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Michael Blair  

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  • Micron: Memory, Oligopolies And Valuation [View article]
    @Russ Fischer - it is hard to operate profitably lagging by a full node. Worse, Samsung seems to be advancing its process technology more quickly, at least that is what I take from its 14nm Exynos AP in the S6 - a surprise to most observers who expected the S6 to have a Qualcomm 8** chip. Maybe both Intel and Micron have something to fear from Samsung?
    Mar 31, 2015. 06:15 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Look For A Breakeven Fourth Quarter [View article]
    @sfinvestor - The 300,000 units of BB10 devices not recognized comprises most of the difference, increasing the weighting of BB7 units recognized quite materially.
    Mar 27, 2015. 07:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry's Chen: Guidance Increasingly At Odds With Reality [View article]
    @Mark Hibben - I presume you didn't write your article on your Passport.
    Mar 27, 2015. 12:51 PM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Ugly Truth About Netflix [View article]
    @David Trainer - super article, right on the money.
    Mar 27, 2015. 11:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport-McMoRan: Finally Interesting After Positive Stock Reaction [View article]
    @Stone Fox Capital - there is a lot of money to be made playing the metals cycle through FCX, which is a world class miner. Today may be early but not too early to start accumulating. Metals are late cycle and I expect metal prices to firm as the economic expansion runs its course. FCX will be a big winner if the price of copper adds $1 which is well within the bounds of reason. I am long FCX
    Mar 26, 2015. 03:46 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil: The Bottom Is In And It Is Time To Add Stocks [View article]
    @David Greene - oil prices at $30 might do it, not that it is likely.
    Mar 26, 2015. 03:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Debunking The Recent Cowen Survey [View article]
    @bjnflicks - hardly millions. The data are clear that most iPhones are replacements and last quarter my estimate that no more than 12 million iPhones were bought by former Android users is about right, offset somewhat by the iOS loss of about 2 million users who switched to other platforms. Apple added only 59 million to its installed base last year while Android added several hundred million users.
    Mar 25, 2015. 10:06 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Debunking The Recent Cowen Survey [View article]
    @Charleyeycee - thanks for the post. When I buy puts with long duration on what I see as an overvalued stock I hold them until they expire worthless, then buy more at a cheaper price and higher strike. If the thesis is perpetually wrong, I lose on they holdings and hopefully make it up on others. But if the thesis proves right over time, the gain on the sharp fall more than offsets the losses on the climb.
    Mar 25, 2015. 10:03 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Debunking The Recent Cowen Survey [View article]
    @pk de cville - comment would be worthwhile if accurate. The fact is that iPhones are only about 36% of smartphones over $400 with Android about 62%.
    Mar 25, 2015. 09:22 AM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Watch Has Implications For Big Data, IoT And Web 3.0 [View article]
    @Alex Cho - if Cartier had a battery operated watch (not a smart watch) and advertised that the battery would last 18 hours they would sell none of them. Most watch batteries last months or even years and it is annoying when they run down. So Apple Watch is not really going to be a watch. It is a wrist computer. There are plenty of other formats for computers with a lot more power and flexibility than a Watch which must be accompanied by another iOS product to have any function at all.

    I agree with you that Apple makes fine products. I find it hard to see why anyone other than true blue Apple fans would want one. It is kind of like Apple Pay - a lot of hype with less than one in six iPhone 6 users even trying it out according to BI.
    Mar 24, 2015. 05:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Iamgold To Sell Diamond Royalty To Sandstorm: Is It A Good Deal? [View article]
    @Hard Asset Investments - great article. I think Sandstorm got the better deal nonetheless. Streaming assets at only 7 x cash flow are a steal with interest rates at today's levels. Having said that, IamGOLD is better served by concentrating its efforts on gold mining. I would not be surprised to see IamGOLD take a run at a competitor sometime soon - B2Gold would be a good buy since it is relatively lower cost; has a clean balance sheet; and, is increasing its production. I am long both IAG and B2Gold.
    Mar 24, 2015. 12:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Even The Bulls Are Giving Up On Hardware [View article]
    @Mark Hibben - the Geekbench data are interesting but a sideline. Compare the Samsung S6 with its Exynos processor to the iPhone 6 and you would conclude the iPhone 6 was doomed since the Exynos Geekbench score outpaces the A8 by about as much as the iPhone 6 outpaces the Passport. The fact is that all these devices are plenty fast and anyone who has used a BlackBerry device will tell you that its multitasking capabilities make its competitors look like antiques.

    But hardware is not the future for BBRY, on that we agree. There are enough BlackBerry users who prefer the device for its keyboard and security that I don't think BlackBerry will leave hardware any time soon, but profits will come from its excellent software and that is the future for the company.
    Mar 24, 2015. 10:41 AM | 27 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whiting Should Get 'While The Getting's Good' [View article]
    @Shock Exchange - a treasury issue makes more sense than selling assets at distressed prices. A $1 billion issue would cause relatively little dilution and the stock can be bought on the sell off.
    Mar 24, 2015. 09:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Inside The World's Possibly Most Powerful Android Phone [View article]
    @Alcaraz Research - great article. The Atom is powerful and ASUS is taking full advantage. I disagree with your conclusion it is faster the any processor from Samsung - the Exynox in the S6 has an Antutu score of 61,000, about 20% above the Intel chip.
    Mar 18, 2015. 07:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Uniquely Well Positioned For The Future Of TV [View article]
    @Mark Hibben - is Apple uniquely positioned both to develop a car and to enter the TV industry? Or is Apple uniquely positioned to enter every industry occupied by every competitor on earth just because it is Apple? The latter is the sense I get from your articles.

    I guess the question for investors is whether Apple is really a threat to Netflix, HBO, Time Warner, Comcast and all the broadcasters as well. One wonders why they have had any success at all if an assembler of devices and distributor of apps and iTunes is uniquely positioned to threaten them.
    Mar 18, 2015. 06:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment