Seeking Alpha

Michael Blair

View as an RSS Feed
View Michael Blair's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Time To Play Benioff Buzzword Bingo! [View instapost]
    @Illuminati Investments - absolutely brilliant and terrific fun or party game. I love it. Well done!
    Aug 18 09:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft Partnership Is Likely To Give A Headache [View article]
    @Mitch Zeitz - my take is that Microsoft makes its software work well with making it easy for users to also use the Microsoft suite of other products. That is the "embrace" part. Then Microsoft extends the capability of its own Suite to echo the better parts of's offering; adds more Cloud support; more storage; better interface with Office, Azure, etc. and soon it just makes more sense to Dynamics CRM rather than That is the extend part.
    Aug 17 10:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ultra Cheap Mobile Phones Will Upset The Industry Apple Cart [View article]
    @Gmarini - only to you, because your special. I do believe what I write. Responding to thoughtless comments is not that valuable a proposition. But you deep insights . . . well they are worthy of a few words. Thanks for adding your views.
    Aug 16 01:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Letting Xiaomi Grow Rich [View article]
    @Alcaraz Research - great article. I think the lure of attractively priced high functioning phones will take their toll in any event. The market for $600 plus phones is quite limited in developing markets. Apple may well opt to enter the mid-priced range and in my view that is its best option to remain relevant.
    Aug 15 04:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China Will Drive Apple's Growth This Quarter [View article]
    @Bob Ciura - Kantar reported that Apple's market share in China fell from 17.9% in March to 12.8% in June. Unless that trend reverses with the new devices, China will no be of much value to Apple's growth.
    Aug 13 03:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Won't Build A Cheap iPhone... And Why It Should [View article]
    @techy46 - right on the money.
    Aug 12 02:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Q3 Risks Are To The Downside [View article]
    @Bradmeister - I am by no means embarrassed. The loss is about $200,000 which is a fraction of the gains I have made on Microsoft and Intel. As always, I appreciate just how concerned you are about my well being.
    Aug 8 09:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nearly $2 Billion In The Hole, Microsoft Continues To Dive Deeper Into Tablets [View article]
    @RDPFSGMobile - Best critique yet and makes a really good point. The Surface is still not a great "touch" device but it is a pretty solid keyboard and mouse device with some "touch" capability. The iPad is a great "touch" device for viewing content and minor work but lacks the processing power to do serious work. The Surface will gain traction only when Microsoft advances the software to where it is at least on part with iOS for a touch device. The Office version for the iPad shows that Microsoft can do this well, and in my view it is only a matter of time.
    Aug 8 09:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Bearish Case Keeps Me Bullish For Now [View article]
    @StoneFoxCapital - great article. The high margins do suggest Apple can sell iPhone 4S at a profit but the margin guidance suggests to me the Q3 margin was accounting based rather than a reflection of costs. If the margins were high on the 4S the rates would stay high through Q4 which is not what Apple is guiding towards.

    If they can earn 40% on iPhone 4S at $349 in developing markets it could be a big win for Apple.
    Jul 31 10:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Firm Natural Gas Prices And A Lower Canadian Dollar Make Penn West A Good Bet [View article]
    @Chris Damas - I think it is cheap. I am buying barrels, cubic feet and new management. The mismanagement creates opportunity if one believes it is in the past. But, you make a great point. Buy Bonterra and sleep well at night.
    Jul 30 10:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Firm Natural Gas Prices And A Lower Canadian Dollar Make Penn West A Good Bet [View article]

    Hard to see how poor reporting has damaged any reservoirs. Possible that evidence of fraud may appear but that would lead to recoveries.

    I am buying more.

    Jul 30 01:48 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quantifying iPhone 6's Potential Cannibalization Of iPad, It Is Not Pretty [View article]
    @Shock Exchange - Solid analysis. Most buyers in Asia are unlikely to want both an iPhablet and an iPhone. The cannibalization effect is a real issue. I think the iPad will be squeezed between better Macbooks and the iPhone and become a small category.

    Demand for the iPhone 6 in developed markets will be strong and the fourth quarter should be a good one, so I would wait to short into the Christmas quarter when expectations will be enormous.
    Jul 23 02:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings: Ecosystem Contraction Playing Out; Regulatory Risk Looms In China [View article]
    @WestEnd511 - great article with solid fact base. Don't mind the detractors - they mean well but lack the ability to both face facts and see ahead. The low ASP without price drops for the iPhone 5S suggest the volumes of low priced iPhone 4S are a growing proportion of sales and as emerging markets represent the growth the decline in ASP is virtually inescapable. The Apple bulls will be able to watch the chart turn South from a larger screen by Christmas with the clarity of a retina display made of Sapphire.
    Jul 23 08:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Q3 Risks Are To The Downside [View article]
    @Bradmeister - I projected $19.4 billion iPhone revenue and it came in at $19.7 billion. 35.2 million iPhones with ASP of $561 implies fewer iPhone 5S and more iPhone 4S and 5C or the numbers don't add. The margin increase indicates that inventory mix shifted to iPhone 5S from iPhone 4s propping up iPhone 5S sales which must be slumping even more than I estimated. iPad unit sales barely beat my 13 million projection. Total year to date revenue was up 5% year over year and net income 8%. A decent quarter but this is not a growth story any more.

    Reported sales in China are inconsistent with market share data suggesting that the inventory in China is building since Apple records revenue when shipped to carriers and not when users actually buy the devices but market share estimates are based on user data. My take is that Apple made the low end of guidance by reducing channel inventory of iPhone 4S through clear out sales and replacing it with shipments of iPhone 5S to China carriers. If so, it is cute trick but one that it hard to repeat indefinitely.
    Jul 23 07:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The IBM-Apple Agreement Could Fail [View article]
    @Gonzalo Carrasco - great article. Enterprise does not want a solution that applies to 15 % of users like iOS nor one full of security issues. If Apple and IBM use their considerable resources to develop a device agnostic solution for enterprise that embraces but does not compel users to select iOS or OS X devices, it could be a big win. Otherwise it is not likely to go anywhere, in my view.
    Jul 22 11:39 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment