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Michael Cooper, CFA  

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  • Groupon's Lose-Lose Scenario [View article]
    It is surprising that the stock has levitated this long, but popular stocks can retain their overbought value for fustratingly lengthy periods. And for all the reasons you mention in your article, as well as some of the reasons I mentioned in my article, Groupon is overvalued.

    A friend of mine was recently on a trip in South America. The timing was bad as it was rainy season, however, family was visiting so it made sense to go on a little vacation. While at the empty resort, trying to stay dry, they ran into a couple who were surprised by the poor conditions of their vacation. Their vacation was cheap for a reason. The hotel was selling hard to move room inventory, through a Groupon discount. The hotel has now produced a poor experience for its customer, who will never return and the customer will probably think twice before thinking they are getting a bargain for nothing.
    Feb 9, 2012. 10:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Loncor: A Junior Gold Miner Poised For Huge Gains [View article]
    Loncor announced impressive drill results from its regional exploration program today with a 37.97 meter intersection of 2.66 g/t gold - all oxide which is relatively easy to mine. The drilling, down 91 meters folllows the trend of surface trench samples of 42 meters. So this oxide mineralization runs from surface to at least 100 meters and is open at depth.
    Jan 26, 2012. 10:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Loncor: A Junior Gold Miner Poised For Huge Gains [View article]
    Good comment Barry. It might also be noted that BAA and LON share some directors. When LON goes to production, BAA may be the logical candidate with their strength in the region if Newmont, which owns 17.8% of Loncor does not acquire the company.
    Jan 6, 2012. 03:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Newmont Mining: An Attractive Buy For Medium To Long-Term [View article]
    I also like the juniors as the discount to net asset value ('NAV') is far higher than the discount on the senior producers (juniors are trading around 30% of their NAV) whereas seniors have captured the majority of their NAV. If you like the discounts offered by the junior space and believe Newmont invests only in juniors with enormous future potential, look into Loncor Resources (TSX:LN)(AMEX:LON). Newmont owns 17.8% and has a rare technical services agreement with Loncor. Interesting company with very high grade gold intercepts.
    Jan 4, 2012. 04:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Groupon Generated 6,352% Returns For Private Shareholders [View article]
    Time4pizza. Groupon's model is to claim a percentage from the merchant's revenue - I believe a very healthy cut right now, but this is falling according to the evidence of their most recent gross margin performance. Its a very expensive model for the merchant. First the merchant sells their goods at a discount to entice the new customer in, then they give a healthy percentage of that discounted revenue over to Groupon. That seems like a recipe for disaster on the merchant's part.
    Jan 3, 2012. 12:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Groupon Generated 6,352% Returns For Private Shareholders [View article]
    Deja Vu. I had not considered the put options, as I am more of a straight equity guy, but I will look into them as they may be a great way to leverage this stock on the way down.
    Jan 3, 2012. 12:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Groupon Generated 6,352% Returns For Private Shareholders [View article]
    fxfx. Thanks for the comments on your use. I personally have never used or encountered the coupons as a consumer but your experience is absolutely the downfall many shop owners will probably experience in the short term. This is an old local industry (discount coupons) that functioned quite well on a small scale of bringing local customers to a local business. Now Groupon's volume can overwhelm the little guy and as you say, lead to bad service and bad branding.
    Jan 3, 2012. 12:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldcorp's Greenstone Gateway To Gold [View article]
    Great article Tom. And very interesting insight S. E. Wells. I am going to look into this further. Very encouraging for those of us investing in Greenstone belts.
    Dec 28, 2011. 11:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It Is Time To Swap Your Gold Bars For Gold Equities Like Banro Corporation [View article]
    Excellent article Devon. Banro's low cash costs will allow the stock price to move much higher without broaching overvalued ranges.
    Sep 16, 2011. 10:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Newmont Mining: A Long-Term Gold Stock With a Strong Dividend Yield [View article]
    One issue related to gold company under-performance versus the price of gold has been the price of oil. Oil can account for a very significant percentage of operating costs. (I have heard percentages as high as 40% of cash operating costs). If you build an excel income statement and P/E valuation chart on the large producing gold companies, and then strip out the cost component of oil, multiply your capitalized value of the oil (ie: P/NAV) and add this back to the value of the gold companies, I think you will see that gold companies have been gaining value faster than their share prices indicate. A substantial portion of the gains have been flowing to the oil producers in value terms. Now that oil is falling, and gold bullion continues to climb, we should see more of this value migrate to gold stocks.
    Aug 19, 2011. 11:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Newmont Mining: A Long-Term Gold Stock With a Strong Dividend Yield [View article]
    David. I agree this gold-price-linked dividend is just another progressive feature presented by Newmont's board. This looks to be a very investor friendly company.
    Aug 18, 2011. 01:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case for Africa in Your Portfolio [View article]
    Newmont Mining recently released its quarterly and 1/2 year results. Newmont mines gold and copper in North America, South America, Asia Pacific, Australia and Africa. Africa was the only region generating growing production in the quarter and 1H. Africa represented the lowest cash costs by a significant margin.
    Aug 4, 2011. 09:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case for Africa in Your Portfolio [View article]
    Excellent article Robert. In addition to "following the rising tide of population, GDP and income growth that Africa represents", astute investors may also look at some of the leading indicators that can guide their investments decisions. Specifically, we are looking at education, electrification rates and cell phone adoption, all areas where we are witnessing some surprising progress. The Republic of Congo, Mauritius and Cameroon for example have all produced dramatic increases in primary school enrollment up from just over 20% in 2000 to 50% on average in 2008 according to the African Development Bank April 2011 report. Burkina Faso reports approximately 75% enrollment in secondary school. This bodes very well for increased tertiary school enrollments which, according to the African Development Bank generates a 0.9 correlation with increases in the middle class status. Infrastructure development, including hydroelectric development generates a 0.8 correlation with increases in middle class.

    According to the World Trade Organization1, a 1% increase in mobile phone penetration results in approximately a 0.5% increase in real GDP in Africa. So when TeleGeography announced on June 21, 2011 that Airtel DRC has grown its cellular subscriber base by 40% in 18 months from 3.5 million subscribers to 5 million in June ‘11, we viewed this as a strong leading indicator of the continued progress for the economy of the DR Congo. Airtel maintains an estimated 60% of the DR Congo market which suggests an overall cell phone penetration rate of approximately 10% of the population. According to TeleGeography, Airtel has invested $400 million since December 2010 to expand its network with 49 new transmission towers.
    This continued economic development increases our confidence in the DR Congo and in our investments in our client companies Banro Corportion (TSX:BAA)(AMEX:BAA) and Loncor Resources (TSX-V:LN)(AMEX:LON).

    1 World Trade Organization November 2006 Report.

    For our disclaimers visit cfmonitor.com

    Michael R. Cooper, CFA
    Cooper Financial Research
    330 Bay Street Suite 820
    Toronto, Ontario
    M5H 2S8
    416-907-2195 office
    Jul 28, 2011. 05:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Randgold Resources: An African Gold Play [View article]


    June 29, 2011
    Since 2002 the S&P has delivered a 42% return, while Randgold Resources Ltd (Nasdaq:GOLD), one of the top performers in the African gold sector has delivered almost 2,500% return to shareholders by positioning as the first mover in the development of gold assets across Africa. With gold mining and development in DR Congo, Mali, Cote d’Ivoire and Senegal, Randgold has created a solid pipeline of new production and led shareholder wealth creation for those investors who were willing to gain exposure to Africa’s turnaround story. At $7.6 billion market cap, Randgold share price has taken a breather, and opened the door for Banro Corporation (TSX:BAA)(AMEX:BAA) to assume the leading role in African gold wealth creation.




    Banro Shares Outperform Randgold in Last 9 Months


    Since October 2010, 12 months prior to gold production, Banro Corporation has consistently outperformed Randgold, and could be well positioned to continue to outstrip Randgold as the gold play of Africa.





    Banro Shares Lead Today’s Surge Higher


    Now less than 4 months to production and with additional growth developing, Banro, continues to outperform Randgold.
    Banro is offering investors access to near-term gold production and significant organic growth to 500,000 oz per year over the mid-term. With Banro’s recent market cap per oz of $56 vs. Randgold’s $268 and Banro’s expected cash costs of $356 vs. Randgold’s cash costs of $580, we expect Banro to continue to outperform the long-term leader in the African gold sector. In spite of Banro overtaking Randgold on a relative basis, we expect strong upside potential for Randgold shareholders.




    Disclaimer: Cooper provides paid research and analytical services for mispriced publicly traded companies and investors including Loncor Resources Inc. and Banro Corporation. All editorial content and opinions are those of the author. We do not in any way offer investment advice or suggest buying or selling any securities mentioned. Cooper or affiliates of Cooper may buy, sell or own securities and derivatives of securities mentioned in this report or any other report we produce. Cooper is not responsible for any errors or omissions in this report. All statements, other than statements of historical fact are forward-looking information. Forward-looking information reflects our current beliefs and expectations for the company and is based on publicly available historical information. Our beliefs may change as market conditions, political conditions or company specific conditions change. Cooper is not responsible for any losses that may be incurred by investors who rely on this report or other reports. Please consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
    Michael Cooper, CFA
    Cooper Financial Research
    330 Bay Street Suite 820
    Toronto, Ontario
    M5H 2S8
    416-873-5319
    Jul 28, 2011. 04:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Junior Gold Miners Amount to 25% of My Speculative Portfolio [View article]
    Banro market cap is incorrectly reported in your chart above. As of today the market cap is over $800 million but should be north of $2 billion. Today Ashley Judd and Nascar great Jeff Gordon are tweeting to their 100,000 followers about their visit, along with the Clinton Global Initiative, to Banro's mine development. Stock is up to $4.30 today as Ashley is liking how Banro helps the locals as well as shareholders through developing the first large gold mine in the DR Congo in 50 years.
    Jul 20, 2011. 01:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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