small-cap bias in your data, since every decile outperforms the market, even if you include dividends, and it's entirely unclear why you chose not to. 2. Rebalancing monthly is totally impractical. If you replace your portfolio every month, as you could with this strategy, the commission and slippage costs could be as much as 12% annually for an individual investor - maybe more. All of your gains would be taxed at the short-term rate, which, for anyone who has enough wealth to engage in this kind of strategy after state and local taxes, could easily be half of your gains.
    Jul 29, 2013. 05:35 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Warning: Bond Bears Might Be From The Twilight Zone [View article]
    Nice trading, but I hope you are not suggesting that what happened between 2009 and 2013 was enough to form a statistically meaningful thesis. That would be a great example of twilight zone thinking.
    Jun 17, 2013. 08:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Warning: Bond Bears Might Be From The Twilight Zone [View article]
    This time it's different, right? There is simply no validity to the often used argument that the foreign component of earnings has enabled US corporations to escape cyclicality. The foreign component of earnings doubled over the past 30 years, but has had absolutely no impact on the cyclicality of earnings. We shall see if labor and benefit cost curtailment is sustainable.
    Jun 17, 2013. 07:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Warning: Bond Bears Might Be From The Twilight Zone [View article]
    I was never a top rated “advisor.” I was an analyst, where institutional investors consistently voted me in the top 3 in my industry for more than a decade. My hedge-fund clients never suffered a down year in 6 years of trying. I left because I wanted to raise my son in the United States, where I felt he would have better opportunities, and yes, it may seem as if I have paid a high price career wise, but I have never regretted my choice. I write for Seeking Alpha because I enjoy sharing what I have learned from my research with others.
    Jun 17, 2013. 01:32 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Warning: Bond Bears Might Be From The Twilight Zone [View article]
    You’ve done a lot of research to support your venting, so I’m surprised that you didn’t notice that I am personally long both equities and bonds. I do not have the ability to notify Seeking Alpha every time that I change my mind, but I’m not embarrassed to say that the Aug 12 article was wrong, and that it forced me to make significant adjustments to my approach. I’m pretty much OK with the results. Thank you for asking.
    Jun 17, 2013. 01:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Warning: Bond Bears Might Be From The Twilight Zone [View article]
    Not sure what makes you say this. I'm not aware of implying any such thing about deflation. But I do take it for granted that private sector innovation goes on all the time and is nothing new.
    Jun 16, 2013. 11:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Warning: Bond Bears Might Be From The Twilight Zone [View article]
    My assumption is that corporate profits as a percent of GDP are very far above sustainable levels. Numerous other analysts have come to the same conclusion. Therefore, there is no necessary connection with nominal GDP.
    Jun 16, 2013. 11:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equity Returns And Inflation [View article]
    Agreed on all the caveats. I'll have a look at your inflation forecasts.
    Jun 14, 2013. 07:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Invest In Turkey While There's Still Blood In The Streets? [View article]
    Rothschild had insider information.
    Jun 13, 2013. 11:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Reinhart-Rogoff And Krugman Square Off Again, But Are They Arguing About The Right Issues? [View article]
    You raise a lot of intersting points as in your discussion of how to improve the structural integrity of a building that is in the process of burning to the ground. It is not very helpful to the people inside.
    Jun 12, 2013. 05:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Testing Krugman's Debt Reduction Strategy (And Finding It Fails) [View article]
    The May report of the CBO puts the deficit at 80% of GDP. I presume you have an alternative measure of debt that gets us to 105%?
    Jun 12, 2013. 05:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Abe's Three Arrows Or Japan's Hail Mary Pass? [View article]
    I think a lot of people start with the assumption that the yen was fairly valued when Abenomics started. It wasn't. There is no beggar-thy-neighbor policy, here, only a stop others from manipulating MY damned currency policy.
    Jun 12, 2013. 05:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Abenomics Over? I Don't Think So. [View article]
    BTW, we should all separate analysis of the Japanese equity market, which can do anything it wants to, from analysis of the economy, which has to follow rules.
    Jun 10, 2013. 07:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Abenomics Over? I Don't Think So. [View article]
    Anyone with any experience in Japanese equities knows that banks and insurers are net beneficiaries of higher interest rates. Everyone also knows that consumers are net beneficiaries of higher interest rates, as they are net savers. And surely even my pet rock knows that everyone in Japan is a net beneficiary of a weaker yen. Yet, even as the yen rose and interest rates fell, Japan's GDP rose 0.8% annually from 2001 to 2010 while its working-age population shrunk 5%. In contrast, the US dollar collapsed 25% and its population rose 9% during the same period, yet it mustered only 1.8% annual growth in GDP. I've lived in both countries for half my life, and one thing I notice is that its very easy for foreigners to point out flaws in each others cultures, and they are not wrong to do so. But if I were competing with a Japanese company today, with the new economic policy in place, I'd be very afraid.
    Jun 10, 2013. 07:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
164 Comments
171 Likes