Baytex Energy Dividend Offers Growth And High Yield [View article]
Div payout as a percent of earnings is largely irrelevant. Focus instead on the Statement of Cash Flow and look at the dividends in aggregate compared to cash from operations. Cash flow from continuing operations is the single most important number in the financial statements!
A Quality Income Portfolio For 2012 [View article]
I think a sleeper for MSFT lies in their purchase of Skype, the internet-based phone service. Outside the US, Skype is incredibly cheap and effective, far less expensive than ATT. I'm not a tech guy but I can see Skype taking away a large part of the business from ATT, Verizon, et al at some point.
Alliance Resource: Strong Mid-Cap Income Holding In Core Industry [View article]
I would add to the risk element the fact that 4 customers make up a very significant share of ARLP's utility coal sales. Couple that with the EPA's recent ruling affecting older coal-fired generating stations and the very low price of natural gas as an alternative, and that adds an element of uncertainty for 2012 and beyond.
Alliance Resource: Strong Mid-Cap Income Holding In Core Industry [View article]
AHGP's distributions ran up a lot faster - 27% v 13% - for the last 5 years but the way I read AHGP's SEC form 10-K, they're now at the maximum 48% of ARLP's distributions on the incentive plan so from here on it looks like the distributions increase at the same pace. So, I'll just stay in ARLP; their future looks good.
6 Types Of Dividend Investment Strategies, Part I [View article]
Good article! Regarding your opening question, though, and as you know, if you hold a stock indefinitely it doesn't matter whether the return comes from the current yield [CY] or the growth rate of the dividend [DGR]. The overall return is simply the sum of the two. This is a version of the Gordon Growth Model which states that
Value [of the stock] = Dividend in $/ (required % return - dividend % growth rate)
Handling Your Emotions: Using Asset Allocation And Beta [View article]
I've seen 3 and 5 yr betas, and they differ. Seems longer would be better. I do my portfolio calculation based on a weighted overall average using market values.
Handling Your Emotions: Using Asset Allocation And Beta [View article]
I agree. I'm retired, but I withdraw only dividends and interest, never principal. I think even a standard 4 percent withdrawal is risky given that markets can remain down for a long time, and these days one could easily live to 90-100 years old.
'Show Me The Kwan, Jerry!' Cash Is King [View article]
You're right - great business, and great management. Note that when PM was spun off, Louis Camilleri chose to go with PM rather than remain with the US company, Altria. I think that's pretty telling of his views of the future.
Bank Of New York Mellon - Speculating A Triple Over Several Years [View article]
Thanks for your insightful comments. I agree that BK was different before the 2007 merger with Mellon. That's most easily seen, I think, in the key banking metric Return on Average Total Assets - before 2007 it was often in the 1.2% to 1.5% range. Currently it's still a good 1.09% [State Street, which you mention, is at 0.97%] but I expect it to stabilize just below 1%.
However, BK has never had EPS even approaching $3 a share whereas it looks like it will be well over that figure in a few years to the $3.25 area. Also, I know from experience that it takes several years, at least, for a major merger to be fully digested. In 2011 they will be about $2.18 which is the highest ever for BK [reached $2.03 in 2005, pre-merger]. So while different, in terms of EPS it looks like BK is now a more profitable bank than it ever has been before.
The S&P right now is at just 12.0 times estimated $105 EPS, so even if BK just gets back to the market average, 12 x $3.25 = $39 a share - roughly a double from where it is now. Because it's a global bank the Euro zone is having a huge perception impact, but I think BK has very limited downside, but very substantial upside. Time will tell, right?
SeaDrill: Q3 Results Continue To Impress, Still Likely To Beat Estimates [View article]
A note of caution: In my opinion, one should be careful of an investment in a company controlled by John Frederiksen [Chairman & President]. Research his background and record carefully.
Daimler? They resumed their dividend 6/2011 and now yield about 6%, and @ $39 the stock has long term legitimate 3x price potential to $125 based on 2016 cash flow. While a bit speculative with the price impacted by the Eurozone crisis, Daimler {DDAIF} is the world's largest manufacturer of commercial vehicles.
Baytex Energy Dividend Offers Growth And High Yield [View article]
A Quality Income Portfolio For 2012 [View article]
Alliance Resource: Strong Mid-Cap Income Holding In Core Industry [View article]
Alliance Resource: Strong Mid-Cap Income Holding In Core Industry [View article]
Alliance Resource: Strong Mid-Cap Income Holding In Core Industry [View article]
6 Types Of Dividend Investment Strategies, Part I [View article]
Value [of the stock] = Dividend in $/
(required % return - dividend % growth rate)
A related version is the Dividend Discount Model.
Handling Your Emotions: Using Asset Allocation And Beta [View article]
Handling Your Emotions: Using Asset Allocation And Beta [View article]
Handling Your Emotions: Using Asset Allocation And Beta [View article]
Handling Your Emotions: Using Asset Allocation And Beta [View article]
'Show Me The Kwan, Jerry!' Cash Is King [View article]
'Show Me The Kwan, Jerry!' Cash Is King [View article]
Bank Of New York Mellon - Speculating A Triple Over Several Years [View article]
However, BK has never had EPS even approaching $3 a share whereas it looks like it will be well over that figure in a few years to the $3.25 area. Also, I know from experience that it takes several years, at least, for a major merger to be fully digested. In 2011 they will be about $2.18 which is the highest ever for BK [reached $2.03 in 2005, pre-merger]. So while different, in terms of EPS it looks like BK is now a more profitable bank than it ever has been before.
The S&P right now is at just 12.0 times estimated $105 EPS, so even if BK just gets back to the market average, 12 x $3.25 = $39 a share - roughly a double from where it is now. Because it's a global bank the Euro zone is having a huge perception impact, but I think BK has very limited downside, but very substantial upside. Time will tell, right?
SeaDrill: Q3 Results Continue To Impress, Still Likely To Beat Estimates [View article]
5 High-Yield Eurozone Stocks [View article]