Seeking Alpha

Michael B. Krause

 
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  • A Case For Shorting The Long Bond
    Thu, Aug. 7 TLT, ZROZ 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Real rates are too low given economic strength in the US.
    • Fear bid has continued to drive fixed income away from fair value.
    • 30 year yield is at 3.23% - 4-5% fair value target realizable as economic strength continues.
  • Tech 'Bubble' Or Nasdaq Buying Opportunity?
    Mon, Apr. 14 QQQ 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Not the end of growth outperformance.
    • Don't use journalistic consensus to determine your positioning.
    • Nasdaq buying opportunity.
  • Netflix Is Ready To Buy On Underestimated Market Power
    Editors' Pick • Wed, Mar. 26 NFLX 40 Comments

    Summary

    • NFLX is misunderstood by those who look at conventional valuation metrics.
    • The value is in its ability to scale up its streaming offering price.
    • The brand now has staying power. Less fad risk than ever.
  • Nikkei Undervalued: The Quantitative View
    Editors' Pick • Thu, Feb. 13 DXJ, EWJ, NKY 1 Comment
  • Why Shutterfly's Q3 Revenues Will Exceed Expectations
    Sep. 20, 2012 SFLY 1 Comment
  • Why Blue Nile's Q3 Revenues Will Disappoint Investors
    Editors' Pick • Sep. 17, 2012 AMZN, GOOG, NILE 12 Comments
  • Diamond Foods: $35 Price Target
    Feb. 15, 2012 DMND 19 Comments
  • Treasury Curve Still Speaks of Recovery
    Aug. 16, 2010 TLT 2 Comments
  • The Chinese Consumer: An Unexpected Reraveling
    Jan. 24, 2010 FXI, PGJ, CAF 8 Comments
  • Dispelling Fed Funds 'Myths' (Rates Aren't Going Up)
    Nov. 2, 2009 1 Comment
  • Natural Gas: Sell Producers, Buy UNG
    Sep. 16, 2009 UNG, CHK 4 Comments
  • Are Investors Fleeing to Quality Trades?
    Aug. 17, 2009 SPY, DIA 1 Comment
  • How Do the S&P and Gold Correlate?
    Aug. 17, 2009 SPY, GLD 3 Comments
  • Bank of Japan vs. the Fed
    Jun. 1, 2009 EWJ, FXY, DIA 5 Comments
  • Is This U.S. Dollar Move the Real Thing?
    May. 23, 2009 UUP, UDN, SPY 14 Comments
  • The Fed's Quant Easing Gameplan
    May. 1, 2009 SPY, DIA 6 Comments
  • Geithner's Plan: FDIC as the Bad Bank
    Mar. 24, 2009 XLF, BAC, C 3 Comments
  • Positioning for Reflation
    Mar. 22, 2009 TLT, XLF, BAC 17 Comments
  • Perspective on GDP
    Mar. 4, 2009 SPY 5 Comments
  • Bank Nationalization and the TARP
    Editors' Pick • Mar. 2, 2009 BAC, C, XLF 14 Comments
  • Buy Treasuries for a Trade
    Feb. 1, 2009 TLT, ABX, TBT 5 Comments
  • Treasuries CDS at Record Highs, Yet Yields Record Lows?
    Jan. 20, 2009 TBT Comment!
  • Blurry Multiples Result in Blurry Expectations for Markets
    Jan. 13, 2009 SPY, TLT, TBT Comment!
  • Rhodium: The Ultimate Reflationary Trade
    Dec. 18, 2008 GLD, SLV 3 Comments
  • Treasuries and the U.S. Dollar: Twin Bubbles
    Nov. 12, 2008 SPY, TLT, EWJ 12 Comments
  • The Fed's Policy May Be Responsible for Interbank Lending Seize-Up
    Oct. 27, 2008 SPY, TLT 5 Comments
  • Outrage at Potential Bailout: A Letter to Forward to Congress
    Sep. 22, 2008 TLT 1 Comment
  • The Bull Market in Credit Default Swaps
    Sep. 18, 2008 SPY, LQD, TLT 5 Comments
  • The Paragraph That Changed the World: Will Treasuries Crash?
    Sep. 8, 2008 SPY, QQQ, DIA 14 Comments
  • Housing Nowhere Near Bottom
    Sep. 7, 2008 XHB, SPY 3 Comments
  • Steve Ballmer: Time To Come Back to Yahoo
    Sep. 5, 2008 YHOO, MSFT 4 Comments
  • Time to Short Both Long-Term Bonds and Crude
    Jun. 27, 2008 TLT, USO, SPY 25 Comments