Seeking Alpha
  • Michael Bryant
    Buy Great Northern Iron Ore Properties (GNI) for a dividend. Yields over 14%. http://yhoo.it/ueYcTm=
    12/20/11
    Reply (57)
    • Thomas Cal: Michael: What is your estimate of GNI's intrinsic value? Please explain. http://seekingalpha.com/a/6m3x
      2/1/12
    • Michael Bryant: One, China is not having a hard landing. Two, Brazil will likely need steel in the coming years due to the Olympics and World Cup.
      2/1/12
    • Michael Bryant: And lastly, value doesn't vaporize when the trust dissolves. It is distributed to the trust investors.
      2/1/12
    • Michael Bryant: Fair value: $140/share.
      2/1/12
    • Thomas Cal: Share your estimates for: a. all dividend payments from today through 2016 b. what investors receive upon divestiture of the trust
      2/2/12
    • Thomas Cal: Michael: Have you read this? Is there anything factually incorrect in this article? http://seekingalpha.com/a/6m3x
      2/2/12
    • Michael Bryant: Yes, I read it. It is based on the assumption of a hard landing in China and slowdown in Brazil, which I don't think will happen.
      2/2/12
    • Michael Bryant: I'm still wondering where he got $8/share.
      2/2/12
    • Michael Bryant: Stock has gone up since the article, and as I said, which is wrong in the article, value will be distributed to investors at dissolution.
      2/2/12
    • Thomas Cal: Can you please share with us your estimate or guess regarding the amount that will be to shareholders at dissolution?
      2/3/12
    • Thomas Cal: Please also share the reasoning behind how you arrive at that estimate of dissolution value?
      2/3/12
    • Thomas Cal: http://bit.ly/w1kmEE
      2/3/12
    • Thomas Cal: "...using the financial statement as of 12/31/10, the net monies ... [result] in a final distribution of approximately ... $8.22 per share"
      2/3/12
    • Thomas Cal: FYI:http://bit.ly/wgsElh
      2/3/12
    • Michael Bryant: Assuming its dividend stays the at $23/year, $23 * 4 = $92, which is about what Citron came up with. Add $8.22 gives $100.22.
      2/3/12
    • Michael Bryant: But the dividend is growing. So the share price should be higher than this. Dividend went from $15 last year to $23 this year.
      2/3/12
    • Michael Bryant: That is an $8 dividend rise, so if that stays constant, it becomes $23 + $31 + $38 + ($46/2) + $8.22 = $123.22.
      2/3/12
    • Thomas Cal: How do you come up with the $23 figure for "this year"? Why do you expect dividends to rise?
      2/3/12
    • Thomas Cal: Facts: GNI's dividends were $12.25 in 2010 and $15 in 2011.
      2/3/12
    • Thomas Cal: GNI comments that "2012 ... is not expected to reach the historical record earnings achieved in 2011" http://bit.ly/zu78sT
      2/3/12
    • Michael Bryant: Um...dividends is said to be $23 for this year according to Yahoo Finance. http://yhoo.it/wEfYrs
      2/3/12
    • Thomas Cal: I'd rely on the text in the official press release, not on Yahoo Finance. Give GNI a call: 651-224-2385, from http://bit.ly/yyF6HD#.
      2/3/12
    • Thomas Cal: If it's on Yahoo Finance, it must be true!
      2/3/12
    • Thomas Cal: Do you know how Yahoo Finance "calculates" expected dividend?
      2/3/12
    • Thomas Cal: What do YOU based on the knowledge and facts available to you think the dividend will be?
      2/3/12
    • Michael Bryant: Okay, you linked Google Finance. I find Yahoo Finance more reliable. And the $23 in from MorningStar.com.
      2/3/12
    • Michael Bryant: But from your post that "dividends were $12.25 in 2010 and $15 in 2011," $23 seems high.
      2/3/12
    • Thomas Cal: GNI states "2012 ... is not expected to reach the historical record earnings achieved in 2011" http://bit.ly/zu78sT
      2/3/12
    • Thomas Cal: Let's say GNI is correct, and EPS in 2012 are down compared to 2011. Then what do you expect dividends in 2012 will be, compared to 2011?
      2/3/12
    • Thomas Cal: If you call GNI and ask, they will refer you to the above press release. http://bit.ly/zu78sT
      2/3/12
    • Thomas Cal: Are you ready to re-evaluate your price target and investment thesis? Or provide an argument and facts why I should re-evaluate my thesis?
      2/3/12
    • Michael Bryant: Dividend may end up at $14/share.
      2/3/12
    • Thomas Cal: Calculate the present value of reasonable estimates for all dividends and distributions (years 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2015 thru dissolution)
      2/3/12
    • Thomas Cal: What is your new price target?
      2/3/12
    • Thomas Cal: Michael: Given the cut in your estimated dividend for 2012 from $23 to $14, have you re-evaluated your price target and investment thesis?
      2/9/12
    • Thomas Cal: Michael: Do you think an individual investor that owns this stock and is not earning the ~minus 30% short rebate should hold this stock?
      2/9/12
    • Michael Bryant: If you can bring up the Criton article again, I might be able to calculate it. I still think it is a solid stock.
      2/9/12
    • Thomas Cal: "A Stock Only a Trading Robot Could Love" , Posted in Citron Reports by Stocklemon on the December 28th, 2010, http://bit.ly/wgsElh
      2/9/12
    • Thomas Cal: Hint: Estimate all dividends. Estimate final distribution. Estimate appropriate discount rate.
      2/9/12
    • Thomas Cal: Using discount rate, calculate present value of dividends and final distribution. Sum.
      2/9/12
    • Thomas Cal: Do you realize that the short rebate on GNI is ~ minus 30%?
      2/9/12
    • Michael Bryant: Sounds like they designed the shares so it won't be shorted, because then you will lose 30%.
      2/9/12
    • Night Heron: Last year's dividend was $15, not $23. Yahoo gets to $23 erroneously, by taking the most recent quarterly dividend and multiplying by 4.
      3/7/12
    • Michael Bryant: So they are raising their dividend, a good thing.
      3/7/12
    • Night Heron: GNI dividends are seasonal, with the highest dividend in winter. You can't get the annual dividend by multiplying the winter dividend by 4.
      3/7/12
    • Thomas Cal: Google Finance reports that GNI's Mar. 28 dividend is $2.25. This is flat with the year-ago dividend ...
      3/28/12
    • Thomas Cal: GNI will cease to be a going concern and all shares will be cancelled, on April 6, 2015. In my opinion, GNI is worth much less than $98.
      3/28/12
    • Thomas Cal: Owners of GNI should read the reports on this site and elsewhere, come up with a dispassionate and rational estimate of the stocks value,
      3/28/12
    • Thomas Cal: and in my opinion consider selling immediately, especially if they are not earning the short rebate of approximately 20%.
      3/28/12
    • Thomas Cal: It makes much more sense for anyone that owns this stick to also be earnings the short rebate,
      3/28/12
    • Thomas Cal: otherwise you are leaving approximate 20% per year on the table, or giving it away to your broker.
      3/28/12
    • Thomas Cal: Hedge funds and large asset managers typically are able to get paid the short rebate; individual investors typically do not earn the rebate.
      3/28/12
    • Simon Chang: Michael, Are you still bullish on GNI since it's yielding 18% now? Or have you changed your views?
      7/24/13
    • Michael Bryant: Wow, haven't followed $GNI in a while, but I would buy it solely for income.
      7/24/13
    • Simon Chang: Really? So you get 7 quarters of income of about $2.50 and the last payment of around $9 before you're left with nothing?
      7/24/13
    • Simon Chang: You'd try to buy and then trade out before the trust ends just for the income?
      7/24/13
    • Michael Bryant: Everything is a risk. I understand that $GNI is going to end, so I find better fish in the sea, like $CVRR.
      7/24/13