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Michael Dever
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Founder, CEO & Director of Research for Brandywine Asset Management and author of "Jackass Investing: Don't do it. Profit from it." I have been a professional investor/trader since 1979 and have experience in stocks, managed futures, commodities, mutual fund arbitrage, market... More
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Brandywine Asset Management
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Mike Dever
My book:
Jackass Investing: Don't do it. Profit from it.
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  • What Makes Brandywine Unique

    Enhance Returns and Reduce Risk

    0.06 . . .

    That is the (non) correlation of monthly returns of the BTOP 50 managed futures index to Brandywine's Symphony Program.

    0.19 . . .

    That is the (non) correlation of monthly returns of the S&P 500 total return index to Brandywine's Symphony Program.

    Comparisons to other investment indexes, such as bonds, hedge funds or REITS show a similar characteristic. Put simply, Brandywine's Symphony Program produces performance that is uncorrelated to virtually all other investments. This low correlation means that adding Brandywine to a portfolio of CTAs, stocks, bonds, hedge funds or most any other investment will both enhance returns and reduce risk.

    What Makes Brandywine Unique

    From the start, we have stressed how Brandywine's return driver based investment methodology would produce uncorrelated returns. Investors understood that when they compared our diversified, multi-strategy approach to the "traditional" investments such as stocks and bonds, whose returns are dominated by just one or two return drivers. But because Brandywine is registered as a CTA, and trades pursuant to a systematic, diversified approach, many assumed we would be correlated to trend following CTAs.

    It has become unmistakable that Brandywine's Symphony Program is also unique among CTAs. A clear distinction is that we produce uncorrelated returns while trading systematically across a globally-diversified portfolio. Other uncorrelated CTAs achieve their non-correlation either by using discretion in their approach, focusing on specific markets, sectors or strategies (such as only employing short-term trading), or selling option premium. In contrast, Brandywine's diversification value to a portfolio comes from our use of dozens of distinct return drivers, not a specialized focus or use of day-to-day discretion. Although we are required to state that past performance is not indicative of future performance, we believe that this diversity of strategies and markets produces more consistent, sustainable and predictable returns than the other methods used to produce uncorrelated results.

    What's perhaps even more interesting is that Brandywine's various trading strategies are even uncorrelated with each other. The average correlation of monthly returns of each of Brandywine's strategies to the others in our portfolio is 0.00.

    What this means is that by including Brandywine's Symphony Program in a portfolio of CTAs, we can both increase overall returns and reduce risk. For example, during the period when the BTOP 50 index suffered a sustained 5% drawdown from the start of Brandywine's trading in 2011 through September 2013, Brandywine's Symphony Program gained more than 8%.

    Brandywine provides the same diversification value to equity investors. Although the S&P 500 has been on a tear since Brandywine's Symphony Program began trading in 2011, the S&P 500 did suffer one significant losing period during the third quarter of 2011. During that period, while the S&P 500 fell more than 18%, Brandywine gained more than 6%.

    We look forward to showing you how including Brandywine in your portfolio can enhance returns and reduce potential risk. The time to add Brandywine is now, while other investments are hitting new highs in performance.

    Mar 09 3:39 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Winning With Defense

    A record 120 million people watched the New England Patriots defeat the Seattle Seahawks in Sunday night's closely fought Super Bowl. While there were many highlights, it is the "2nd and goal" from the one yard line with 20 seconds left in the game that will forever be etched into the minds of Seahawks fans. Instead of handing the ball to star running back Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll called for a quick slant pass to Ricardo Lockette. It is often said that defense wins games, especially the big games like the Super Bowl, and Sunday night proved no exception. Instead of a game-winning touchdown (or at worst an incomplete pass that leads to a touchdown run by Lynch on third or fourth down), undrafted rookie safety Malcolm Butler intercepted the pass and ended Seattle's chance for a repeat Super Bowl win. One 'fatal' mistake resulted in the New England Patriots taking home the Super Bowl XLIX trophy.

    We repeat this play-by-play - at the risk of boring those 120 million people who watched the real game - because we'd like to stress the point that defense is perhaps even more important to successful investing than it is to winning football.

    Avoiding Disaster

    Brandywine's Symphony Program is currently in its largest drawdown to date, with a -13.94% peak-to-trough drop in value, and our aggressively-traded Brandywine Symphony Preferred is down more than 38%. While we would love to avoid all drawdowns, the key is to avoid disaster - the investing equivalent of a goal line interception. As we've discussed in many of these reports over the past few years, Brandywine attempts to constrain our drawdowns and improve our odds for a rapid recovery by creating a balanced portfolio that employs broad portfolio diversification across both trading strategies and markets. So, although our current drawdown is our largest, it is still within a manageable range.

    But while this balanced, diversified approach improves our probabilities of avoiding disasters, it can never eliminate drawdowns. The current drawdown, which began in September, is a great case in point. Over the past five months, global markets became much more correlated with each other, as the sharp rally in the dollar and the over-supply in the oil markets triggered a succession of related market moves in bonds and commodities. The majority of Brandywine's fundamental, sentiment and arbitrage-based trading strategies were on the wrong side of many of these moves - which is essentially the definition of what causes a drawdown. Despite this, our monthly losses have been better contained each month, as both the trading strategies and portfolio allocation model adapted to the changing market conditions. And because we have avoided disaster-sized losses, we are still "in the game" and able to apply the same game plan going forward as what made us successful in the three years leading up to our current drawdown.

    From the start of trading in Brandywine's Symphony Program in 2011, we have stressed how our systematic Return Driver based approach to trading, which includes a heavy dose of fundamental inputs, will produce returns that are uncorrelated to not only all conventional investments (such as stocks and bonds) but also to other futures traders. This is reflected in our non- correlation to the S&P 500 of 0.15 and even lower correlation to the BTOP 50 managed futures index of 0.09. A specific trade example of this non-correlation took place on January 15th, when the Swiss National Bank abandoned its support for their currency's peg to the Euro. The majority of trend followers were caught short and suffered losses on this move. In stark contrast, Brandywine's trading strategies recognized that despite sustained central bank intervention the Swiss Franc continued to rise against the Euro. As a result, Brandywine was net long the Swiss Franc and profited from its sharp advance on that day.

    "Stay the Course" or Modify the Game Plan?

    There is almost never second-guessing when a team is blowing away the competition or when an investment manager is minting money. The second-guessing only takes place when losses are incurred. While we at Brandywine have certainly scrutinized our performance closely over the course of our current drawdown, with an interest in identifying where and why the losses accrued, we are fortunate that our investment philosophy provides us the path to improvement, without the need to second guess. That is because our model was designed from the start to enable - actually require - us to develop and incorporate any additional trading strategies with the intent of further diversifying the sources of our returns. Also, as we continue to collect more real time trading and performance data, our portfolio allocation model will benefit by being able to use that information to improve the portfolio balance across both trading strategies and markets. While buying drawdowns is often difficult to do emotionally, we continue to believe that the current drawdown presents a great opportunity to initiate or add to an investment with Brandywine.

    Feb 06 11:37 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Analysis Of The Drawdown

    Originally published in the Brandywine Asset Management Monthly Report.

    Brandywine employs a wide variety of trading strategies, each systematically applied, to trade across more than 100 global financial and commodity markets. The intent of this broad strategy and market diversification is to enable more consistent performance across a range of market conditions. Brandywine's Symphony Program was able to accomplish this over our first three years of trading, earning consistent returns while managed futures traders suffered their longest drawdown on record. And when trend following futures traders did have positive periods, more often than not, so did Brandywine. We also posted profits during the most difficult stock market environments, such as the third quarter of 2011. So what made the past four months different?

    A number of Brandywine's trading strategies exploit extremes in market sentiment, pricing relationships between various markets and fundamental production data to enter into positions that are often independent of market trends. In the event trends develop that are contrary to those positions, Brandywine also employs momentum strategies designed not only to independently produce profits, but also to "hedge" that fundamental and sentiment exposure by offsetting a portion of those positions.

    As most of our investors and readers are well aware, the last half of 2014 contained some significant market trends, such as the collapse in the oil market and the relentless rise in the value of the dollar. These were ideal conditions for trend followers to profit, and at first Brandywine also benefitted along with them. During August 2014, a month when trend followers performed quite well, Brandywine's Symphony Program posted its second strongest month on record. But one person's sunrise can often be another person's hangover.

    Towards the end of August, those same market trends began to signal opportunities - based on logical return drivers and decades of historical testing - and trigger additional counter-trend positions in Brandywine's sentiment, fundamental & arbitrage-based strategies. As trends continued to move against those positions, our momentum hedges did help to balance the portfolio and offset a portion of those losses. The result was that the cumulative loss over the last three months of the year was only slightly greater than the single month loss in September.

    However, due to the number of strategies indicating those counter-trend positions and the allocations assigned to them by our portfolio allocation model, the aggregate position sizes indicated by all strategies remained counter to the prevailing trend over that period, which, by definition, created the losses.

    Going Forward

    Brandywine believes strongly in the value of true portfolio diversification and the benefit of maintaining balance - over time - across the strategies and markets in our portfolio. This belief is at the core of our portfolio allocation model and is designed to provide our investors with the best possible long-term risk-adjusted returns. While we continue to believe that it is the long-term that matters most, we understand the benefit in reducing short-term "pain" as well.

    Fortunately, there are ways for Brandywine to reduce the probability that future drawdowns will match or exceed the current drawdown, while still preserving our long-term performance. That is because, by design, Brandywine's research philosophy requires the regular evaluation of the validity of the return drivers underlying our current strategies and Brandywine's portfolio allocation model easily accommodates, and our belief in continuing improvement requires, the addition of new trading strategies into the portfolio. This is a process we've discussed numerous times in these reports over the past few years.

    So addressing the source of the current drawdown doesn't require an overhaul of our trading model or research process, but a continuation of the process already in place. We have been students of the markets now for more than 35 years and have developed a library of potential trading strategies based on our trading experience. We are especially focused now on an evaluation of the existing strategies that contributed to the drawdown, as well as the completion of the development of additional strategies designed to thrive on aggressively-trending markets.

    There is of course no way to protect against losses under all conditions. Every investment program has market environments where it is more likely to lose than to gain. And while Brandywine's Symphony Program has generally performed well across a variety of market conditions, the drawdown of the past four months has served to remind us of the need for continuous improvement. As always, we are committed to this process.

    Jan 08 3:22 PM | Link | Comment!
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