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Michael Blair

 
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  • BlackBerry Ekes Out A Profit Despite Sales Tanking [View article]
    @THE C MAN - Chen said not all 200,000 had been shipped.
    Dec 23, 2014. 09:48 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After The Apple Watch Should We Anticipate An Apple TV? [View article]
    @Alex Cho - maybe Apple will develop a one inch screen TV that will fit in an Apple Watch but beam its content onto a wall while it manages your coffee maker and toaster; opens your garage door; and, lets you know when your refrigerator has contents that are near expiry. Or, maybe not.

    Your article are well written and well researched. They also portray an implied view that only Apple can innovate and that everything with an Apple logo will immediately take the world by storm. Apple has had a few hits and has a great brand. But, the fact is it has invented very little, has a tiny share of the smartphone market, a falling share of the tablet market, and a fledgling entry into payments solely for iOS users which is a small fraction of the payments space.

    Ultimately, Apple will find that the business of milking its loyal fans with highly priced incremental improvements on its existing products will run its course and they will begin to see that contributing their hard earned money to make Apple the world's most valuable company comes at the expense of a lot less money for their retirement plan; their kids university education; and, their mortgage payments.

    If you invested the amount you spend on iDevices and the related plans for them in your IRA or Roth you would retire a rich man. Think about it. After all, the iPhone is, well, a phone and the Apple Watch is, well, a watch.

    It is hard to see why Apple would want to sell a TV when TV use is falling as people consume content increasingly on other devices. http://cnnmon.ie/1ChMgCu
    Dec 20, 2014. 06:44 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West Should Cut Its Dividend; If It Does I Will Buy More [View article]
    @Brian McMorris - PWE has enormous leverage to oil prices in both directions right now. Any recovery and the stock will fly. An extended period of $35 to $40 oil and there is trouble. But as you point out, there are plenty of U.S. shale producers with a lot more leverage and a lot more exposure. It will be fun to watch. Good luck with your investments.
    Dec 20, 2014. 06:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West Should Cut Its Dividend; If It Does I Will Buy More [View article]
    @Uncle Pie - we have that in common. I took a bath on Oilexco. The deal was terrific for Premier.
    Dec 19, 2014. 09:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Slashing The Dividend Is A Wise Move By Penn West [View article]
    @eleppin - safe is too much to hope for. If oil prices continue south it could be a rout. If prices recover to the $75 to $80 U.S. range this stock will soar. It is anyone's guess. I am long PWE.
    Dec 19, 2014. 06:45 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Finally Takes E-Commerce Seriously, Hardware Looking Bullish [View article]
    @Egon Zee - great article. Fun to read.
    Dec 18, 2014. 01:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Decisive Cuts In Dividends And Capital Outlays Make Washed Out Oil And Gas Producers A Good Bet [View article]
    @Albert Alfonso - I think ERF is one of the better names in the space. Hedging has protected the balance sheet and despite a cut in capex should show modest growth in 2015.
    Dec 18, 2014. 01:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West Should Cut Its Dividend; If It Does I Will Buy More [View article]
    @Uncle Pie - the forecast depends more than anything on capital efficiency going forward rather than historic. If capital efficiency falls from historic $37,500 to more realistic $30,000 or less (which I expect with the new team and its performance to date) and a base decline rate of about 22%, $660 million of capital will maintain current production. If capital efficiency can be brought to best in class of about $25,000, that falls to $550 million. High grading at Viking, Slave Point and Cardium will likely to the trick. Leverage to commodity prices is high in both directions. I like the bet.
    Dec 18, 2014. 01:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Decisive Cuts In Dividends And Capital Outlays Make Washed Out Oil And Gas Producers A Good Bet [View article]
    @River18 - I added a few thousand shares of Twin Butte today. It has pretty good sustainability even in a low price environment and plenty of upside if prices rise for the commodities.
    Dec 18, 2014. 10:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West Cuts Dividend 80%, Now Yields 6% [View article]
    @Albert Alfonso - great article. The funding gap is small in context and the forecast of oil prices at $65 for 2015 has risk in both directions. Of course, the $65 is Canadian dollars; depends not only on WTI but on the spread to Edmonton Par; and, includes natural gas at a 6:1 gas to oil ratio. A lot of Canadian forecasters see the effective price in 2015 somewhat higher than $65 but there are so many volatile moving parts it is anyone's guess. At the same time the drilling program will be "high graded" and capital efficiencies will be better than historic. The point is that PWE will come through this downturn in reasonable shape.
    Dec 18, 2014. 07:25 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Decisive Cuts In Dividends And Capital Outlays Make Washed Out Oil And Gas Producers A Good Bet [View article]
    @Hendrick - I am well underwater on PGH, PWE and LTS but not bad on ERF. I sold my COS a few weeks ago just over $20 and will buy back in. I also hold BNE, BXE, and a handful of smaller players. I don't think it is that high of a hill to climb since I aggressively added at close to recent bottoms and my average cost came down considerably before a recent bounce of 10 to 20% depending on the name. I like my holdings.
    Dec 17, 2014. 09:16 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Decisive Cuts In Dividends And Capital Outlays Make Washed Out Oil And Gas Producers A Good Bet [View article]
    @Thesavvyinvestor - I like the assets and the management team but a bit concerned about the debt load. Having said that I think Surge can manage its capital program and still have free cash flow at $65 Cdn a barrel from which to pay its dividend if it chooses. I expect and would be encouraged by a cut in the dividend. Capital efficiencies are about $35,000 a barrel which is on the high side but decline rates are lower than most at about 22% which gives Surge some protection in this environment.
    Dec 17, 2014. 06:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Decisive Cuts In Dividends And Capital Outlays Make Washed Out Oil And Gas Producers A Good Bet [View article]
    @Albert Alfonso - there is no doubt they can afford to pay it. But a better use of funds may be to buy distressed assets from those who cannot. Either way I am long PGH and adding.
    Dec 17, 2014. 05:58 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Decisive Cuts In Dividends And Capital Outlays Make Washed Out Oil And Gas Producers A Good Bet [View article]
    @croppled1 - I expect them to reduce the dividend at their next meeting. It does not make sense to eat lower cash flows and stretch the balance sheet at this point in time.
    Dec 17, 2014. 03:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More About The Intel Investor Meeting [View article]
    @Russ Fischer - another inspiring article reinforcing the view that Intel is neither dead nor dying but on the eve of a resurgence of growth the market can't see or prefers not to see. At the end of the day the entire computing industry depends on semiconductor manufacturers to relentlessly increase the power and reliability of their chips while reducing their size and cost. Intel is and has always been in the vanguard of this trend and I expect will continue to lead it forward with the possibility that its mountain of R&D and capital expenditures will simply leave many competing ideas in the dust. Any semiconductor portfolio or for that matter any technology portfolio that does not hold any Intel is in my view at risk.
    Dec 15, 2014. 01:52 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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