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Michael Blair  

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  • BlackBerry's Priv: Not The Savior The Company Needs [View article]
    @David653 - I agree shipments to carriers were very limited.
    Nov 24, 2015. 07:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: iPad Pro Is A Bust [View article]
    @Alex Pitti - solid article. Apple just seems to have missed the boat with this product, despite its potential. Having a large screened iOS device will appeal to many Apple fans but is unlikely to move anyone from a Surface or similar 2 in 1 running Windows 10, but the latter may prompt many iPad users to switch to Windows. Apple's saving grace is its very strong MacBook line which fortunately uses powerful Intel processors with x86 capability and runs OS X which has a decent library of applications including a very good MS Office suite and Adobe Creative, without which it would be of limited value.
    Nov 19, 2015. 05:59 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Qualcomm May Suffer A Long And Slow Descent As Its Core Technology Loses Luster [View article]
    @MarkOfO -Of course it is a protocol and thanks to Tim Berners-Lee for his innovation, but IP makes it possible to do away with CDMA and its successors as Verizon has done with the HTC device. IP does not replace CDMA, just makes it irrelevant.
    Nov 18, 2015. 10:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry's Priv: Not The Savior The Company Needs [View article]
    @Mark Hibben - I note you compare the Priv to the very recently released Apple iPhone 6S rather than the more prevalent iPhone 6. I understand why - the Priv makes the iPhone 6 look archaic.

    Before you write it off, try to buy one. You will find that pretty difficult since almost every one who carries the Priv is sold out.

    You may also find there is a growing concern over security that your beloved iPhone pays lip service to but in fact fails to provide. The iPhone 6S launch was contemporaneous with the worst security breach in iPhone history.

    Your last article points out that Apple continues to sell the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus and looks to them for volume in its fiscal Q1. The Priv compares favorably.

    Some informed observers think it compares well to the iPhone 6S as well, with intangibles making up the differences.

    I do think your quarterly estimate is quite reasonable. Given the Priv has just been released and is unlikely to have been produced in any real volume, Priv sales of $200 million could be ambitious for the period.
    Nov 16, 2015. 01:59 PM | 24 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Sifting iPhone Sales Data [View article]
    @Mark Hibben - great article with the sales of last year's model no doubt a factor in Q1 sales not to be overlooked. I have called iPhone sales within 5% for the last few quarters based on MixPanel and Fiksu data and the differences have been rounding errors. The Android data are useful. If there are 1.4 billion Android devices in use (rather than 1.6 billion) Tim Cooks 30% of 48 million conversions remains at about 1% of the Android population switching to the iPhone with little data on how many iPhone users switched the Android.

    What I see is about 70 million iPhones this Q1 versus 74.5 million last year. We are not that far apart despite my bearish and your bullish thesis. Perhaps the twain shall meet.
    Nov 12, 2015. 08:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Q1 2016 Could Be A Harbinger Of Softer Days Ahead [View article]
    @DPSS - I am guessing you are not a math major. The CIRP data show as many iOS users switching to Android as Android users switching to iOS within reasonable tolerances. But there are 4 times as many Android users so the percentage of users jumping ship is a lot less in the Android community and Apple is not making inroads into Android territory. That is obvious, of course, when you see that the percentage of smartphones running Android continues to rise while the percentage of smartphones based on iOS continues to fall (

    If any material percentage of Android users switched to iPhone sales of iPhones would soar. A 15% switch rate would see 240 million Android users jump on the iPhone bandwagon in one year, increasing the iPhone installed base by half. By contrast, a 15% jump from iOS to Android would add 75 million Android users to a base of 1,600 million, or about 4-5% growth.

    Growth in global smartphone demand has simply masked the weakness of Apple's unit sales. As that growth matures, the obvious will become all too obvious and you and your fellow Apple fans will see some pressure on your favorite stock, I would think.
    Nov 11, 2015. 10:39 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Priv Is Off To An Encouraging Start [View article]
    @KIA Investment Research - apparently you would, with less opportunity to make these insightful comments.
    Nov 11, 2015. 07:20 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Q1 2016 Could Be A Harbinger Of Softer Days Ahead [View article]
    @djstocks - 13 million Android users switching to iPhone in a quarter is a meaningless when a larger number of iPhone users switched to Android and those leaving Android are less than 1% of the installed base. You might review your own "analytical issues".
    Nov 11, 2015. 06:54 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Qualcomm: Is There Life After Samsung? [View article]
    @Mark Hibben - good article although a bit to Apple-centric. Qualcomm's problems are Samsung; Mediatek; and, Intel not only for chips but also for communications IP. It is only a matter of time.

    With respect, Apple depends on ARM for basic technology and Qualcomm (and ultimately others) for radios and has no defensible position in semiconductors despite its annual upgrade of its SOC. Without basic technology and without its own fab capability, it will see Samsung edge away over time and will have to scramble for capacity for its home-grown designs.

    At some point, ARM may decide to take advantage of its near monopoly in non-x86 technology to raise prices and Apple will bear the brunt of that shift, should it happen.

    Putting pretty ribbons on third party technology does not make Apple a tech giant. There is not much unique about an iPhone except its cult-like following among Apple fans. Apple's success is marketing, not technology. That makes it vulnerable in my opinion.
    Nov 5, 2015. 04:55 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Microsoft Trumped Apple And Why It Will Continue To Do So [View article]
    Lumia 950XL connects wirelessly.
    Oct 29, 2015. 04:17 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings: Record Breaking Quarter, Anemic Guidance [View article]
    @Mark Hibben - great article with realistic assessment of the current outlook. Thanks for writing.
    Oct 28, 2015. 11:13 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil Supplies Are Enormous [View article]
    @Andrew Hecht - it is hard to see how inventories are relevant given the U.S. is a massive importer. If inventories are rising it suggests buyers see future prices high enough to warrant storage. Buyers can adjust inventories downward quite quickly by simply importing less. With imports at 9 million barrels a day or more, the only conclusion from historically high inventories is a bet that prices will rise. October sees many refineries out for maintenance making it a relatively poor reference point for direction in any event.
    Oct 26, 2015. 09:58 AM | 32 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Valeant Pharmaceuticals Really An Enron Fraud? - Thoughts From An Ex-Drug Chemist [View article]
    @Chris Damas - super article. The best trades are those suffering collateral damage.
    Oct 22, 2015. 12:58 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bet On Priv To Help Turn BlackBerry Around [View article]
    @bwsf - both of us?
    Oct 22, 2015. 12:21 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Tesla Quality Issues Should Concern Investors [View article]
    @Immigrant Financial - I like Tesla but it has some near term threats. I like Suncor today since oil is in the basement.
    Oct 21, 2015. 06:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment