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Michael Clark  

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  • Oil: The Wildfire Spreads [View article]
    American consumers giving up Cheap Chinese, going for extra American quality, with all that extra money they are making? Think not, WG. Americans are just beginning to stop buying generally. That's the new paradigm. "I can live without it."
    Nov 30, 2015. 04:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Policy: Unsafe At Any Speed? [View article]
    If we do it right, David, we would almost never have debt. We would have a known date for the end of debt; and everyone would need to plan for this transition from SPENDING to SAVING

    Recesssion (true recession) is the end of the Business Cycle:

    1911-1929: Business Cycle
    1929-1947: Recession/Depression
    1947-1965: Business Cycle
    1965-1983: Recession/Depression
    1983-2001: Business Cycle
    2001-2019: Recession/Depression....

    Remember, the economy CANNOT grow once the Business Cycle ends, so higher interest rates and higher taxes are NOT considerations with respect to Growth, which is Time-Dependent.
    Nov 30, 2015. 02:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Policy: Unsafe At Any Speed? [View article]
    Actually, David, there was no laissez-faire reaction to the 1930's or the 1890's or 1870's Great Depressions. There was failed monetary policies.

    Armageddon comes every 36 years. That is the real message of the bible. We plan for armageddon not with monetary tricks, which have NEVER worked, but with plans on how to finance each Great Depression, through a communal obligation lasting the 18 years of the armageddon.

    Those who benefit the most from the freedom of the Capitalist season, the Day-Cycle, 1983-2001, for instance, pay the most for the Night season, which is socialist by today's definition. Capitalist by Day; Socialist by Night. Let's be honest about what we need, and what we are really doing. When the bell goes off, after the damning judgments of the Night-Cycle, then we return to the re-creation of the world. Celebrate the creations of the world; survive the destruction of the world, as a common people; celebrate the re-creation of the world. The worker bees work for their own glory by Day; but also for the survival of the hive by Night.
    Nov 30, 2015. 02:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Policy: Unsafe At Any Speed? [View article]
    Not laissez-faire, David. Planned. But planned with regard to the existing facts, which, sadly, many people don't see. During the desperate swings to the Night-Cycle, those who make the most money during the preceding Day-Cycle get to pay for the social programs that allow everyone else to live during the periods of non-growth.

    Not laissez-faire. But clearly not welfare for the rich as our new lords have fashioned under mysterious names like QE, ZIRP, NIRP. Quite the opposite.

    I have no problem with rich and poor separating during the Growth Phase, as long as rich and poor draw closer together when Growth abates at the end of 18 years of expanson. Today, we have been tricked to give the rich the glory of the Growth Phase heroism, and, during the Night-Cycle, we now steal money from out unborn children to make sure the rich don't lose money when they, indeed, should be giving much of it back.
    Nov 30, 2015. 02:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil: The Wildfire Spreads [View article]
    Oil is QE dependent, or at least FED-dependent. If the FED agrees to weaken the Dollar, oil rises. If the FED tightens, oil collapses. Now with rates at zero, oil collapses at the mention of higher rates. We've been through an eternity of lower and lower rates. How much lower for how much longer can rates go to boost oil prices. Does not look good to me for oil in the long run.
    Nov 29, 2015. 04:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Policy: Unsafe At Any Speed? [View article]
    Yes, ghiblinewt. Data-dependency means following, not leading. They need to be Time-dependent, and philosophy-dependent instead. Watch the ocean currents rise, watch the oceans fall. This is a symbol of how things work.
    Nov 29, 2015. 12:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Policy: Unsafe At Any Speed? [View article]
    I don't believe there should be no monetary policy, David. There should be WISE monetary policy. For this to happen economists must be wise. They must understand nature, and nature's flows and cycles.

    Monetary policy must work in time with the Business Cycle. But economists cannot agree that there is a Business Cycle; if they believe there is a Business Cycle, they disagree on the nature of the Business Cycle. The Business Cycle implies an understanding of Time. Modern economy has no understanding of Time. They try to undertand Time by taking a clock apart, and studying the clocks extremities.

    Time is the breath of God, in fact. That is why economists avoid it like the plague, fear that they will be linked with fundamentalists, superstitious right-wing anti-intellectuals. BUT...Time is the KEY factor, not supply and demand. You mention the river. This is a good image. TIME is a river, except Time is more complex than the river. Time, in fact, changes direction, flows outward, then flows inward. This, I understand, is complex to see. We can understand Time by seeing what time DOES -- that is where history comes in. Time expands outwardly (1911-1929; 1947-1965; 1983-2001); then Time expands inwardly (1929-1947; 1965-1983; 2001-2019...) -- when Time expands inwardly, Time becomes entropic in the outside world, the material world. Time loses its cohesions, and begins to dissolve, dissociate itself....

    You don't have to believe me when I write this. Maybe it is better to see Time as that River that runs above ground for 18 years and then underground for 18 years.

    The important thing for economics is to understand that Time builds the material world for 18 years and then builds the immaterial world for 18 years. And when Time is building the immaterial world is cohesion principle is transfered away from the material world -- and, as Yeats wrote so brilliantly, "things fall apart".

    To keep it simple, lower rates when Time is building the material world (1911-1929; 1947-1965; 1983-2001...) and raise rates when Time leaves.

    Fed policy just needs to follow the Business Cycle: 1911-1929, lower rates to encourage growth; 1929-1947, raise rates to discourage debt and encourage saving (no growth is possible when the River of Time is in the Underworld)....2001-2019, higher rates (slowly, steadily), encourage saving, encourage a strong currency. The Business Cycle returns 2019-2037, which means lower rates. It is a kind of Moon-Tide they should be studying. It's very simple actually.

    First thing, we have to agree what and when the Business Cycle is.
    Nov 28, 2015. 11:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil: The Wildfire Spreads [View article]
    Europe is strengthening; and China stocks are gaining traction....?

    You're not seeing what I'm seeing. We have a HUGE problem with global debt. There is no growth. We are still trying to use debt to camouflage the lack of growth. Since 2001 we have been using debt growth as a substitute for REAL economic growth.

    In my view we will see thousands of companies defaulting in the next five years. We have some 260% of total debt/gdp in the US alone that we need to destroy, almost all to come through defaults. Positive thinking is not going to get us through this. Positive thinking and lower interest rates are the parents of The Great Age of Debt Glut; positive thinking and higher interest rates are the parents of the Great Age of Default.
    Nov 28, 2015. 09:05 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil: The Wildfire Spreads [View article]
    Thanks, Eric. Very informative. Appreciate it.
    Nov 28, 2015. 06:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Policy: Unsafe At Any Speed? [View article]
    I would have raised interest rates beginning in 2001. We would not have had the same debacle in 2008 because we would have been discouraging debt bubbles since 2001.

    I would be retiring debt from 2001-2019. Then, as 2019 approaches, with debt reduced and back down toward 130%/gdp, I would be preparing to begin lowering interest rates in 2019.

    2001-2019: no growth is possible. Raise rates, help people earn interest income to pay off what debt they have, to protect the US Dollar.

    In 2019, we begin a new expansion, with almost no debt -- and with money in the bank from higher rates (interest income) to help fuel a new expansion. With a resurrected US Dollar we can even begin to weaken the Dollar again from 2019-2037, to gain trade advantages.
    Nov 28, 2015. 01:37 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Policy: Unsafe At Any Speed? [View article]
    I don't know how I can get through to you, David. "That would have produced growth." That is your stumbling block. We CANNOT have growth all the time. Growth for 18 years. Then rest for 18 years, NO MATTER WHAT WE DO.

    I would have the FED begin raising interest rates in 2001 -- a growth period is an INFLATION -- and initiate support for the 18 years of non-growth, savings, avoiding new debt, eliminating old debt that is a losing proposition. The Business Cycle is limited to 18 years. Why? That's a philosophical or religious discussion. For our understanding, it just IS.

    Growth is finite, periodical, ends, and re-begins 18 years later. In your mind Growth is Good; and non-Growth is evil. Rethink this premise. Day is good; Night is bad; Summer is good; Winter is bad. That seems to be what you are saying. Is that really true. Winter does one thing; Summer another; these seasons seem to be opposites but they are really working together, each part of a larger process.

    So with Growth (spending) and Non-Growth (saving).

    You have to get beyond the Growth is Good premise. A larger reality awaits.
    Nov 27, 2015. 07:07 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Policy: Unsafe At Any Speed? [View article]
    The lesson these people need to learn is that a central bank is a subsidy for financial markets. Its not a tool to regulate the economy, create equality, look out for consumers, or any of the other propaganda talking points used to sell it to the suckers. The job of a central bank is to stealth tax the general populace and transfer that wealth to the financial markets, period.
    Well said, Hoop. This is why the FED needs to be audited; anyone breaking the law needs to be arrested (this includes foreign bankers as well as American bankers and corporate law-breakers). This is why the FED system needs to be reordered, so that the FED becomes a tool to regulate the economy, rather than a bagman for the Big Banks.
    Nov 27, 2015. 04:44 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Policy: Unsafe At Any Speed? [View article]
    Bixem: depends what you mean by a 'viable' alternative. Americans have been living with cycles of expansion and deflation for several hundred years, without the FED stealing money from the future to try to 'cushion the blow' of the Bust Cycle.

    If you get rid of the Bust Cycle you also get rid of the Boom Cycle (the Big Bang). Is this what you want? See my comment above. FED involvement has cushioned the blow of the Bust Cycle to the point of turning America into a Nursing Home, protecting debt, protecting corporations against the onslaught of failure, protecting those who used bad judgment and loaded up on debt at the direction of the government and Wall Street. Yes we can keep everyone from failing for a while longer, by stealing more money from the future. We can even try NIRP, which will be more stealing from the future to protect the Speculator Class (thieves mostly).

    Is the job of the FED to 'extend' the business cycle indefinitely, protecting the world from change, or is it to lead business into growth cycles and then through and again out of deflation cycles. The FED is a coward. It wants to stop at the precipice, at the chasm...."let's change the rules".

    Every 36 years we approach the chasm. Our ancestors have gone through the deadly destructive defaltions and depressions and have come out stronger in the long run. Depressions are periods of recasting our metal, transmuting our vision, preparing us for the next expansion. We have done this over and over again. Now the FED wants to stop the merry-go-round; it has lost its nerve.

    Here is the law. Think of it as a law. We like options. We are spoiled. We are soft. We want candy and electronics and soft worlds filled with options, all pleasant. Here's the law: "For every economic inflation there is an equal and opposite deflation." There are no options. There is only the law.

    1911-1929: inflation
    1929-1947: deflation
    1947-1965: inflation
    1965-1983: deflation
    1983-2001: inflation
    2001-2019: deflation

    Inflation presupposes the elimination of debt from the previous inflation. 130% total debt/gdp is a ground zero for the next inflation. We currently have 385% total debt/gdp. Instead of destroying debt with higher interest rates the FED has been protecting debt by stealing money from the future to give to the richest elements of the world's individuals and businesses, believing that if the rich spend the Business Cycle (1983-2001) might be magically 'extended'. It won't be. (See the law above.) The rich don't spend; the rich save; that is how they becoming rich, by saving. Something the rest of us need to learn.

    18 years of spending: 1983-2001. Spending and growth and lower interest rates go togethter.

    18 years of saving: 2001-2019. The FED is dead set against saving. It muddies their GDP picture. Saving is failure in the FED mind. The FED is one-eye blind, clearly. Saving and rest and higher interest rates, and strengthening of the local currency, when no growth is possible.

    This is the new paradigm. Follow the FED, the bumbling, one-eyed FED; or follow this new paradigm. The FED leads to the nursing home archetype, where the FED takes care of everyone, but we all have to live in their nursing home. Or follow the New Paradigm, which leads back in to life.
    Nov 27, 2015. 04:33 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Policy: Unsafe At Any Speed? [View article]
    David: The argument that the FED policies have been disastrous, but are still better than all the alternatives misses the point of what cycles are for. The Deflation Cycle, which the FED has fought tooth-and-nail, so much as to steal trillions of dollars from the future to try to plug the many holes in the dyke, exists for one reason: to limit new debt and to slowly corrosively destroy old unproductive debt so that we can approach again another organic ecnomic growth cycle.

    What the FED has succeeded in doing is to keep the Old Business Cycle (1983-2001) still breathing in tubes, immobilie, unproducitive, breathing, in vegetative state. This is the opposite of what would be good for the economy is the larger view. We have stolen money from the future in order to keep the old generation smiling. In truth, that generation is NOT coming back to life. So the FED has stolen money from the future in order to sustain an old order that should die a natural death so that the next wave of growth can emanate forward in history. The FED is like Saturn in the myth, eating his children so he can stay in power.

    You call that the best of all possible worlds.

    We have more total debt to gdp today than we did in 2009. Protecting debt is not the job of the FED. Perhaps it is now, but it is not the task of preparing for the next Business Cycle. The FED has been very successful in protecting the status quo, of turning America into a nursing home. Is this the job of the FED, to turn America into a nursing home. If so, yes, they have been very successful. ONe question: who is going to pay when the bill comes in?
    Nov 27, 2015. 04:15 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HP Inc. down 13.2% after sales miss, guidance cut; Needham downgrades [View news story]
    It IS self-destructing. Please continue with the drama.
    Nov 25, 2015. 08:05 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment