Good recap. I don't hold the stock - a perpetual watcher. If they would release a $799 Macbook I would load the boat up with way out-of-the-money call options. It really is amazing how well the Mac franchise is holding up in this economy - 13% unit growth in premium-rice notebooks is pretty impressive.
I would argue that the high price of the stock means nothing - if it split 4 for 1 nothing would change.
It's true that you can build a faster, more-powerful Windows PC for a fraction of the cost of a Mac. But the average Mac buyer is buying based on superior ease of use, security, reliability, and customer service - regular people don't care about specs.
The economy might become a real issue if employment doesn't rebound soon though.
On Apr 19 02:56 AM Paul H. M. wrote:
> This is a good company. But at over $100/share in this economy? Let's > remember, the price has dipped to around 80 a few times in this year > alone. As an investment, this stock is a high risk at the current > price. > > No matter how good the products, more and more people are losing > their jobs (and therefore, will not want overpriced Mac products). > > > I'm selling puts that with striking prices in the 70's and 80's, > which is a more fair price for this stock. > > I use a windows machine because I can build a faster computer a 1/4 > the price. In this economy, many others will do the same.
On that 138 number, are you talking forward or trailing?
On Apr 17 08:35 AM t0000 wrote:
> Apple's FY '10 EPS will be in the $7 range ($7.20+) and why would > you use a 20 p/e? Just throwing random numbers out there. At least > give a reasonable range. Apple has historically traded as high as > 138 P/E. I think a more reasonable assumption would be in FY '10 > based on estimated $7 EPS using a P/E range of 23 - 45 apple could > be trading any where from $161-$315. Given this information you > decide what P/E you want to use as an investor and good luck.
Apple Could Crush Competitors With a $99 iPhone [View article]
If Apple dropped the iPhone's price down to $99 it could actually dilute the iPhone's valuable brand equity. Motorola started going down the tubes around the time the RAZR hit $99. In addition, AT&T's network wouldn't be able to handle that quick of an increase in the iPhone installed base because iPhone owners use huge amounts of data.
Possible Outcomes of My Apple Purchase [View article]
I think this is a pretty good trade idea. However, I prefer shorter durations - the Nov and Dec calls offer pretty sweet premiums when you consider that this is a relatively high-quality company with a small-at-best chance of lowering guidance or announcing some other piece of awful news. RIMM is also a great candidate for covered calls IMO.
Apple Beats on Profits, Misses on Sales, Cautions on Future [View article]
I think Apple will serve as an excellent test for the health of the broader markets. So few companies can sustain rallies after even the most impressive of earnings report, so if Apple finishes in the green for the week I'll be very impressed.
Why Apple's iTouch Tablet Will Become Its Flagship Product [View article]
Apple Scores Again [View article]
I don't see a Netbook, as I wrote on Minyanville:
bit.ly/15BPlk
Some Free Advice for Electronic Arts [View article]
Apple's Media Tablet Will Cause the Stock to Rocket [View article]
The iPhone launch was far from perfect as the company had to cut price extremely quickly - so you can't call it the driver of the stock.
Why Amazon's Kindle May Be Paying for Itself [View article]
For Apple, Upside Remains [View article]
It's true that you can build a faster, more-powerful Windows PC for a fraction of the cost of a Mac. But the average Mac buyer is buying based on superior ease of use, security, reliability, and customer service - regular people don't care about specs.
The economy might become a real issue if employment doesn't rebound soon though.
On Apr 19 02:56 AM Paul H. M. wrote:
> This is a good company. But at over $100/share in this economy? Let's
> remember, the price has dipped to around 80 a few times in this year
> alone. As an investment, this stock is a high risk at the current
> price.
>
> No matter how good the products, more and more people are losing
> their jobs (and therefore, will not want overpriced Mac products).
>
>
> I'm selling puts that with striking prices in the 70's and 80's,
> which is a more fair price for this stock.
>
> I use a windows machine because I can build a faster computer a 1/4
> the price. In this economy, many others will do the same.
For Apple, Upside Remains [View article]
On Apr 17 08:35 AM t0000 wrote:
> Apple's FY '10 EPS will be in the $7 range ($7.20+) and why would
> you use a 20 p/e? Just throwing random numbers out there. At least
> give a reasonable range. Apple has historically traded as high as
> 138 P/E. I think a more reasonable assumption would be in FY '10
> based on estimated $7 EPS using a P/E range of 23 - 45 apple could
> be trading any where from $161-$315. Given this information you
> decide what P/E you want to use as an investor and good luck.
Apple Could Crush Competitors With a $99 iPhone [View article]
Possible Outcomes of My Apple Purchase [View article]
Apple Beats on Profits, Misses on Sales, Cautions on Future [View article]