Seeking Alpha

Michael Cain's  Instablog

Michael Cain
Send Message
Investor. Equity Research is my passion. My major theme as an investor is focus investing. I'd like to engage and collaborate with other major investors who share the same passion for the markets as I do.
View Michael Cain's Instablogs on:
  • The Future Of Pawning

    It's on TV. It's embedded in the culture. It's a business model that's as old as the newspaper. The art of pawning is a beautiful thing. Can't get a loan from the bank? No intangible assets? Need $500? Have a gold watch? Auto title? 10 million people across the country in any given time are in constant need of fast cash and have no bank account to show for it. While the major financial institutions are quick to shove out loans to those they consider "safe loans", the people with nothing usually get just that in a loan.

    My buddy decided to apply for a $10k loan at Wells Fargo last year only to be denied on the spot. The problem? He had no student loans, just graduated college with a great job lined up making over $55k, and the only debt was a car payment of $311/month. He was denied on the spot because that was considered a risky loan due to the car payments. Since 90% of grads don't have the same circumstances as my friend and are living on some kind of student loan debt/credit card debt, where do you go for a $1k loan for buying furniture, TV, bed, etc to move into your apartment after college? You can't wait to accumulate savings through a once a month paycheck- unless you want to live in an empty apartment for a couple months. Enter pawn loans, fast cash solutions, and whatever version of a short-term loan that you can think of. More importantly, and more popularly, pawn loans from actual pawn stores are the fastest and most assuring way to avoid scam and hassle.

    Luckily, pawn shops have realized this immense need from the consumer and have taken the right steps. Take EZ Corp. (NASDAQ:EZPW) for example. EZ Corp. has placed themselves perfectly to continue their long-term growth trend. They've invested as much as possible in every successful short-term loan provider who have the potential to be superstars. What does EZ Corp have to do? Make sure they make the right choices. Wait until five years from now- their growth will triple- at least.

    There are two macro problems that are affecting the company's price right now. The obvious one is gold- something that I nor anyone else knows what will happen to its price over the next year. What I do know is that banks are destroying the economic value of their dollars all around the world. No central bank in Europe, US, China can say that they are not printing the green stuff like mad men. Let's keep it simple. The undeniable reason for gold's price increase over many decades is inflation- something that HAS to increase with Bernanke pressing on the printing pedal. Give it time and let the markets eventually correct themselves from this spike. It may not happen tomorrow or this year, but be sure of this- it will happen. Pawn operators know this and are positioning themselves and buying their own shares- something to take seriously if you cannot find value in your own portfolio.

    The second reason is less obvious. Consumer regulation has been scrutinizing that these loans have been leaving the customer in a debt trap. The fact is that the consumer needs the money and knows the consequences- it's the price of doing business and accumulating the risk. Consumers are not blindly going into these deals- it's on paper and are told repeatedly the fine print. It's not unethical- it's business. The even better part is that pawnshop operators don't even have to go into those markets that have strict regulations. The demand is so great and will always continue to grow so long as people have a determination to thrive and live a better life.

    Let's take a look at the fundamental analysis to see what we can expect for a ten year return if we invest in EZPW.

    Current Price- $21.30

    Current EPS 2013- $2.65
    EPS 2023 (10% growth/year)- $6.87

    Avg. P/E ratio- 12x
    2023 stock price- $82.44

    10 year compound annual return- 14.49%

    Not bad. This is the average case- meaning that if the company has a so-so performance, it will garner these returns. This could possibly be one of the top investments of the decade if it outdoes its initial guidance (there is substantial upside to the positive scenario).

    10 year compound annual return (EPS growth 15%)- 19.70%

    By the way, EZ Corp has grown its EPS on average 30%/year for the past ten years. These numbers are saying a lot more than EZ Corp's competitors like Cash America (NYSE:CSH) or First Cash Financial Services (NASDAQ:FCFS). Both have relatively high P/E ratios (15x and 19x) compared to EZPW with not as much historical growth nor future potential guidance on their part.

    Also, check out my instablog and articles from last year about the predictions I made- see if you can find any that didn't come true.

    Tags: EZPW
    Mar 13 11:56 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful And Fearful When Others Are Greedy

    There is an unbelievable amount of fear in the markets- Still! This has been going on for 5+ years. Constantly you read article headlines and the "experts" on the TV saying that the correction is coming. I guarantee that when fear, doom and gloom are all featured in the markets, the price for business will not fall. Remember every year when there was a problem (Euro Crisis, debt ceiling, whatever)? Each time, there was someone on CNBC screaming to take money out of stocks and put it in gold, bonds, whatever. Yet, where are we today?

    Every morning I look at the headlines and pray that it's all good news. It's the only way I know that the markets are finally ready to take a much needed break and fall a little. But that's not happening. Every time the market goes up, it's "a sell signal." You want to know when the correction will come? It comes when the "experts" come on TV in unison and all finally agree that this market is a buy.

    I personally want the market to drop- it's a healthy transition. I'm uncomfortable with the fact that we're on the track for eight straight gains on the DOW.

    Take heed to the blog title- it's how the titans play the game- it's a fun game.

    Mar 12 3:51 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Green Mountain: The Tsunami Aftermath

    How long can you go before considering buying in GMCR? Right now the market keeps posting new ways to avoid this stock after last week. As we all know, fear drives the market- The key is to look for panic extremes outlined by the Titan investor Jim Rogers.

    Ask yourself a question of whether or not you see Green Mountain thriving, surviving, or dying in the market five-ten years from now. It doesn't really matter how great of a price you buy into Green Mountain if the price keeps slowly and painfully declining until bankruptcy. It does matter if you buy when the company is at its most vulnerable and most likely to succeed.

    Think about it- People are addicted to coffee. It's not going away. Yes, Green Mountain will have a large chunk of their market growth taken out by Starbucks and anyone else who wants to make a k-cup this year. Investors were just naive enough to think that this growth stock was worth the astronomical amount last year. If there wasn't this huge increase in a short growth spurt and a lift off in the stock price, there wouldn't be a story here. The fact that the stock came crashing down is enough to make a compelling story and lure investors away from a company that has lost 75% of its value over some short months. Hey, if a company lost that much there must be something catastrophically wrong with it- wrong. This is not Enron. People need coffee to survive (yes, survive), not trading oil futures. Green Mountain will be there to innovate and supply those people who do not want the expensive, same quality brewing that Starbucks offers. If you don't believe me go into any office and find the Keurig (Vue or whatever else they come up with) filled with the cheap, easy Green Mountain branded k-cups two years from now.

    Two years from now no one will remember the GMCR crash, it will go back to above 12 forward p/e, and be fairly valued just like it should.

    And go ahead. Let the commenter come who think that I know nothing and you know everything.

    Tags: GMCR, SBUX
    May 08 8:49 AM | Link | Comment!
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers


  • EZPW- investment of the decade
    Jul 19, 2013
  • Get ready for pawnshops. They are growing into fantastic markets and just getting started. No one is taking notice. $EZPW is going to killit
    Mar 12, 2013
More »
Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.