Michael Church

The iPhone: Apple's First Flop

This article is written by someone who sells equity investing ideas??? Seeking Alpha should force a response here. This article is lacking any credibility whatsoever.

Regardless of whether apple is a good investment or not, at least forge a real argument.

Defining Yourself and Your Reality In This Market

when i say "said this" im referring to your market top calls.

Defining Yourself and Your Reality In This Market

I prefer Bill King's observation: the "major reason to believe housing has not yet bottomed: Yesterday, Easy Al, speaking about housing, averred, 'I think the worst is behind us.' Didn’t he say that a quarter or two ago?"

Havent you said this for 20 quarters?? Just a little devils advocate here....

Also, complacency aside look at short interest. How do explain this? Also, Shrinking Supply of US Securities coupled with short interest? This rally is not about the economy.

Will Apple's Big Marketing Campaign Work? It's Doubtful.

Tommy--

Could not agree more. I have seen your comments around here before. Kudos for calling it like it is.

Everyone loves to harp about the rambling "Macheads". It would appear to me, in this debate, they are the only ones making any sense whatsoever.

Apple: Biting off More than It Can Chew?

Look around, i think you will find some rock solid commentary. Obviously there is good and bad.

As to this article specifically, its a rookie assesment. Apple fanatics abound. However, i take note in the recent rise in negative sentiment regarding apple. Its arguement is too simplistic. iPhone is too expensive? Cmon. Pricing in mac book? Cmon. They have the best margins in the business. In fact it is the only PC company with any semblance of pricing.

The biggest mistake in this analysis as i see it, is its complete neglect of the Apple TV product. Shorting apple in the mid 90's is highly unlikely to net you anything but a loss. Apple has made its play to become the defacto distributor of video content. If you have used iTunes you will understand how large this opportunity is. Sure iTunes is not a major earnings driver, however, it has helped drive ipod sales. The video opportunity stands to be even bigger than iTunes, driving both hardware sales and content alike.

Apple has unbundled video. Whether or not they ultimately win as the standard for video content distribution, is anyones guess. But there is one thing certain. Now (or even the mid-90's) is not the time to short apple. not even close. They are on the verge of a major technological and sociological shift. Think about it. They just made a play to become Comcast and DirectTV. Victory may be 2 years out, but its here now. And if they begin to show signs of life in this battle, you will see a lift in price. The market for distributing DVDs and Television is much larger than even iPod. Controlling content has numerous intangible beenfits. And with this platform, distribution is easily scalable to a GLOBAL level.

For those of us who do not soak up 8 hrs of programming week, the decision to rid ourselves of our monthly Comcast bill will be easy. Why would i pay 100 a month for something of which i use 3% of? the answer: i wouldnt. And i wont. And im not alone. Buying the episodes of the Wire and being content with that, will save me some bucks, and make Apple some money. Its a simple concept, but investing in apple takes a simple approach, must liek its products.

Of course, apple has its work cut out in the meantime. Like signing up networks and production companies. Now if they fail in that; u may have a shortable idea. But shorting on its valuation at 95 is a dangerous game. This stock is expensive for a reason.

Comcast Triples Q4 Earnings, Outstanding New Cable Subscriptions

Comcast investors need to ask themselves several questions:

1. How does comcast stack up to IPTV and Fiber to the Home?

2. How does comcast deal with the unbundling of video content?

3. How does comcast handle the millions of Triple play customers whose new cable service will jump dramatically in price once the initial offering expires? And that is in the face of competition coming online from several angles.

Not a pretty place.

Housing Market: Not As Bad As Feared

While i do agree with your assessment of mortgage apps and the no-doc loan, i think your anecdotal experience is a bit far from reality. And fortunately the US economy is much larger than the "nightlife" scene in Laguna Beach. Fact is you obviously frequent one of the more inflated regions of real estate. Obviously the chill in these regions will be more prounounced, hence you get what you see. However, real estate is still very much regional and a good portion of the US real estate market never went anywhere close to bubbliscious. Housing will be weak for a long time coming. However, the end of the world scenario that many expect is unlikely to come to fruitition. This is a supply issue. Too much was built in the past 6 years. However, demand in the form of rising wages has remained firm. While investing in housing may not be fruitful for some time, its implications outside of its own sector are less powerful than many purport. So long as rates remain low, the housing will remain just another situation to monitor. Nothing more nothing less. The sub prime market will suffer, and at the margin will work to dampen real estate. But the story ends there. 65k a year outside of laguna beach is a extremely nice living. Laguna Beach is a choice. Rents in less glamorous region like philadelphia come in around 700-1100. Anyone making 65k with a 900 rent and 500 car payment (which is for purchase. lease would be around 250-300) has roughly 1900 in excess after tax income each month. Which when heating is tagged as well probably comes in around $1,400 a month in excess after tax income. I think 60 dollars a day in disposable income is more than enough to get by on. And this is by very conservative measures.

Apple's Hubris: Will All The Hype Go According to Plan?

I am at work writing this on a awful Dell. If i were at home, id be on my MacBook Pro. Apple has passionate fans, because the product creates this passion. I know, i am a hard won convert.

But bottom line is this. Herb has an agenda, and has had one for a long time. Its tough being wrong.

The iPhone is great. But the real news is Apple TV. Apple made its play to become the de facto distributor of all video and audio content world wide. If succesful its sales will undoubtedly approach and exceed that of motorola.

Technology in the consumer arena is hit driven, and while this puts an asterisk next to everyone, Apple is the only player to prove capable of churning out hit products. Ask motorola how it fared in following up its own hit the Razr. The Slivr, the Crazr, or whatever they crapped up. Motorola stumbled upon the Razr, and as of this weeks anouncement, is stumbling over its own inflated stock price, as it proved unable to follow thru.

Apple is expensive, and i know why Herb hates it. But sometimes things are expensive for a reason. This may be one of those times. Whoever wins the digital distribution game will make a nice penny. It may be Softie, it may be Sony. Or Apple. Whoever it is will win big. The winner is anyones guess. But this is for certain: Apple just fired the first shot and it is now on its way, no one can stop it. So look out Blockbuster, look out Netflix. And even Comcast and other On Demand players. Apple, soon to be Microsoft are comin to town and they will want everyones lunch. As a consumer I cant wait!!

iPhone Suppliers: Broadcom's In, Nvidia's Out

Mosys. A company i have highlighted on here before, could be a potential candidate. Their technology would be a great fit for a graphics intensive phone like the iphone. I would only be speculating on this. But there is some evidence, as management has continually mentioned its value proposition regarding high volume, high end consumer phones. Not to mention and outstanding and rather large contract with fujitsu. The details of this deal have yet to be released, no mention of what product, other than a "grpahics intensive, high volume consumer product". And that the contract was of similar size and scope as their Nintendo Wii contract. Its interesting food for thought. But again, im jsut speculating...

Apple TV: A Device We Don't Need?

Could not agree more. At face it appears useless.

However, this is the same question i asked myself years ago regarding the ipod and itunes. Why pay when its free? Well that has answered itself now, and i use itunes exclusively. The key will be bringing in a slew of high quality content from all the networks. If that can be accomplished, then this Apple Tv is bigger than most expect. If i am Blockbuster, Netflix, or even comcast, i am very scared right now.

Frankly if apple can pull off bringing a ton of content online, then this news will trump the iphone and then some. Disney sees it. News Corp will likely see it as well. Will the other networks bite? It would mark the end of TV ads as we know it. So im sure it will be a battle. But it seems more a question of when than if...

The unbundling of video content is happening before our eyes. It will undoubtedly have major implications.

Delusional Raging Bulls?

Probably not the actual answer. But how about this: Short Covering. Short interst is close to all time highs, that could answer exactly what you asked. Bears capitulating and covering. They may cover shorts with buying, but i doubt they/you cover the bearish stance... Hence you can get pessimism in a rising market. The kicker is, what happens when the near record short interest turns squeeze, and bullish sentiment starts rising rapidly.... Just a thought...

MoSys: Pure Play on Nintendo Popularity

Steve, could not agree more. And what u say is the foundation for my thesis here. Just a random note, i woke up at the crack of dawn to get a Nintendo and at first glance i think this system has a huge opportunity to expand. I am by no means a "hardcore" gamer, and it think this system has the potential to appeal to both. The Wii-mote really is impresssive and works surprising well. 3rd Party game makers woke up to Nintendo back in february at the E3 conference. They have been scrambling since. But, if they commit significant resources to this system (which they may be forced to do given its early popularity) there is potential to develop some really innovative games with this controller. I could see some seriously revolutionary and blockbuster titles arising from this system.

A pullback is always possible. And MOSY trades pretty thinly. So any near term volatility to the downside would make a good entry point. Its a good story that has the potential to grow into something more than just Nintendo. But if the Wii is a success there is always the potential for the Wii 2. MOsy and NIntendo (its actually through NEC) have had a long relationship dating back to the Gamecube, and that is where my speculation of the Fujitsu contract being a portable gaming device originates from.

Thanks for the questions!! Have a great holiday yourself. Go buy a Nintendo!!

MoSys: Pure Play on Nintendo Popularity

my apologies. 15m is this years estimate. sorry about that, was writing quickly.

My thoughts regarding the cash would be a buy-back. However, a current executive has a sell plan in place. so i beleive that would not be possible until that ended, which i believe is next month. I cant see a aquisition in the cards here, so that could be a possibility.

As for pricing it in. I think the recent run up has caught some of that, however i do think that there is more left in the tank. In my opinion the Wii is going to continue to outstrip expectations. 4m million worldwide by year end will be easily attainable if rumors of the 1m sold at the north america launch are true. Also keep in mind that nintendo has a much stronger hold in japan and should be more dominant in that market (dec 2 is japan launch). Their strength in the US market right now is a serious plus. Sony continues to fumble and production issues there will only further benefit Nintendo.

They have signed a couple new contracts recently. Fujitsu was recently announced, however, the actual product with which Mosy's IP is going into has yet to be disclosed. Management indicated it was a high volume consumer electronic product. Speculation suggests this may be a portable gaming device. But that would be just guessing from the language in the press release. And on its recent quarter call management indicated another contract was signed similar to the fujitsu deal, however, did not disclose further details.

Also of note is a collaboration with Verisilicon, a chinese foundry focusing on SOC's. which is Mosy's sweetspot.

Also they recently settled a litigation with uniram that was sapping 500k a quarter.

And there is still a decent short interest that has been increasing into its bottom this summer, although that may likely have dropped recently.

It was already a takeover target from Synopsus a few years back. That deal however fell apart. I spoke to management a few months back and asked what was up with the insider sales. The reply was that he had founding shares that he had never monetized and his wife was pressuring him for a higher quality lifestyle. whatever that means. I would be concerned here except that the other co-founder (Dr. Hsu and now a director) who left and is now with TSMC has about 2.5m shares still and hasnt sold since 2004. So i have taken managements word there. Keep in mind current management (Chet Sylvestri and Jim Pekarsky) came in shortly after the Synopsus blow up. I would just be guessing but there may be some internal dynamics involved with the "new" guys vs. the founder.

My personal target is 12. Probably on the optimistic side, but i feel that there is some potential upside remaining to the new contract announcements and the continued strength of the wii.

i hope that makes sense, lots of questions, just trying to address each. Let me know if this helps.

The Real Reason to Avoid Homebuilders

Thanks for the info. I recently bought a home and had i not had a good friend in the mortgage industry to point some of these things out, i may have never noticed. And as i watched the process unfold it became clear to me that a good deal of these fees and various services were less than reputable.

The Real Reason to Avoid Homebuilders

www.tbo.com/news/metro...

makes you say, hmmmmm