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Michael Filloon

 
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  • Bakken Update: Emerald Payback Times Point To A Long Winter In The Bakken [View article]
    Notaspeculator,

    Sorry you didn't find the article helpful, but if you look back through some of my older articles, you may find more on Bakken geology and the core areas. I can guarantee you one thing and that is EOX has no acreage anywhere near the core, nor do they produce anywhere near as well. If you want to compare well results I have done a large number of articles on this subject and you can compare those results if you would like. One thing about those comparisons, you will find EOXs results are not on par, and they are probably going to have difficulties going forward.
    As for the infrastructure, trucks, transport, etc. you were looking for, you will just have to find that stuff on your own. We provide info about oil and gas names to help investors make informed decisions, we do not do articles for people on request. The LOEs give an idea of operator costs and that is mostly what we are interested in right now (along with other costs which we monitor), but find no need to get that specific. You could go to the NDIC and look at gas sold versus produced, may give you a better idea. As for depletion, that is already figured into the data provided above. We use to think depletion was a big deal (and it can be) but there is very little depletion tells us when we already have production numbers from one and two years out. As a general rule, the best wells deplete the most as sky high IP rate generally have higher well pressures which deplete faster than wells that don't produce as well. When we study depletion further out, we find that initial depletion can be a good thing as results are generally better with higher levels of depletion because this means initial production is higher earlier. Depletion will make no difference in how many wells EOX can drill as none of their wells are economic right now. If you are looking for financials for EOX, all you have to do it go to http://yhoo.it/1rlGHlB
    We don't copy financials onto our articles as those are readily available to anyone that wants to check them out.
    shaletrader.com
    Dec 25, 2014. 06:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: American Eagle's Well Results Spell Significant Issues If Oil Prices Don't Rebound Soon [View article]
    Pablomike,

    That's awesome buddy! Im really happy for you. Must have been a long wait.
    Dec 25, 2014. 11:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: American Eagle's Well Results Spell Significant Issues If Oil Prices Don't Rebound Soon [View article]
    Merry Christmas Everyone! Take some time to be thankful for what really matters. Faith, Family and Friends
    Dec 24, 2014. 11:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: 2015 May Be A Difficult Year For This Bakken Non-Operator [View article]
    Thanks Randal,

    Merry Christmas to you and yours as well!
    Dec 24, 2014. 11:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: 2015 May Be A Difficult Year For This Bakken Non-Operator [View article]
    Aricool,

    Good point, thanks for the question. It is much more important for an operator to produce all of their hedged production not just based on today but also tomorrow. We have estimates all over the place as to realized prices needed to get wells producing in the Bakken, Permian, etc, and everyone knows these numbers can be fudged some as to costs or more importantly how quickly an operator really thinks it needs to be paid back. What they don't talk a lot about is what costs are once a well pays back. These are estimates that get thrown around (so take with a grain of salt but once wells payback it costs just $10/bbl to $20/bbl. for these wells to produce. So hedged production is extremely important as it allows some wells to get up and running, and hopefully payback in a somewhat quick time frame so they can become income producers.
    The oil business is in the here and now, and because of this most of my comments/concerns only deal with that I don't like the idea of buying a company based on maybe. When we look at operators we try to stay with what we consider to be best in breed. Right now we don't think NOG is it, but then again we are really in love with non-operators. That's not to say that NOG wont do well, or that we are wrong, just that it doesn't fit what we look for in an investment.
    Dec 24, 2014. 01:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Emerald Payback Times Point To A Long Winter In The Bakken [View article]
    Aricool,

    Safety First!
    I don't think Chris still has it up on his site. I think they keep them for about a week. We have it up on Shaletrader, let me see if I can get a copy sent to you.
    Dec 24, 2014. 12:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: American Eagle's Well Results Spell Significant Issues If Oil Prices Don't Rebound Soon [View article]
    GHOST,

    Thanks for that one, needed the laugh :)
    Dec 24, 2014. 12:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: American Eagle's Well Results Spell Significant Issues If Oil Prices Don't Rebound Soon [View article]
    noreaster,

    I don't have an exact number for how much gas is being flared but it is a very large number. Not a lot of pipe in the ground up here, and even if there was there is still issues with plant capacity.
    Dec 24, 2014. 12:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: American Eagle's Well Results Spell Significant Issues If Oil Prices Don't Rebound Soon [View article]
    Pablomike,

    I backed out LOEs and production taxes.
    Dec 24, 2014. 12:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Poor SW Williams County Results Have Caused Oasis To Move Rigs [View article]
    BNC,

    Thank you, and good luck to you as well! Hope you and your family have a wonderful Holiday!
    Dec 23, 2014. 12:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: American Eagle's Well Results Spell Significant Issues If Oil Prices Don't Rebound Soon [View article]
    awayk,

    I think we will see some areas go, but this specific area is a tough one. When the geology is compared to other areas it isn't a great area, but low well costs make it a little more appealing. There are going to be better areas (and companies) out there to be bought. Anything is possible, but right now there are several levered names out there that look better from a buyout standpoint.
    Dec 23, 2014. 12:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Poor SW Williams County Results Have Caused Oasis To Move Rigs [View article]
    Aricool,

    Artificial lift will help, but the well pressures I am speaking of is that first initial flood of oil that pushes out of the well head right when production begins. Its kindof like opening a pop bottle. The first time it is opened there is a ton of pressure but after its been opened internal pressures aren't as great. To your point, artificial lift would work just fine in keeping it flowing we just wouldn't see a typical IP rate (I wouldn't guess) but would think it would be easy to justify at $1 million per completion.
    Dec 22, 2014. 09:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Poor SW Williams County Results Have Caused Oasis To Move Rigs [View article]
    Aricool,

    Both WLL and CLR are in big trouble in my opinion but right now I am a big oil bear (and could be wrong) just based on what it will take to curb enough production to get us over the 2 million/d glut in oil.
    The oil service market has tightened up a lot in 2H15. I think a lot of work was already contracted out for much of 1H15 so some operators will still get some deals but I think 2H15 we see a steep drop in pricing. We should get a good feel for what is going on at the end of 2Q15 or beginning of 3Q15, unless we find production keeps pushing forward in the US
    Dec 22, 2014. 09:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Poor SW Williams County Results Have Caused Oasis To Move Rigs [View article]
    GHOST, Pablo, OXBORO:

    Yes the move to re-frac 2012 wells is intriguing as it looks like EOG believes it can begin a new development program that needs only a fraction of the investment to possibly produce a significant amount of resource. There are a few reasons to be skeptical of this working (but since it is EOG we will give them the benefit of the doubt) as wells are already drilled and well pressures will be much lower. This means as much resource wont get pushed up and out of the wellbore. Another issue is what Pablomike was talking about, and 2012 wells were already starting to see some of the better fracs close to the wellbore that EOG has been so successful with. I would be more interested in wells completed in Parshall field back in 2006.

    The main question is will it work? I think so, and the main reason is their newer sand heavy fracs that use about one million pounds of sand per 1000 feet of lateral. These fracs have improved results by anywhere from 50% to over 100% with respect to barrels of crude recovered over the first year. If EOG is planning to use this frac design for its re-fracs it may produce excellent results when you consider an investment of just $1 million. Re-fracs to date haven't produced exceptional results, but if EOG is going to use its more intensive fracs it could be interesting.
    Dec 21, 2014. 04:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Poor SW Williams County Results Have Caused Oasis To Move Rigs [View article]
    GHOST,

    Been lots of talk about that in the State. It will be interesting to see if the Government decides to repeal it.
    Dec 20, 2014. 09:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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