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Michael Filloon  

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  • Bakken Update: Whiting's Extensive Refrac Inventory May Provide Significant Upside
    Wed, Apr. 8 WLL 57 Comments

    Summary

    • Whiting's refrac inventory in Sanish Field is significant and could provide excellent economics using newer completion techniques.
    • If refracced, Brehm 13-7H may payback as soon as 6 months at a realized oil price of $50/bbl.
    • In just the Sanish Field, Whiting's refrac inventory could be as high as 313 wells.
    • Results could even be better if we use EOG's current well results as a guide.
  • Bakken Update: U.S. Crude Storage Capacity Is Filling Up, So Oil May Be Headed Below $40/Bbl
    Wed, Feb. 18 BNO, CXO, DVN 26 Comments

    Summary

    • The recent rise in the price of WTI may be short-lived, as U.S. production continues to increase the country's oil inventories.
    • The oil markets are still in contango, and until the market returns to backwardation, we will continue to see downward pressure on oil prices.
    • A large percentage of production decreases have come from mechanical rigs, which produce a much lower production per rig than AC-driven units.
    • Core areas' breakeven prices are below $40/bbl. These areas will continue to produce well, especially as operators work through their hedges in the first half of the year.
  • Bakken Update: Bakken Operators May Get $1 Billion Tax Break
    Mon, Feb. 9 AMZG, AXAS, CLR 17 Comments

    Summary

    • A North Dakota tax trigger implemented in 1987 may save Bakken operators $1B in 2015 production taxes.
    • If the tax break is triggered, North Dakota's production tax rate falls from 11.5% to 5% for 5 months regardless of the price of oil.
    • Back in April, the North Dakota legislature voted down a flat tax that would have replaced the current triggers.
  • Bakken Update: 2015 Oil Prices Are Key To Bakken Rig Movement
    Editors' Pick • Mon, Jan. 19 AMZG, AXAS, CLR 56 Comments

    Summary

    • We are starting to see rig cancellation and movement in the Bakken in response to the fall in oil prices.
    • We believe rigs will move closer to the Nesson Anticline, as this area may be the only viable area at today's realized oil prices.
    • Operators plan to cut costs by focusing on pad development, as this decreases drilling and completion costs.
  • Bakken Update: Oil Prices In 2015
    Tue, Jan. 6 AXAS, CLR, COP 42 Comments

    Summary

    • Operators continue to decrease 2015 cap ex, but still are increasing production year over year.
    • Oil prices may continue to head lower as operators continue to increase production.
    • Rigs will be moved to better producing areas, improving production at roughly the same well costs.
  • Bakken Update: Continental Resources' Well Results Around 2 Major Well Pads Not Currently Economic
    Dec. 29, 2014 CLR 22 Comments

    Summary

    • Burke County well results have been very poor outside of the Nesson Anticline, with most areas not economic at $100/bbl WTI and 18 month payback.
    • Two of CLR's largest well pads were located on Burke's Nesson Anticline. Excluding a couple of monster wells, these locations require much higher oil prices.
    • Economics improve significantly the further south locations are down the Nesson Anticline. Well pressures are much lower in Burke.
    • We continue to believe rigs will move out of Burke, Divide, Billings and Stark counties.
    • Better locations can be found in SE Williams, NE McKenzie, SW Mountrial and NW Dunn counties.
  • Bakken Update: American Eagle's Well Results Spell Significant Issues If Oil Prices Don't Rebound Soon
    Dec. 22, 2014 AMZG 30 Comments

    Summary

    • Divide County wells are lower pressured, providing poor initial production rates.
    • AMZG has issues as all of its acreage is in Divide County, it does not have better acreage to focus on until oil prices improve.
    • At $75/bbl. NYMEX, Divide County wells pay back in five years, much longer than deemed acceptable by operators.
    • North Divide is lacking infrastructure and has high LOEs.
  • Bakken Update: Poor SW Williams County Results Have Caused Oasis To Move Rigs
    Dec. 14, 2014 OAS 54 Comments

    Summary

    • Southwest Williams County may not be economic at today's oil price, adversely affecting the operators.
    • The lower oil price caused Oasis to cut 2015 Capex and move rigs to Indian Hills Field.
    • Oasis wells have underperformed both EOG and STO in SW Williams.
    • Oasis may have more exposure to reserve writedowns given its acreage position.
  • Bakken Update: EOG Antelope Well Has One-Year Payback At $50/Bbl WTI
    Dec. 3, 2014 EOG 68 Comments

    Summary

    • EOG continues to be the top US shale operator in the United States.
    • In its core acreage, EOG wells still provide excellent returns at today's realized oil prices.
    • Improvements of well design have been significant even in timeframes as short as one year.
  • Bakken Update: The Majority Of Oasis' Acreage Isn't Economic At Today's Oil Price
    Dec. 1, 2014 OAS 29 Comments

    Summary

    • OPEC's failure to cut production could push Bakken light realized prices below economic levels in the majority of Oasis acreage.
    • The influx of oil may widen the Bakken/WTI differentials, decreasing realized prices further.
    • We expect Oasis may cut 2015 cap-ex and move rigs to its core acreage.
  • Bakken Update: Halcon May Struggle To Find Economic Wells In 2015
    Nov. 24, 2014 HK 41 Comments

    Summary

    • El Halcon and its western ND acreage well economics are in question at today's realized oil prices.
    • Its recent cap ex cut may just be the beginning as decreases development outside the Bakken core.
    • Poor results in the TMS have put the play on hold in 2015.
  • Bakken Update: 2015 May Be A Difficult Year For This Bakken Non-Operator
    Nov. 19, 2014 NOG 91 Comments

    Summary

    • Lower WTI prices and widening Bakken light differentials provide for difficult economics for NOG in 2015.
    • Lack of operational control may lead to more downside than other small cap Bakken operators.
    • Bakken capex reductions may continue to affect 2015.
  • Bakken Update: Emerald Payback Times Point To A Long Winter In The Bakken
    Nov. 12, 2014 EOX 80 Comments

    Summary

    • Lower realized oil prices are further compounded in the Bakken, given the $10 to $11 differential to WTI.
    • Margins continue to get squeezed in western McKenzie County, where well costs are high and fewer locations are seen/section.
    • At Emerald's core acreage, it is not able to move rigs to higher IRR areas.
    • Emerald may be forced to lower capex and slow development until price improvement is seen.
  • Bakken Update: Greenbrier's Pullback Has Provided A Buying Opportunity
    Editors' Pick • Oct. 13, 2014 GBX 35 Comments

    Summary

    • Greenbrier's stock price has pulled back 31% from its 52-week high.
    • 8% of all US crude production is transported by rail.
    • There is significant upside to tank car retrofits and phase outs.
    • Railroads and tank car manufacturers may be somewhat insulated to a temporary pullback of oil prices.
    • The rails have been a better fit to transport crude as set-up times and costs are lower than pipelines.
  • Bakken Update: Analysts Have This Recent Permian IPO Growing 88% In 2015
       • Sep. 9, 2014 PE 36 Comments

    Summary

    • Parsley starts off with an excellent Q2, beating EPS by 56% and Revenues by over 6%.
    • Parsley's core northern Upton acreage is one of the better areas in the Midland Basin.
    • Its Reagan County acquisition has very thick Wolfcamp intervals providing possible upside to the number of wells/section.
    • The Midland Basin has 3000 to 4000 feet from 12 prospective intervals, which may be the best horizontal play in the U.S.
    • Parsley May Grow Faster Than All Of The Pure Play Midland Basin Small Caps.
  • Bakken Update: Diamondback Has 28% Upside
    Editors' Pick • Aug. 27, 2014 FANG 42 Comments

    Summary

    • FANG still has significant downspacing to perform with 11 possible intervals to target horizontally.
    • Production is growing fast, bolstered by acquisitions and improved well design.
    • Its acreage is well-suited to pad production, as this area could have some of the tightest spacing in the country.
    • The recent pullback in realized oil prices could be an issue, as expectations are for an inventory build at Cushing.
    • FANG continues to be a top operator in the Midland Basin with very good production rates.
  • Bakken Update: Basic Energy Continues To Excel, Levered To Fraccing
       • Jul. 22, 2014 BAS 24 Comments

    Summary

    • Basic is levered to the Permian Basin, which may be the top play going forward.
    • We believe oil service names levered to completions work will see the largest demand going forward.
    • Basic is an attractive take over target, as it would be a quick and easy way to add hydraulic horsepower.
  • Bakken Update: Carrizo Continues To Outpace In The Eagle Ford And Ready To Sell In The Niobrara
       • Jul. 22, 2014 CRZO 15 Comments

    Summary

    • Carrizo outperforms in the Eagle Ford with downspacing upside.
    • Its Utica acreage has the most upside and seems to be in the sweet spot.
    • It's ready to sell both the Niobrara and Marcellus, redirecting those dollars to other plays.
  • Bakken Update: Matador's New Frac Design Heads To The Permian
       • Jun. 24, 2014 MTDR 27 Comments

    Summary

    • Matador's secondary offering may have been a positive, as it has enough cash to operate through 2014.
    • Management continues to make good decisions, adding acreage in the Permian.
    • The completion of its equity offering funds Matador's 2014 D&C program.
    • Matador continues to beat production estimates, and may be at the top end of its 2014 EBITDA guidance.
  • Bakken Update: Permian Pure Play Athlon Has Howard County Upside
       • Jun. 17, 2014 ATHL 28 Comments

    Summary

    • ATHL's largest leasehold is in Howard County, which may have the most Midland Basin upside.
    • ATHL is a proven vertically focused driller and this has translated to top notch horizontal results.
    • ATHL's acquisition of +23000 net acres in the Midland Basin for $873 MM was well received.
  • Bakken Update: Merger Creates Bakken And Eagle Ford-Focused Small Cap
       • Jun. 11, 2014 ESTE 11 Comments

    Summary

    • The Earthstone/Oak Valley strategic combination adds value through proven operated management.
    • Oak Valley adds operated Eagle Ford acreage to Earthstone's Bakken footprint.
    • The added Oak Valley liquidity can be used to start a Bakken operated program.
  • Bakken Update: Bonanza Creek Is Up Over 20%, More Potential Ahead
       • May. 28, 2014 BCEI 12 Comments

    Summary

    • Doubles Acreage At A Very Good Price.
    • Substantial Increase Of Inventory.
    • Downspacing Results Are Very Positive.
    • Production rate improvement.
    • Credit Suisse raises price target raised to $66/share.
  • BakkenUpdate: Rex Energy Blows By Q1 Analyst Estimates On Its Way To $30/Share
    May. 14, 2014 REXX 75 Comments

    Summary

    • Beats Q1 EPS Estimates By 57%.
    • Benefits From Strong Propane Prices From Bitterly Cold Winter.
    • If Bluestone II Plant Startup Is On Time, We Believe REXX May Up Its Production Guidance.
  • Bakken Update: Triangle Petroleum May Have 43% Upside In 2014
       • Apr. 15, 2014 TPLM 30 Comments

    Summary

    • Northland Capital's $14 price target provides 43% upside for Triangle over the next year.
    • Triangle continues to improve IP rates in the Bakken through better well design.
    • Rockpile responds to good third party growth rates with an additional frac spread and the start of a wireline business.
    • Once online, Caliber's natural gas processing facility could drive midstream revenues.
  • Bakken Update: Recent Kodiak Completions Model 1000+ MBoe
    Apr. 4, 2014 KOG 33 Comments

    Summary

    • In Dunn County and Polar prospect, recent Kodiak wells model EURs of 1000 MBoe.
    • Kodiak continues to increase CapEx in Polar prospect, as it may be one of the best areas for pad drilling in the Bakken.
    • In better areas, Kodiak wells have a 12-month payback.
  • Bakken Update: Emerald Oil Continues To Focus On Production, But Costs Are A Killer
    Mar. 17, 2014 EOX 17 Comments

    Summary

    • Big bottom line miss is attributed to difficult weather conditions, and the inability to start putting infrastructure in place.
    • Slickwater fracs continue to impress, as Emerald continues to increase recoveries per well.
    • Emerald maintains its 2014 cap ex and production guidance.
    • Costs could be a concern in 2014. Keep a close watch on liquidity.
  • Bakken Update: Small Cap Bakken Operator Is Up 30% Since My Call, Has 30% To Go
    Mar. 17, 2014 AXAS 16 Comments

    Summary

    • Stock is up 30% since my call in August of 2013.
    • Global Hunter Securities has upgraded Abraxas to a $4.50 price target. A 30% increase from today's price.
    • It has cleaned up its balance sheet, decreasing debt and adding operated acreage.
    • Abraxas continues to have great well results in the Eagle Ford and Bakken. Better than other operators in the area.
  • Bakken Update: 2014 Oil And Gas Stock Pick Is Up 21% Since The First Of The Year
    Mar. 11, 2014 BCEI 12 Comments

    Summary

    • Wattenberg could be the play of 2014. 32 well per section spacing, low well costs, and improving well results are bullish these names.
    • Extended reach laterals are performing much better than expected. By doubling lateral lengths, operators are improving production results by 300%.
    • Current differentials are historically high at approximately $17/Bbl. By year end, expectations are a return to historical averages of $8/Bbl.
    • High line pressures have eased some with the O'Connor plant. Additional capacity will be added this month.
    • Two upcoming tests in the North Park Basin could prove bullish.
  • Bakken Update: Frac Sand Pricing Could Go Parabolic In Q3 2014
       • Mar. 5, 2014 SLCA 90 Comments
  • The Bakken Update: U.S. Oil Production Is The Reason For The Tank Railcar Renaissance
    Editors' Pick • Feb. 24, 2014 ARII 20 Comments
  • Matador's Recent Streak Should Continue
       • Feb. 18, 2014 MTDR 4 Comments
  • The Bakken Update's 2014 Stock Picks: Small Operator's Well Design Outperforms In North Dakota
       • Feb. 16, 2014 EOX 92 Comments