Michael Ferrari

Biofuels: The Next Generation

the research efforts referred to have nothing to do with food-for-fuel on the grains side...these are concenrated in sugarcane and synbio.

Reduced Yield Potential for U.S. Corn, Soybeans

Our forecast right now is for a short growing season. Not necessarily early frost, but still cool enough late season temps to shut down plant physiology and limit yield potential. The pain felt in grains markets for the current US crop us not over yet.

Grains Weather Outlook

it is a farm strike, as everyone from the Argentinian economy minister to the President has been discussing. Harvest proceeds, but when stocks are being held back from moving physicals to port, it is most certainly a strike.

Commodities: Lots of Upside Remains

agree on bullish outlook. but march wasn't sugar's all-time high, sugar traded above 18cents as recently as Jan06.

World Grain Markets at a Critical Point

@nick: agreed. but that has already been priced in for a little while now

World Grain Markets at a Critical Point

You both could not be more incorrect (at the point of being laughable). If you follow grains markets, or any other ag market daily, weather especially during this time of year does in fact drive the market every session. A breakdown of 10 regions is only scratching the surface - thorough analysis looks focuses on a least twice that amount, and usually much more. And while this column might be light (as if should be for this forum), but it is only a snapshot of the type of analysis that nearly all grains traders look at every day. Further, amatuerish statements like 'weather patterns (that affect crop development) are unpredictable' highlight the lack of knowledge about these markets and their drivers.

Can Food Companies Mitigate the Minefields of Rising Commodities?

The best performing food companies are, above all of the reasons cited above, those who actively and succesfully hedge their exposures in the underlying commodities. Cost avoidance resulting from smart hedging will dwarf savings from production and advertising cuts. margins in the food industry are and always have been thin, and prudent hedging often makes the difference between a cash positive and negative year.

All Commodities Extremely Overbought Except OJ

All commodities except OJ overbought?? Look at global stocks as well as S-U ratio in just about every agricultural commodity and put in historical context (meaning before March07).

Imminent Commodity Pullback Should Offer DBE Buy Opportunity

Most certainly overbought. There is no good reason, even with a weak dollar, weather impact and geopolitical premium built in, that oil should be at these levels. And look at the supply sector represented. All are in a healthy stock situation coming out of n.hem. winter - looking forward, demand will likely be what was expected for months, so we are not looking at unexpected demand increases through June. The supply outlook that is referenced is not looking years ahead, but months.

China Agritech Preparing to Bloom

don't know much about organic fertilizers - are they (organic) really that efficient vs. conventional fertilizers?