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Michael Blair

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  • I'm Already Looking At Apple's Q1 FY15 Earnings Report [View article]
    @Abba's Aces - great article. Q1 is in the bag for Apple even if sales are slow since they will fill that gap by building inventory by another week which adds about 3 million units or $2 billion to sales on iPhones alone. An extra week of all products in channel adds about $3.6 billion to sales all of which will be recognized in Q1. Apple certainly has the wind at its back right now.
    Oct 21 10:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: The Growth Strategy [View article]
    @Russ Fischer - You have been on the story for about 2 years now and those who listened have made bundles. As computers get smaller and smaller and users demand more and more power from them Intel will move ahead of the industry as the logical choice. It is only two or three years away.
    Oct 20 02:43 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Loyalty Boosts Apple In iPhone 6 Debut [View article]
    @Doug Young - great article. So valuable to get information from someone on the scene. Thanks.
    Oct 20 12:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Apple Bear's Wonderful Misadventure Analyzing Apple's Prospects [View article]
    @Chuck Jones - a great article Chuck. Thanks for taking time to help readers get a better understanding of my articles including those points on which we agree, which seem to be quite a few. In particular, we agree on the following:

    1. Apple's "sales" are in fact "shipments" which may or may not be sales to end users. Reporting "sales" of 10 million over a weekend when you can include whatever you shipped to carriers is shooting ducks in a barrel and does not reflect end user demand. As it turns out, I agree with you that end user demand is high for the iPhone 6.

    2. Growth from a $600 billion market capitalization is going to be difficult.

    We can have different views on the strengths and weaknesses of the competition. One thing is for certain - they are not going to roll over and concede defeat just because Apple introduced the same device with a larger screen.

    We will see if the new iPhones are have enough staying power to reverse the relentless decline in Apple market share which, once the market stops growing, could be a major headache for Apple.

    Good luck with your investments.
    Oct 20 10:57 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is China's Lenovo Group Making A Bid For BlackBerry? [View article]
    @Shock Exchange - a partnership with Lenovo is more likely in my view. A takeover has a lot of regulatory involvement while a partnership could make a lot of sense.
    Oct 20 06:29 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Penn West Survive The Free Fall In Oil Prices? I Think So [View article]
    @Uncle Pie - an entry level accounting course might be valuable. Shareholders' equity already has liabilities deducted. And, the carrying value of resource properties is a measure of what they cost to find, not what they are worth. If they were worth only what they cost to find no one would drill.
    Oct 19 03:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel And Microsoft Relatively Cheap On EV/EBITDA Basis [View article]
    @Keubiko - I agree with the general comment. Intel fabs are at about 50% of capacity so I am not sure it has to keep building them. It does have to invest in process advancements however.
    Oct 19 02:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel And Microsoft Relatively Cheap On EV/EBITDA Basis [View article]
    @Praveen Chawla - it is a useful measure, thanks. For companies whose capital expenditures are "lumpy" the "free cash flow" measure needs adjustment and reliable measures of so-called "free cash flow" are relatively complex in my view. Mandatory payments of principal; capital leases versus capital expenditures; deferred taxes; and, a host of other accounting issues make the "free cash flow" metric difficult to forecast.

    Having said that, it is nonetheless very useful.

    Oct 19 02:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Q4 Will Show Just How Stagnant Apple Earnings Really Are [View article]
    @docnaka - your estimates may be much better than mine. Let's compare notes after the release Monday. I agree Q1 will be strong.
    Oct 19 12:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel And Microsoft Relatively Cheap On EV/EBITDA Basis [View article]
    @Lambretta Mike - I am not trying to persuade investors to do anything, let alone dump any stock. I am just writing about what I see as the trends and the relative values. Thanks for the links. The CAD on the iPad Air is impressive.
    Oct 19 09:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Gordon Dividend Growth Model Points To Relative Strength For Intel And Microsoft [View article]
    @eenk - the math suggests Apple is priced for 8% growth more or less.
    Oct 19 09:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Gordon Dividend Growth Model Points To Relative Strength For Intel And Microsoft [View article]
    @Strategic Investor - absolutely correct, thanks. But relative value analysis is still useful and the Gordon model does a reasonable job of helping differentiate between stocks, as do other approaches. Your point is a strong one that everyone should pay attention to - that is, when the growth tapers off (like it has for Apple in the past 2 years) the value is very vulnerable to a major readjustment.
    Oct 18 10:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Wrap Up Some Profits In Apple? [View article]
    @Abba's Aces - history has shown that a lack of diversification is often fatal to investors, even those who have the right names in their portfolio. The discipline to keep a portfolio balanced is a hard one to follow - it requires the courage to take losses and the common sense to take profits and pay taxes when the portfolio gets out of balance. If you are concentrated, you do well only if you are right all of the time. While there are no obvious land mines facing Apple, there are risks. Ireland is about to close the major tax loophole Apple and others use to avoid billions in tax abroad; China's economy seems to be slowing down as is Europe; competitors are growing in most smartphone markets; and, most of the exciting new Apple products are in the market now.

    Whatever you do, I hope it works out well for you.
    Oct 18 10:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pengrowth Energy - High Risk With A Lot Of Potential For Fearless Investors [View article]
    @netterho - I have no idea. The Ford contract ends in December I believe and following that the company will either acquire some new business or be wound up. There is a terrific management team in Automodular so it will be a shame if it is wound up but investors should get $2.00 to $2.50 on a wind up so not that bad for a stock which hit $0.10 in the 2008 downturn. I have been out of the company and out of its stock for a couple of years now and don't really follow it closely.
    Oct 18 10:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Gordon Dividend Growth Model Points To Relative Strength For Intel And Microsoft [View article]
    @Yesterday's_news - yours is a particularly weak criticism of Android. There is nothing cheap about LG 3; Samsung Note 4; Sony Experia; HTC One M8; and, a pile of other premium Android phones. Collectively, the high end Androids still outnumber iOS in the premium market and continue to take share. Google has a well diversified portfolio of income streams. Intel and Microsoft are not threatened. I agree BlackBerry is a blatant speculation and may not end well for me, but I like what John Chen is doing.
    Oct 18 03:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment