Seeking Alpha

Michael Filloon

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Michael Filloon's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Bakken Update: Poor SW Williams County Results Have Caused Oasis To Move Rigs [View article]
    Aricool,

    Artificial lift will help, but the well pressures I am speaking of is that first initial flood of oil that pushes out of the well head right when production begins. Its kindof like opening a pop bottle. The first time it is opened there is a ton of pressure but after its been opened internal pressures aren't as great. To your point, artificial lift would work just fine in keeping it flowing we just wouldn't see a typical IP rate (I wouldn't guess) but would think it would be easy to justify at $1 million per completion.
    Dec 22, 2014. 09:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Poor SW Williams County Results Have Caused Oasis To Move Rigs [View article]
    Aricool,

    Both WLL and CLR are in big trouble in my opinion but right now I am a big oil bear (and could be wrong) just based on what it will take to curb enough production to get us over the 2 million/d glut in oil.
    The oil service market has tightened up a lot in 2H15. I think a lot of work was already contracted out for much of 1H15 so some operators will still get some deals but I think 2H15 we see a steep drop in pricing. We should get a good feel for what is going on at the end of 2Q15 or beginning of 3Q15, unless we find production keeps pushing forward in the US
    Dec 22, 2014. 09:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Poor SW Williams County Results Have Caused Oasis To Move Rigs [View article]
    GHOST, Pablo, OXBORO:

    Yes the move to re-frac 2012 wells is intriguing as it looks like EOG believes it can begin a new development program that needs only a fraction of the investment to possibly produce a significant amount of resource. There are a few reasons to be skeptical of this working (but since it is EOG we will give them the benefit of the doubt) as wells are already drilled and well pressures will be much lower. This means as much resource wont get pushed up and out of the wellbore. Another issue is what Pablomike was talking about, and 2012 wells were already starting to see some of the better fracs close to the wellbore that EOG has been so successful with. I would be more interested in wells completed in Parshall field back in 2006.

    The main question is will it work? I think so, and the main reason is their newer sand heavy fracs that use about one million pounds of sand per 1000 feet of lateral. These fracs have improved results by anywhere from 50% to over 100% with respect to barrels of crude recovered over the first year. If EOG is planning to use this frac design for its re-fracs it may produce excellent results when you consider an investment of just $1 million. Re-fracs to date haven't produced exceptional results, but if EOG is going to use its more intensive fracs it could be interesting.
    Dec 21, 2014. 04:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Poor SW Williams County Results Have Caused Oasis To Move Rigs [View article]
    GHOST,

    Been lots of talk about that in the State. It will be interesting to see if the Government decides to repeal it.
    Dec 20, 2014. 09:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: 2015 May Be A Difficult Year For This Bakken Non-Operator [View article]
    mp123,

    I would say that is a possibility. But the big worry would be that much of its acreage wouldn't be developed at all. This could mean it wont be able to produce enough oil to meet the current hedges. This is why I am a little more worried about their specific leasehold in the short term. Looking at this longer term, I am not as worried, as I think that $80 provides for fairly good economics, except for its least attractive areas.
    Dec 18, 2014. 12:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Poor SW Williams County Results Have Caused Oasis To Move Rigs [View article]
    Gregg,

    I don't see much of a chance of a cut. This is more of a supply and demand situation, so the Saudis will probably continue producing at current levels and wait for fewer wells being drilled going forward to decrease supply. I do think oil prices will be higher in a year or two either way, but it will take a little time to get there.
    Dec 18, 2014. 12:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Poor SW Williams County Results Have Caused Oasis To Move Rigs [View article]
    GHOST,

    Those taxes could be dropping soon, depending on oil prices.
    Dec 17, 2014. 11:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Poor SW Williams County Results Have Caused Oasis To Move Rigs [View article]
    Nicholas,

    I knew someone was going to bring that up, but keep in mind the venue I had and trying to explain each level of support from $60/bbl to $37.50/bbl. That wasn't going to happen, and using a word Fibonacci may have caused half the televisions in North Dakota to shut off. The idea behind the interview was to let North Dakotans know what may be ahead, and that it is possible. In that venue, I could only cover so much.

    I hope Boone is right, as I would like to see oil recovery that quickly, but if you look at his estimates he may be the most aggressive of all the estimates out there for price recovery. Merry Christmas to you and your family as well!
    Dec 16, 2014. 01:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Poor SW Williams County Results Have Caused Oasis To Move Rigs [View article]
    Thanks Gregg,

    You have a Merry Christmas as well, and God Bless you and your family. Its always great hearing from you. You are right in this wont last forever. Just depends on what OPEC thinks a good price is to wash out some of these projects. Once world growth increases again, we will find that we need to grow production again relatively quickly (at least that is my guess).
    Dec 15, 2014. 04:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BakkenUpdate: Rex Energy Blows By Q1 Analyst Estimates On Its Way To $30/Share [View article]
    Aricool,

    Your welcome!
    Dec 15, 2014. 01:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: EOG Antelope Well Has One-Year Payback At $50/Bbl WTI [View article]
    blueice,

    Very good points. Oil in ND is trading around $40/bbl right now which is distressing to say the least. Differentials to $16 and widening.....
    Dec 15, 2014. 01:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: EOG Antelope Well Has One-Year Payback At $50/Bbl WTI [View article]
    Carl,

    I played Defensive End. Nothing better than chasing QBs. I was born here and didn't move from the state until I was 23 (left for college). Came back again in 2001, and will probably die here.

    You are right about oil. until it finds a footing, it will continue to head lower. I don't think anyone knows when that will be either.
    Dec 15, 2014. 01:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Poor SW Williams County Results Have Caused Oasis To Move Rigs [View article]
    Fossilfuel,

    Thanks for the insight. Excellent as usual!
    Dec 15, 2014. 12:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Poor SW Williams County Results Have Caused Oasis To Move Rigs [View article]
    Here are a list of the wells and the associated chokes from the article:

    19413: 68/64
    19614: 68/64
    20996: 28/64

    Of the above wells, the 68/64 is considered a relatively large choke and should let resource flow much better than the average Bakken operator. Of the three only the 20996 is considered to be "average or a little tighter than average). Many operators have opened up their chokes some over the past 8 or so years as they have a better understanding of well pressures and aren't worried they will damage the well by letting the resource flow to freely.
    Dec 15, 2014. 12:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Poor SW Williams County Results Have Caused Oasis To Move Rigs [View article]
    C. David Kirby,

    All very good points, but as of today, Bakken like is selling for around $40. The current Bakken light differential is $16 and widening. The article has to do with today and well results from one to two years ago. Currently, the acreage isnt economic. When oil goes back up it could be, but keep in mind the 2015 differential will be between $13 and $14, (last year was $11 to $12). Oasis should be fine is oil prices recover after 1Q15, but after that much of its hedges are gone and will have to realize current market prices. Have a great day!
    Dec 15, 2014. 12:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
4,169 Comments
3,475 Likes