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Michael Cain

 
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  • EZCorp: 27% Trading Upside, 100% Long-Term Upside [View article]
    Why is the Book Value on Yahoo at $17.33 and you're projecting $5.50? Their calculation is what the liquidation of the company yields/share.
    Oct 8 09:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Against Portfolio Diversification [View article]
    I appreciate your response, and if there was a fool-proof method to out-pace the market everyone would be doing it.

    You can have your own opinion and we could argue or debate, but in the end it's what makes you comfortable.

    There's pros and cons to each strategy

    I did not intend to create a debate over investment strategies and philosophies, just voice one opinion of one individual. For that I offer my apologizes to anyone who was offended or irked.
    Feb 24 04:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Against Portfolio Diversification [View article]
    I think that most of you are misinterpreting this article.

    I wrote this as a guiding point of how fear of the past has driven our decisions into the future. We all have memories and, luckily, we can use them to write books, research notes, etc. Those we don't learn from the past are destined to repeat it.

    We all too often think that this next "thing" is different (the internet bubble, housing speculation, etc.) when everything is predictable to a reasonable basis, including our human fears.

    Ok, so I am not 90 years old and haven't "lived" through the great Depressions and recessions, but I know and studied each one. They all have the same common theme- fear.

    For some, you think that this "kid" is young, inexperienced and reckless. When all the while think about how reasonably predictable 10 years can be. Sure, there are going to be major pitfalls in the future, but human progress will still be intact.

    Get the fear out and sense in
    Feb 23 03:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Against Portfolio Diversification [View article]
    I can understand where you are all coming from with diversification. Tomorrow could bring hell, but the fact is that when you buy a security at ridiculously low prices with incredible management and products, it's hard to picture Armageddon.

    You're all right, though- It is a risk, but isn't everything? Refer back to my casino paragraph and decide for yourself which option you would take. Would you diversify your bets with minimal-average return, or set your bets on the one with not the best but the astronomical odds of winning? We only get one shot at this life, and when it's toward the end do you want to be living an average life giving your grandkids $25 checks for birthdays, sitting on 7% returns, all because you didn't take the small risk that was completely in your favor? Ok, I guess that was unnecessary and irrelevant.

    When I read a news-line for ARO that talked about the sure "end" of the company it made me wonder how much more the price could suffer before the management and product would rebound, while months later the investment community says, "Oh yea it wasn't as bad as we thought it would be."

    Diversify because that's what you were taught in business school, what the professionals are doing, and that's the "safe" option.

    Time and time again we are reminded of how simple this game is- and oh how quickly we forget the fundamentals when our emotions contract alzheimer's.
    Feb 23 02:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Against Portfolio Diversification [View article]
    You are absolutely right. I don't know if the U.S. is going to discontinue Medicare or if LHC Group is going to have more severe penalties for reimbursement fraud.

    My safety net, however, does not lie within diversification but with the management competence, price margin of safety, and what history has shown me. Technical stock indicators are not used when LHC Group management is trying to decide the best hospital to collaborate with in a joint venture- It's a business trying to make profit for its shareholders.

    I think it's more common sense than anything. We have so many different acronyms for every different valuation and ways to figure out where a stock price is moving. I think what many forget is that the market is made up of businesses and not charts or quotes.

    When a stock in an amazing company gets clobbered, it makes me wonder if it is rationale or just nerves. I bought Aeropostale back in the summer when it was trading in the $9 range. There was no rational explanation for why it was was priced that low other than the cotton price and the promotional war among teen retailers. If you think rationally about it, what were the chances that cotton stayed at the ridiculously record high prices because of droughts and floods that destroyed crops in Asia?

    I think the truth is that the market lives in the now and the crowd doesn't think past today. Those who think about tomorrow with a common-sense attitude and the ability to think and act like a business person will stand a much better chance than that MBA, CFA, whatever with his charts.

    Find the amazing companies with outstanding management that want nothing more than to build shareholder value, wait for the right price, wait for the right "pitch" and swing. That's how I garner 60%+ returns. Investing isn't the game of IQ's, it's the game of discipline- emotionally and mentally.

    I'm in my early twenties.
    Feb 23 12:35 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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