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Michael Connellan

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  • When Royalty Trusts Cease To Be Royal [View article]
    BP has no ability to do any such thing. If you check the list of major owners of BPT, BP isn't even among the 20 largest which means they own less than 0.30% of the outstanding shares.
    Sep 1 11:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Teekay LNG Partners Is An Attractive Energy Name With A 6.8% Dividend [View article]
    There may be some double-counting, though I tried to use listings by individual ship names. But the key is that in 2012 and for the next few years, LNG shipping is extremely profitable: there is a limited number of ships; only 1 more will be delivered in 2012 and it takes two years to build, if you can get a spot in the production cycle as there are few builders; and we now have for the first time a global natural gas market. 60% is in Asia, and prices of gas there are in the $15 range. For the 2012-2015 period at least, LNG ship owners will be in a very strong position.
    Aug 31 04:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Royalty Trusts Cease To Be Royal [View article]
    10 percent discount rate
    Aug 30 03:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Royalty Trusts Cease To Be Royal [View article]
    BPT also has a $1 Billion cash reserve that's been ignored. Plus, the total reserves have risen each year; as prices goup, more oil becomes economicallyrecoverable. At $76 BPT is a buy!
    Aug 30 03:06 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Royalty Trusts Cease To Be Royal [View article]
    Huge volue sales...study the chart. Panicked selling. At $76 BPT is a buy!
    Aug 30 03:04 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Royalty Trusts Cease To Be Royal [View article]
    The analysis is shallow and incomplete. It's based on assumed future oilprices of $61-$96 bbl. It fails to account for PBT's $1 Billion cash reserve. It fails to account for the fact that total bbl reserves for BPT have risen a lot each of the last 3 years. At $76 a share, it's a buy!
    Aug 30 03:01 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Teekay LNG Partners Is An Attractive Energy Name With A 6.8% Dividend [View article]
    The 6 leading LNG owners globally, in order, are: QatarGas, Petronas (Malaysian government), NYK (Japanese), MOL (Mitsui, Japanese), Teekay, and Shell.
    Aug 14 03:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris Still Going Strong [View article]
    The key item is that PM is throwing off several hundred million in free cash flow per month! Comparing it to other major tobacco stocks is like deciding which A student gets to be valedictoran. The one suggestion I would have for PM is to move its legal domicile outside the US to lower the tax rate from the current 31 percent - in Ireland it would only be 12.5 percent, for example.
    Aug 3 10:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Teekay LNG Partners Is An Attractive Energy Name With A 6.8% Dividend [View article]
    Milton - TOO does storage, but does overlap TGP in that both have conventional oil tankers. I may be wrong but I believe TGP straight charters them, while TOO incorporates them into services for storage clients, mainly.
    Jul 22 09:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Teekay LNG Partners Is An Attractive Energy Name With A 6.8% Dividend [View article]
    Hohum - Good comment. I believe older ones are at different, presumably lower, rates. I was unable to find a listing of all their ships and the rate for each individually. Their special focus helps them; NYK is the largest, for instance, but they're a general cargo carrier overall with major container ships. Given that there are a finite on order, and LNG demand is growing steadily, rates are likely to stay high.
    Jul 19 03:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Philip Morris Still Best Of Breed? [View article]
    Good article...and if memory serves, PM is generating close to $5 Billion a year in free cash flow - $400 million a month! Camilleri recognized the exceptional international opportunity when he left Altria as CEO to take over PM when it was spun off.
    Jul 18 06:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alliance Resource: Strong Mid-Cap Income Holding In Core Industry [View article]
    Author's update: After this article the stock rose from $73 to $82 early in 2012, but then the entire coal sector began a precipitous slide through early April when it touched $52. This has been caused by a combination of EPA anti-coal proposed rules, coupled with the alternative utility fuel of natural gas going down in cost. Through it all ARLP has continued to pay and raise the dividend. As I write this the stock is at $57. Paraphrasing Wilbur Ross, 'there's little prospect of meaningful improvement in coal' for years to come. That said, one strategy would be waiting until the next ex-dividend date in early August, then selling ARLP. Including dividends, at $57 this will be about a 19% loss. Another approach is to simply hold for the very long term. This has appeal, but with the risk that ARLP is forced to reduce it's dividend in time when it's long term fixed rate contracts re-price, especially the one major utility customer.
    Jul 17 05:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Justice Department is building criminal cases against a number of banks and their employees, including Barclays (BCS), for their role in the manipulation of Libor rates, the NYT reports. Authorities expect to make indictments against at least one bank by the end of 2012, although several firms are looking to arrange deals.  [View news story]
    Someone help me out...
    As I understand it, Barclays under-reported their costs which had the effect of possibly keeping LIBOR lower. In my experience with two companies we borrowed at the 90 day LIBOR rate plus 350 bp. So Barclays in effect helped keep borrowing costs low which saved many, many borrowers money. So who's harmed? Where's the beef?
    Jul 15 01:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Undervalued Staples Might Acquire Office Depot, Target [View article]
    Interesting thesis about Staples making an acquisition. Having done a lot of M&A as an investment banker, I'll share with you that when all the complex financial modeling is said and done, for the deal to be immediately accretive to EPS the P/E of the target - with an assumed 30% takeover premium - has to be lower than the P/E of the acquiror. Office Depot likely passes this test; OMX does not.
    Jul 13 10:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell This Dividend Blimp Right Now: Requiem For A Philip Morris [View article]
    Joe - PM produces about $400 million in free cash flow PER MONTH. It is a superb business. Your thesis hinges not on PM, but on the assumption of other currencies consistently depreciating against the US dollar. The stock has run up considerably, but the dividend will be at $4.00 within 2-3 years, so for me it's a very long term high quality hold.
    Jun 27 08:16 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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