Michael Collins

Software, tech
Michael Collins
Software, tech
Contributor since: 2011
Company: Hartbridge Capital
We used to call this the 'Death Spiral' Convertible...
"As a reminder, Vringo's $12.5 million financing transaction allows the company to repay monthly the principal amount of the outstanding notes in registered shares of VRNG common stock issued at a 15% discount to the then current market price, rather than cash."
As an investor, you short the shares all the way to the gutter, then you collect your shares at a price 15% below the GUTTER... You make maybe 30-50% sometimes pending on where you stared shorting...
Winner Winner Chicken Dinner!!!
Hence the 'Death Spiral'
Moral of the story: never touch a company with a any sort of convertible note with resets.
Isn't the BOD receiving like $1M per year each, or some crazy sum, in compensation?
As i recall this board was one of the highest paid ones in the USA. real scandalous stuff.
Bronte Capital latest exposee out 20 mns ago is a total checkmate on $VRX and Ackman http://bit.ly/1P93mMQ
It appears these fools have gone and registered dozens and dozens of fake pharmacies across US States. All named after chess pieces and Stephen King novels, all with the intention of defrauding insurance companies.
I agree because they have editors that proof these and accept the submissions, so they cannot hide under the 'not responsible for what users post on the internet etc" free speech defense.
They have edited, approved, and put forward this material, hence they actively help propagate the lies in cases like this.
I think Seeking Alpha editorial work has been appalling letting this slip by. They need to use a little stricter editing to stop people flapping away like this.
This is not in the same class of the body of work provided by Bronte Capital and Citron Research.
Your glaring errors have completely discredit your past work and showed that these accusations are filled with little else but innuendos and misrepresentation.
Going on about screen grabs and 1 missing Film title? please.
You also showed a fundamental lack of basic accounting and knowledge of the film business.
Good luck, but i think this muckraking is amateurish at best and generally a discredit to the Seeking Alpha community.
Great Read. I wish Don Dion from SA would retract his recommendation before readers get burned. I might short the opening cross.
1.) This is not an IPO but a secondary, usually these 'mis marketd IPOS' open down as fast money is easily fooled into these.
2.) might want to che check this short thesis here and pull your recomendation before readers get burned:
so pretty much its a total toss up? 60/40 on 5 observations=statistic... meaningless exercise in Pumping BBRY.
Oh Welll, I've certainly could be said to have pushed this stock a few times.
She's fired .. like tomorrow..
Funny. Trading down 10% in pre because of one case of hives on a fringe product on its pipeline?
Makes no sense until you realize lots of jittery retail money in here.
Great article. It is hard to trying to extrapolate these numbers and you had done a fair job doing so.
What really strikes me is the paltry Antares market cap of $350 million given some of the figures you are throwing about.
Thanks for the article.
Hmm.. ..52 week high was 34.20 for BKW, not even close to $39?
You fail to mention the reason behind mass revenue drop and seeming margin expansion: they are becoming. A total franchise business.
Also, these guys are not aiming for US growth, but EM growth. 3G, who own Annheiser Bush, are experts at that.
YouGov poll info will soon revert after the headlines drop from collective memory.
Thanks for the article.
When you take away the hardware related 'services revenue' what is left? A paltry MDM revenue that will be attacked by Apple/IBM.
So grabbing the 'services revenue' as a life raft while dismissing the hardware that generates it...is silly.
There is little hope other than a buy out / break up now.
That being said I love the hardware.
How can they possibly ever justify their $1M board member compensation ? Really?
Come on guys. The writing was on the wall here.
Maybe its important to mention that the BOD of Vringo pays itself $1M per member per year...compared to fortune 500 companies that pay their board members $125K.
That should have been the warning right there that this was little more than a pump and dump scheme.
Investors who shorted naked here (safe assumption most have) have T+3 to deliver stock. They can buy back at T1, so assuming they begun shorting Monday, they have to buy back on Thursday-Friday latest assuming their brokers have an exchange seat enabling investors to buy and settle on T1.
This is like creating an artificial 'borrow' for two nights only.
So if there is going to be dead cat bounce, its coming over the next three days. Friday would be an optimal exit point really.
Wow. Well done "Pscho Analyst"..not only did you nail the outcome but you correctly named the suitor. Impressive.
definitely following him from now on.
I don't think you can spin this in Blackberry's favor no matter how hard you try. If IBM roll out a strong product, that installed base of Iphones in the corporate world will drive MDM decision making to this new product an instant hit that will crush other MDM players. It will be painful.
Also, IBM had a lot of time to observe and gllem all the info they needed from courtesy of Heins last year, so I expect their offering to be very competitive.
What a flunky that Forbes contributor Egan. Forbes is all too happy to let anyone bastardize its brand for a few headlines. He is among the worst of them.
Anyone know which bulge bracket firms have analyst that cover RGDO ?
Basically 14% is market risk / index risk, the further 24% is asymmetric risk to ATRS, attribute it to whatever weakness you want in ATRS, but that 24% drop is NOT index pull back and I don't think its fair to describe as such.
Great explanation of the risks, the shorts, and well supported conclusion. Thank you!
I only disagree with this:
"My case in point is that Antares stock has mostly followed the movements of the SPDR Biotech ETF (XBI) and iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (http://bit.ly/1joTYn5) in lockstep over the past 3 months, albeit with a higher beta."
-14% vs -38% is just not a following movements by any stretch. ATRS simply had a crushing drop vs the index.
PS I'm long but after reading this I'm more inclined to sell down....hmm.
Agreed. I'm thinking of buying DLR Puts before earnings to protect my DFT long...
This is definitely a someone smarter than me knows something, and with CEO being fired, who knows?
Interesting write up and congrats on your purchase at $44.0
My only question to the BOD of DLR is why did they fire Foust so suddenly and without notice? Have they unearthed anything?
I suspect next earnings call this will be the topic of conversations and I would steer clear of DLR until this matter is resolved.
"Re "company has been been crumbling", the stock price of DLR is actually up by 23% from the low of 43 that it hit in early December."
You must be kidding right? Jacobson took this stock down from mid 70s. What planet are you on trying to quote a 23% rise.
The only question i want answered are:
1.) Why was CEO abruptly dismissed;
2.) Have accountants turned up anything?
Until you know that, this is an untouchable.
Also I'm not short DLR, but I think the smart play here is short DLR to buy DFT/COR.
Jonathan Jacobson has been alleging accounting irregularities. It's the backbone of his short thesis.
Now that Foust was fired, investors need to weigh his accusations very seriously.
No one really knows how serious of the accounting issues stemming from poorly written leases by DLR and its acquisitions. There is 0 transparency on this issue.
Since Jacobson's accusations, we have had accounting issue after accounting issue rear its ugly head. For example in a properly written triple net lease, those state tax issue are the tenant's problem, not DLRs.
The only question on the next earnings call is why was Foust shown the door so abruptly and without a succession plan in place? What triggered that?
What do the shorts know, which such certainty, that permitted them to take such a dangerously massive position here?
1.) Shorts know something about account of lease expensing that we do not.
2.) Since this short thesis at Ira Sorhn last year, company has been been crumbling and announcing non stop accounting issues.
3.) CEO has been abruptly dismissed.
Do you want to hold this stock when the company answers these questions in the next earnings call?
Hell No!
This stock has been cut in half. crazy
The only question that matters on next earnings call is:
What did the BOD find out that led them to fire the CEO? Is there a study, accounting issue to be disclosed?
Is this Enron? Someone has been saying so for a long time and evidence leaning in their favor...
It wasn't voluntary. Accounting issues remain.
Long overdue. nice to see a board of directors step up. Stop down out of fear that more bad news may follow...
Clearly Jacobson short thesis is playing, so I look for new CEO, when hired, to 'clean the decks' which will mean lots of write downs from poorly written leases written/acquired by Foust.
If that happens, this company becomes a buy.