The percentage of bears in the Investors Intelligence poll declines to 18.8%. It's the first time below 20 since May 2011, and dips below 20 marked market tops in 2010 and 2011, notes a usually bullish Ryan Detrick. "Be aware." [View news story]
bbro -- yes selloffs did occur -- here are the periods for the SPX - March to August 2004, April to May 2005, October 2005, May 2006, February 2007, and then June through July 2007. I'm sure if you check the same periods for the DJIA, NDX, and Russell you will find they also experienced sell offs --
Oh, BTW --Currently, I don't believe the broader indexes have seen the highs yet.
After Mark Hurd resigned as H-P's (HPQ) CEO in 2010, Steve Jobs told Hurd and other friends he feared H-P's board would now "send the company spiraling into chaos," according to BloombergBusinessweek. As Jobs' fears have arguably been realized, many inside H-P have accused Hurd of mortgaging H-P's future. But while some of those critiques may be valid, "they fail to capture why HP’s prospects got so much worse so quickly after Hurd left," the magazine notes The constant through it all has been chairman Ray Lane, accused at times of filling H-P's oft-criticized board with cronies. [View news story]
Spanish Auction Confirms Euro Bull Market For 2013 [View article]
Tom -- thanks for another great article -- as an analyst I appreciate your insight and depth on inflation, gold, silver, US Bonds, and ECB Bonds -- of course it helps to stand in total agreement as well! Next week should be very revealing as to the various cycles now coming into play. I agree with your analysis on the EUR and the 140 level has returned to the realm of reality.
Tom - great article - well researched. Thanks for presenting many over looked facts regarding silver's monetary implications with respect to gold dominance there. As a technical analyst I have been tracking a corrective pattern in both gold and silver off of the 2011 highs. In gold that pattern has been a "triangle" (classic Elliott pattern btw) which stands a high probability of being complete or nearly so. Silver while also tracing a range bound pattern may also have completed the correction with the next rally phase in its beginning stages.
The inflationary factors that will ultimately burst the remaining economic bubbles (US $ and Bonds) should remain beneficial in pushing precious metals prices higher -- I also stand in agreement with your "initial" targets of $2000+ in gold and $50+ in silver for 2013.
I look forward to reading additional research from you.
A Grand Bargain: 8 Factors That Could Drive A Surprise On The Deficit [View article]
James -- thanks for a well written, well researched and thought provoking article. As the country and DC players emerge from their prospective "bubbles" and increase their anti-depression meds it would be with great expectation that the country awaits their response to the impending "jumping off the cliff" scenario so clearly defined by many.
I appreciate your take on this subject and more objective and in line with your longer term work. Thank you.
George -- thanks for a good article -- after spending the past 2 months on vacation- and free of the market "summer doldrums" - although I admit to scanning SA to feed my info junkie side - your article was the perfect read! I particularly enjoyed your comparison of the S&P 1 and AAPL (very appropriate I might add) --
I look forward to reading more of your work in the future as I add my name to your "followers" list.
U.S. Stock Market Complacency On Verge Of Collapse [View article]
Excellent article James -- I appreciate your willingness to continue to step out and present a clear and important message - one that seems to be lost by so many who don't seem to see the status quo changing right in front of them.
Is The Financial Sector Under Siege? - Financial Giants Vs. The Dodd Frank Act [View article]
Paul,
HFT trading is huge and provides much of the liquidity within many issues traded on listed exchanges. Computerized trading has become an integral part of how trading takes place these days. As a result the status quo is changing. I have found that most people do not want to hear that the status quo is changing or that a trend change is taking place right in front of them. Why - I suppose there are as many reasons as there are people. In any case my premise is that the status quo is changing and as I quoted "it can not be vetoed". I also have studied cycles on a long, mid, and short-term basis. To deny their existence does not eliminate their happening.
I found your question fascinating - "if you think human beings have any use, or if our time on earth is rapidly coming to an end?" As a person of faith I would have to answer yes to human beings having a use for correct information - I believe that fear (false evidence appearing real) is conquered through educating oneself - being prepared for rather than succumbing to negative thought or actions releases us from the grip of panic and often allows us to be in it - but not of it. I hope that makes sense. To answer the second part of your question I do not think out time on earth is rapidly coming to an end -- for some I'm sure it feels that way and might even be misinterpreted as "the way out" - but it ultimately isn't. The global economies will right themselves - however not without much pain and confusion. I prefer though to be prepared (not surprised) and accept what it may bring and move on.
Is The Financial Sector Under Siege? - Financial Giants Vs. The Dodd Frank Act [View article]
Paul --
Thanks for your additional thoughts on NYX -- I do stand in agreement with what you've presented! In fact, your analogy regarding "eating lunch" was perfect as was "eating cake".
Thank you for you honest response - it is always a pleasure to have an open dialogue with others who also "do their homework".
Is The Financial Sector Under Siege? - Financial Giants Vs. The Dodd Frank Act [View article]
Paul --
Thanks for your comments. I am always interested in hearing what others think or see.
I found your use of the word "terrorism" and doomsday scenario incorrect. It is interesting the labels that get used to invoke fear.
Your statement on the NYX is very true -- but let me pose a question to you - since the NYX is the world's most liquid equities (I question your claim that the NYX also is the most liquid derivatives exchange group - I believe that honor may go to the CME) - in any case -- you are correct the NYX provides clearing and exchange services - and fees are collected on every share or contract that is traded - both from the buyer and the seller - add to that clearing charges - membership fees etc. One would think that the NYX would have participated more robustly off of the 2009 lows. Similar I would think as the DJIA, S&P 500, RUT 2000 or the NASDAQ 100 -- but it hasn't. Why do you think that is?
Your statement regarding government regulation posing risk to market share and operating leverage of the company is in my humble opinion "way off base" -- while the government may impose the regulation - in all fairness it should be included that it was the government that deregulated the markets - the responsibility to enforce compliance should come from regulatory agencies such as the CFTC.
In giving me a jump start -you quote a March 2012 report from S&P restating the obvious revenue generators at the NYX. So again I'll ask you -- if this is the case, which I believe it is in terms of generating revenue. Why is the stock not trading back at the highs seen in 2007? Why has NYX recovered less than 38% of the 2008 - 2009 decline?
I also appreciate you stating your NYX position. May I ask where your stop is?
Again, thank you for contributing to the conversation -- I look forward to your response should you choose to.
Commodity Chart Of The Day: Natural Gas [View article]
I also agree -- with both Matt and Whitehawk -- volatility will keep "dips" sharp and quick -- short covering may provide upward momentum for a while - if you like trading volatility NG should provide some awesome opportunities -- I tend to turn to UNG to trade --
The percentage of bears in the Investors Intelligence poll declines to 18.8%. It's the first time below 20 since May 2011, and dips below 20 marked market tops in 2010 and 2011, notes a usually bullish Ryan Detrick. "Be aware." [View news story]
Oh, BTW --Currently, I don't believe the broader indexes have seen the highs yet.
After Mark Hurd resigned as H-P's (HPQ) CEO in 2010, Steve Jobs told Hurd and other friends he feared H-P's board would now "send the company spiraling into chaos," according to BloombergBusinessweek. As Jobs' fears have arguably been realized, many inside H-P have accused Hurd of mortgaging H-P's future. But while some of those critiques may be valid, "they fail to capture why HP’s prospects got so much worse so quickly after Hurd left," the magazine notes The constant through it all has been chairman Ray Lane, accused at times of filling H-P's oft-criticized board with cronies. [View news story]
Spanish Auction Confirms Euro Bull Market For 2013 [View article]
Silver Is Not Quite Ready To Rally [View article]
The inflationary factors that will ultimately burst the remaining economic bubbles (US $ and Bonds) should remain beneficial in pushing precious metals prices higher -- I also stand in agreement with your "initial" targets of $2000+ in gold and $50+ in silver for 2013.
I look forward to reading additional research from you.
Michael
A Grand Bargain: 8 Factors That Could Drive A Surprise On The Deficit [View article]
I appreciate your take on this subject and more objective and in line with your longer term work. Thank you.
Commodity Chart Of The Day: Silver [View article]
The Risk Of 'Buy And Hold Forever' Investing [View article]
" The job then becomes monitoring the names owned and being on the lookout for serious changes which can include grossly excessive valuations."
Thanks --
Michael
50 Shades Of Stock Market Grey [View article]
Kicking The Can Down The Cliff [View article]
I look forward to reading more of your work in the future as I add my name to your "followers" list.
Michael
U.S. Stock Market Complacency On Verge Of Collapse [View article]
Is The Financial Sector Under Siege? - Financial Giants Vs. The Dodd Frank Act [View article]
HFT trading is huge and provides much of the liquidity within many issues traded on listed exchanges. Computerized trading has become an integral part of how trading takes place these days. As a result the status quo is changing. I have found that most people do not want to hear that the status quo is changing or that a trend change is taking place right in front of them. Why - I suppose there are as many reasons as there are people. In any case my premise is that the status quo is changing and as I quoted "it can not be vetoed". I also have studied cycles on a long, mid, and short-term basis. To deny their existence does not eliminate their happening.
I found your question fascinating - "if you think human beings have any use, or if our time on earth is rapidly coming to an end?" As a person of faith I would have to answer yes to human beings having a use for correct information - I believe that fear (false evidence appearing real) is conquered through educating oneself - being prepared for rather than succumbing to negative thought or actions releases us from the grip of panic and often allows us to be in it - but not of it. I hope that makes sense. To answer the second part of your question I do not think out time on earth is rapidly coming to an end -- for some I'm sure it feels that way and might even be misinterpreted as "the way out" - but it ultimately isn't. The global economies will right themselves - however not without much pain and confusion. I prefer though to be prepared (not surprised) and accept what it may bring and move on.
Is The Financial Sector Under Siege? - Financial Giants Vs. The Dodd Frank Act [View article]
Thanks for your additional thoughts on NYX -- I do stand in agreement with what you've presented! In fact, your analogy regarding "eating lunch" was perfect as was "eating cake".
Thank you for you honest response - it is always a pleasure to have an open dialogue with others who also "do their homework".
Michael
Is The Financial Sector Under Siege? - Financial Giants Vs. The Dodd Frank Act [View article]
Thanks for your comments. I am always interested in hearing what others think or see.
I found your use of the word "terrorism" and doomsday scenario incorrect. It is interesting the labels that get used to invoke fear.
Your statement on the NYX is very true -- but let me pose a question to you - since the NYX is the world's most liquid equities (I question your claim that the NYX also is the most liquid derivatives exchange group - I believe that honor may go to the CME) - in any case -- you are correct the NYX provides clearing and exchange services - and fees are collected on every share or contract that is traded - both from the buyer and the seller - add to that clearing charges - membership fees etc. One would think that the NYX would have participated more robustly off of the 2009 lows. Similar I would think as the DJIA, S&P 500, RUT 2000 or the NASDAQ 100 -- but it hasn't. Why do you think that is?
Your statement regarding government regulation posing risk to market share and operating leverage of the company is in my humble opinion "way off base" -- while the government may impose the regulation - in all fairness it should be included that it was the government that deregulated the markets - the responsibility to enforce compliance should come from regulatory agencies such as the CFTC.
In giving me a jump start -you quote a March 2012 report from S&P restating the obvious revenue generators at the NYX. So again I'll ask you -- if this is the case, which I believe it is in terms of generating revenue. Why is the stock not trading back at the highs seen in 2007? Why has NYX recovered less than 38% of the 2008 - 2009 decline?
I also appreciate you stating your NYX position. May I ask where your stop is?
Again, thank you for contributing to the conversation -- I look forward to your response should you choose to.
Michael
Commodity Chart Of The Day: Natural Gas [View article]
Is The Financial Sector Under Siege? - Financial Giants Vs. The Dodd Frank Act [View article]
Michael