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Michael Bradley

 
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  • Activision Blizzard: Why Earnings Will Decline [View article]
    I'm glad to see you've made "new use" of your old ATVI articles Mathias (copy/paste is really having a renaissance on this site). Any opinions on the Tencent agreement?
    Feb 4 04:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple iPhone 5: What Are The Implications From AT&T And Verizon? [View article]
    Sleepless nights and stomach ulcers for another 24hrs...
    Jan 22 07:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing Apple's Past To Gain A Better Perception On Its Future [View article]
    As always D.M., your thoughts are appreciated. I believe you addressed many of my concerns beautifully, and I thank you.
    Jan 19 10:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing Apple's Past To Gain A Better Perception On Its Future [View article]
    But that is TTM Wiley. What makes sustained earnings (or earnings growth) for Apple such a sure thing (other than flawed "they grew last time" logic)? I'm not trying to be rude, but isn't there a lot playing against this company (Death of a lead innovator, a narrowing economic moat, evolving competition, decreased component orders for key products, lower margins on new phones demanding higher sales volumes, a cloudy forecast for the release of expected products[like Apple TV], and unknown consequences when such products are finally released[How do we know that a competitor won't release something better? Or how can we be assured of this Apple TV's success upon release])? I REALLY want to be bullish here, but there are questions nobody seems to be answering. Investors have dumped this stock from $700 to $500 per share, and yet nobody here has anything to say against it. That seems odd to me. Either way (And as always) I thank everyone for their responses, and only ask that you think before you trade. Best of luck!
    Jan 18 06:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing Apple's Past To Gain A Better Perception On Its Future [View article]
    @Bart_sst: No, I won't give that to you, Michael. And who exactly is this "we" you speak of?

    By the way, "double book" is more like $400, not $250. The market is *already* valuing Apple like it has plummeted, crashed, and imploded

    * Okay Bart, I concede. Apple didn't disappoint investors for the past two quarters (my source was the Cnbc.com earnings center, but I'm sure you have better information). Further, I admit to foolishly thinking that $500 (Apple's 4x book trading price as per Seeking Alpha) divided by two was $250. You sir, are obviously the intellectual giant in the room; and I apologize for incurring your wrath.
    Jan 18 03:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing Apple's Past To Gain A Better Perception On Its Future [View article]
    It isn't. The company is $125 at book, $250 at a twice book premium. Your earnings are based upon the assumption of growth (about 9.5% in 2013), and given Apple's failure to make LOWER numbers in 2012 I don't believe it's a gospel assumption to make. Cash per share is $11.42 (Seeking Alpha Data), and twice that would be $22.84 ($250 would be approximately 22x cash per share). I'm sorry though, I thought ALL of that was self-explanatory. Could someone please answer my previous question?
    Jan 18 10:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing Apple's Past To Gain A Better Perception On Its Future [View article]
    *Honest question* Given Apple's failure to meet our earnings expectations this past year, why do we assume they will do better (with a raised bar) in the coming year? And should they fail to meet our raised expectations, why wouldn't the stock plummet/crash/implode? If Apple became a number two company tomorrow, why wouldn't it trade around double book for $250 (or less)? Please explain...
    Jan 18 08:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zynga: 10 Reasons To Sow While Others Harvest [View article]
    "Activision (ATVI) which is 6.5x time Zynga's value, spends the same amount in R&D."

    *(Only to be fair though) Activision will generate Zynga's market cap in revenues this quarter, and has clearly shown the value of each R&D dollar spent. Activision's P/B is essentially identical to the obscure Zynga here, and (to their credit) they are the largest and most successful gaming company in the world. Given that (combined with Zynga's hyper bearish Starmine Score of 1.8 [on a scale of 1-10], completely negative net margins, operating margins, and ROE. A forward P/E [Cnbc.com's earnings center] of -124x earnings, and a product model which you admit is having difficulty monetizing), what would you pay for Zynga? And why haven't you bought any?

    Nice article BTW,
    -Michael
    Jan 15 09:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Activision's 'World Of Warcraft' - A Theoretical Exercise [View article]
    Again Roderick, fantastic analysis! The possibility of WoW becoming a multigame portal escaped me, and yet it follows so logically from the game's development! That very well may be a catalyst going forward, and provides a FEAST of possibilities to work out. Thanks for the commentary!
    Jan 14 12:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Activision's 'World Of Warcraft' - A Theoretical Exercise [View article]
    *I would suggest you post general company commentary (especially regarding ATVI's status as a value/growth stock) to my article covering the company at large. But since you decided to grace this page with your analysis of the company, I will return the favor and grace you with mine.

    Most P/E ratios published for Activision Blizzard were not updated via positive earnings surprises, Cnbc.com's earnings center will give you are current P/E of 10.9 TTM (11.1 TTM after the rise today if you do the math yourself) This P/E will drop to roughly 10.3 (at $11.50 per share) if Q4 estimates are simply MET. Compare these sector to sector if you like (we can go company to company too), 13.7 for the toys industry, 19.7 for consumer goods, 19.4 for the S&P 500. Your Microsoft? Is trading at a P/E of 10.3 TTM on the earnings center (Better than you thought! You should buy some!) vs. an industry average of 25.3 TTM for the software industry, or 21.6 for the technology sector. ATVI is lower than every sector mentioned.

    But let's get back to ATVI (The company which shot up 5.5% today). It trades at the aforementioned P/E vs EA's 303 times earnings, and Konami's 13.3. If you would like to compare further we can, but these are the big names (and they aren't even vaguely the successes that ATVI is presently). Now we can asses book values, free cash flows, management teams and existing product lines (read "Success on Sale: Activision Blizzard". I don't know who wrote it, but they are fricking brilliant! ). And for yield? Unless you want to buy "Tabcorp holdings", ATVI is holding the highest (and one of the only) dividends in the sector (Morningstar.com peer comparison). I might also note that this dividend has consistently risen since its inception, but who knows? Perhaps a company in a DOWN SECTOR beating sales records and throwing excess cash at investors is a sign of weakness.

    And only for the record, I wouldn't cite a gaming company spending money on R&D as a weakness (especially when that company has current assets almost double its total liabilities and debts, and has shown the fruits of its R&D labor with every title it churns out [How much did EA spend on SWTOR?]). Where else should their money be put? Share buy backs? Bigger dividends? Investors love that stuff, but it does nothing to improve the company.

    Either way, best of luck investing...
    Jan 11 06:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Activision's 'World Of Warcraft' - A Theoretical Exercise [View article]
    My own beliefs are in line with Roderick and Blackdemon. If the franchise steps up its rate of content generation, it will be fine for a very long time. My only fear, is that the facilities for this rate of generation may not yet exist (Blizzard may have to expand its staff dramatically). WoW needs to grow and change at a pace exceeding the industry around it to thrive, but I think this challenge is well placed in the hands of Blizzard's team. People will always want an escape, and they will always want a taste of a world not their own. If Blizzard continues to make Azeroth more enticing than Earth, the franchise will flourish.

    Hleeper, thanks for the kind words. I first began covering this company BECAUSE I was a consumer of its products. If that is where your studies concerning Activision Blizzard begin, I would say you are well ahead of the markets. Not many investors consume these products, and far fewer understand them (part of the reason ATVI trades so strangely). This is why I write about the company, it's an attempt to provide something lacking.

    I purchased most of my shares at $10.50 (While the rest of the market was dumping), but I've made purchases of the company at various points between $10.50-$11.50 per share. I think now is a good time, but I'm not a psychic. With a lower revenue year and slimmer product release schedule ahead, you very well may be able to buy more cheaply in the future. If you are buying to hold long term (with price targets of $18+ dollars per share), worrying about tomorrow's fluctuations (at these price levels) seems a bit silly to me. I hope I was helpful.
    Jan 11 09:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Activision's 'World Of Warcraft' - A Theoretical Exercise [View article]
    Beautifully said. Analysis like yours is EXACTLY why I wrote this article. Thanks for making my efforts feel worthwhile.
    Jan 10 07:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Activision's 'World Of Warcraft' - A Theoretical Exercise [View article]
    Any and all theories pertaining to the franchise are welcome here. I only ask that each new model be clearly explained. Thanks again!
    Jan 10 05:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Electronic Arts: The Turnaround Is At Hand For This Fallen Angel - Buy On Headline Weakness [View article]
    A wonderful reply. Thanks!
    Jan 9 05:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Success On Sale: Activision Blizzard [View article]
    *Michael laughs* Tell me how you REALLY feel! While undoubtedly ATVI will generate lower revenues this year (last year was full of big releases), I believe they will remain very profitable throughout. Could you point me in the direction of something documenting these issues? I haven't heard anything like that. Thanks for making me your only comment on SA!
    Jan 9 05:21 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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