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Michael Blair

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  • Apple: What Do The Bears Say Now? [View article]
    @Bill Maurer - good article Bill. This bear may have to hibernate in the spring rather than the winter. It was an impressive iPhone quarter and the lack of channel inventory build shows the devices were sold through to end users. The strength seems concentrated in Japan and Greater China with the rest of the world pretty flat or in the case of Asia ex China and Japan in decline. The CHL and DoCoMo deals are having an impact.
    Apr 24 06:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Premium Smartphones Are Not iPhones [View article]
    @rossimi - I limited my risk by selling under the market puts before the release but not a complete hedge. I expect I will be down $25,000 or so. I will buy back those puts and write further out puts to mitigate the damage. Thanks for the comment.
    Apr 24 06:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Q2 Results Are Likely To Disappoint [View article]
    @Bobcat9 - I recall agreeing with Misek that 17 million added iPhones from the China Mobile deal was a reasonable guess. The quarter suggests it could be higher.

    Bret's beer looks safer today but not certain. It will be my pleasure to buy it if he wins the bet.
    Apr 24 12:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Premium Smartphones Are Not iPhones [View article]
    @raghunathan78 - new products could make quite a difference. The stock split, dividend increase and buyback don't create value but they do generate excitement and more retail investors will be able to afford the stock than before. I think most companies are bullish on their future product roadmap before the product is launched - even Thorstein Heins thought the new BlackBerries would sell tens of millions. We will see in due course.
    Apr 24 12:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Premium Smartphones Are Not iPhones [View article]
    @henryslaw - definitely wrong on this quarter. Very impressive iPhone sales numbers and most to end users. Thanks for the comment.
    Apr 23 10:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Days You Have The Wind At Your Back [View instapost]
    @Bill Maurer - have you figured out why ASPs for iPhone declined with what must have been a very rich mix of iPhone 5S sales? It seems the strong sales were in Japan and greater China with the rest of Asia in decline and developed markets fairly flat. But only 100,000 units added to channel inventory so sales to end users up impressively.
    Apr 23 10:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Competitors Are Like Piranhas Chewing Up Apple [View article]
    @Samuel Liu - great iPhone sales numbers but outside of Greater China and Japan sales are flat or declining. I still think the bloom is coming off the rose but I was impressed with how many iPhones Apple sold (and very few were channel fillers, pretty well all went to end users) in the quarter. With such a rich mix of iPhone 5S why did ASP's decline?
    Apr 23 10:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Premium Smartphones Are Not iPhones [View article]
    @raghunathan78 - the numbers were impressive. But gone are the days when growth meant a lot more than 5% year over year in revenues and 3% in net income. It is fun writing bear articles on Apple - I get such insightful comments from SA readers.
    Apr 23 10:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Q2 Results Are Likely To Disappoint [View article]
    @Bradmeister - I agree there is no shame in taking your losses and moving on. I do it regularly.
    Apr 23 08:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Premium Smartphones Are Not iPhones [View article]
    @Diaboliquegaun - As the knight in Monty Python said "It is just a flesh wound". Nice to hear you hang out with A-listers and millionaires. So do I, but I see fewer iPhones than you do.
    Apr 23 08:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Premium Smartphones Are Not iPhones [View article]
    @Gil Depierro - short 1,100 shares. Definitely wrong today.
    Apr 23 08:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Q2 Results Are Likely To Disappoint [View article]
    @lakeartmesia2 - the biggest miss was Japan up 26% year over year. Greater China was up 13% but I expect to learn it was channel fill at CHL since the CHL CEO's remarks were inconsistent with major iPhone unit sales. America's were up 2% year over year and Europe 4% which was consistent with my views, and in the rest of Asia ex China and Japan sales were down 17% year over year.

    I remain short. Guidance for Q3 was consistent with my projections and I will be looking at channel inventories to see whether they grew or declined. If they declined I would be more bullish. If they grew larger then the actual sales to end users may have been closer to my forecast.
    Apr 23 07:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Are Cheaper Alternatives To The Cheapest iPhone. [View instapost]
    @MattZN2 - I pay Wind $40 a month for unlimited everything.

    Apple's U.S. growth year over year was 2% and in Europe it was 4%. The developed markets are pretty well done with growth. Its big move up was in Japan up 26% and channel fill in China up 13%. You can only fill the channel once, I would hope.

    In the rest of Asia sales were down 17% year over year. The rest of Asia is where growth is expected.
    Apr 23 07:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Days You Have The Wind At Your Back [View instapost]
    @Zippero - all shareholders received their dividends. And, yes, it did enrich me. It will take a lot more than a short position on 1,000 Apple shares to lose me the dividends I received.

    The stock dropped 50% because we paid out its earnings as dividends and spun off a subsidiary. Shareholders did just fine. I was the largest of them and have sold all my stock now.

    Automodular's excellent workforce would say well done.

    Too bad you didn't own any.
    Apr 23 07:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Q2 Results Are Likely To Disappoint [View article]
    @Bradmeister - I gave a complete forecast for the quarter and you are right, I did get the iPhone numbers wrong by a country mile.
    Apr 23 06:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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