Michael Church

The iPhone: Apple's First Flop

This article is written by someone who sells equity investing ideas??? Seeking Alpha should force a response here. This article is lacking any credibility whatsoever.

Regardless of whether apple is a good investment or not, at least forge a real argument.

Will Apple's Big Marketing Campaign Work? It's Doubtful.

Tommy--

Could not agree more. I have seen your comments around here before. Kudos for calling it like it is.

Everyone loves to harp about the rambling "Macheads". It would appear to me, in this debate, they are the only ones making any sense whatsoever.

Apple: Biting off More than It Can Chew?

Look around, i think you will find some rock solid commentary. Obviously there is good and bad.

As to this article specifically, its a rookie assesment. Apple fanatics abound. However, i take note in the recent rise in negative sentiment regarding apple. Its arguement is too simplistic. iPhone is too expensive? Cmon. Pricing in mac book? Cmon. They have the best margins in the business. In fact it is the only PC company with any semblance of pricing.

The biggest mistake in this analysis as i see it, is its complete neglect of the Apple TV product. Shorting apple in the mid 90's is highly unlikely to net you anything but a loss. Apple has made its play to become the defacto distributor of video content. If you have used iTunes you will understand how large this opportunity is. Sure iTunes is not a major earnings driver, however, it has helped drive ipod sales. The video opportunity stands to be even bigger than iTunes, driving both hardware sales and content alike.

Apple has unbundled video. Whether or not they ultimately win as the standard for video content distribution, is anyones guess. But there is one thing certain. Now (or even the mid-90's) is not the time to short apple. not even close. They are on the verge of a major technological and sociological shift. Think about it. They just made a play to become Comcast and DirectTV. Victory may be 2 years out, but its here now. And if they begin to show signs of life in this battle, you will see a lift in price. The market for distributing DVDs and Television is much larger than even iPod. Controlling content has numerous intangible beenfits. And with this platform, distribution is easily scalable to a GLOBAL level.

For those of us who do not soak up 8 hrs of programming week, the decision to rid ourselves of our monthly Comcast bill will be easy. Why would i pay 100 a month for something of which i use 3% of? the answer: i wouldnt. And i wont. And im not alone. Buying the episodes of the Wire and being content with that, will save me some bucks, and make Apple some money. Its a simple concept, but investing in apple takes a simple approach, must liek its products.

Of course, apple has its work cut out in the meantime. Like signing up networks and production companies. Now if they fail in that; u may have a shortable idea. But shorting on its valuation at 95 is a dangerous game. This stock is expensive for a reason.

Apple's Hubris: Will All The Hype Go According to Plan?

I am at work writing this on a awful Dell. If i were at home, id be on my MacBook Pro. Apple has passionate fans, because the product creates this passion. I know, i am a hard won convert.

But bottom line is this. Herb has an agenda, and has had one for a long time. Its tough being wrong.

The iPhone is great. But the real news is Apple TV. Apple made its play to become the de facto distributor of all video and audio content world wide. If succesful its sales will undoubtedly approach and exceed that of motorola.

Technology in the consumer arena is hit driven, and while this puts an asterisk next to everyone, Apple is the only player to prove capable of churning out hit products. Ask motorola how it fared in following up its own hit the Razr. The Slivr, the Crazr, or whatever they crapped up. Motorola stumbled upon the Razr, and as of this weeks anouncement, is stumbling over its own inflated stock price, as it proved unable to follow thru.

Apple is expensive, and i know why Herb hates it. But sometimes things are expensive for a reason. This may be one of those times. Whoever wins the digital distribution game will make a nice penny. It may be Softie, it may be Sony. Or Apple. Whoever it is will win big. The winner is anyones guess. But this is for certain: Apple just fired the first shot and it is now on its way, no one can stop it. So look out Blockbuster, look out Netflix. And even Comcast and other On Demand players. Apple, soon to be Microsoft are comin to town and they will want everyones lunch. As a consumer I cant wait!!

iPhone Suppliers: Broadcom's In, Nvidia's Out

Mosys. A company i have highlighted on here before, could be a potential candidate. Their technology would be a great fit for a graphics intensive phone like the iphone. I would only be speculating on this. But there is some evidence, as management has continually mentioned its value proposition regarding high volume, high end consumer phones. Not to mention and outstanding and rather large contract with fujitsu. The details of this deal have yet to be released, no mention of what product, other than a "grpahics intensive, high volume consumer product". And that the contract was of similar size and scope as their Nintendo Wii contract. Its interesting food for thought. But again, im jsut speculating...

Apple TV: A Device We Don't Need?

Could not agree more. At face it appears useless.

However, this is the same question i asked myself years ago regarding the ipod and itunes. Why pay when its free? Well that has answered itself now, and i use itunes exclusively. The key will be bringing in a slew of high quality content from all the networks. If that can be accomplished, then this Apple Tv is bigger than most expect. If i am Blockbuster, Netflix, or even comcast, i am very scared right now.

Frankly if apple can pull off bringing a ton of content online, then this news will trump the iphone and then some. Disney sees it. News Corp will likely see it as well. Will the other networks bite? It would mark the end of TV ads as we know it. So im sure it will be a battle. But it seems more a question of when than if...

The unbundling of video content is happening before our eyes. It will undoubtedly have major implications.