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Michael Filloon  

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  • The 3 Best Oil Fields In The Bakken And The Stocks That Are Capitalizing, Part 1 [View article]
    Fracjob,
    I am unsure why BEXP has outperformed. I don't think its the acreage as these fields are in the same area, and Brighams results have been better consistently whether in Mountrail or Williams County. One thing to consider, is these wells will level off in production after four or five years, with Brigham's production just being higher initially. I personally think (this is a guess) Brigham is just doing a better job of drilling and completing, which probably allows better fracturing. BEXP spends $8.9 million per well while Whiting spends an estimated $5.5 million. WLL attributes this to cheaper ceramic sand because it signed longer term contracts. There is probably alot more too it than that and Brigham will continue to lower these costs with pad drilling, zipper fracs etc. I would expect EOG's costs to be very low due to their 640 acre drilling units. Brigham has consistently had more stages until recently, where other companies are beginning to use more stages like Brigham. As for right now the only thing we can trust is what is happening right now. Brigham seems to continue to have better production numbers a year out, plus it continues to make improvements. Right now Brigham seems to be the best play in the Bakken, but I would watch Kodiak as well.
    Oct 13, 2011. 12:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update (Part II): McKenzie And Williams Counties Are The Next Emerging Plays [View article]
    Jeep,
    I hate to say it (or at least wish it wasnt true), but you are right. I think the problem is probably more than Greece. It would be nice if Europe comes up with a plan to buy these banks and split up the pieces. Run some QE, and anything else to push this through. One thing I will say is if Europe announces a QE plan and we announce another round at the same time we could see the market moving higher again here in the States, plus stop the downward run in Europe.
    Oct 10, 2011. 11:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The 3 Best Oil Fields In The Bakken And The Stocks That Are Capitalizing, Part 1 [View article]
    Brigham's valuation is at this level mostly due to its lack of cash flow plus its a growth stock. When there is a fear the price of oil will pull back significantly growth stocks get hurt more than value. One thing I will say is if Europe gets a good plan for its banking system, then some of this irrational fear will leave the market and these growth names should have a very good run.
    Oct 10, 2011. 11:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The 3 Best Oil Fields In The Bakken And The Stocks That Are Capitalizing, Part 1 [View article]
    I sold all of my positions except BEXP and TPLM and bought KOG at $4. There are some worries in these names going into winter as it sounds like there will be more snow this year than last. It sounds like BEXP and KOG have spent some money on infrastructure and I hope they have pipelines in at a good portion of the areas they are drilling. I think these names are so cheap now, that even if some wells have to be shut in, its already priced in.
    Oct 10, 2011. 10:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update (Part III): McKenzie And Williams Counties Are The Next Emerging Plays [View article]
    A well that had a 24 hour IP rate of 2500 Boe/d, would be difficult to model. A 30 or 60 IP rate would be better number for a consistent EUR. Bill Costello would be who to ask on a question like that. What I would say, is there are three producers outperforming with huge IP rates compared to the competition. BEXP, KOG and NFX have had some very good rates with WLL also producing well. For some reasons whether it is geology of their plays, or just doing a better job of dilling and completing those are the names outperforming in Williston Basin.
    Oct 10, 2011. 10:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update (Part III): McKenzie And Williams Counties Are The Next Emerging Plays [View article]
    Chris,
    Generally the oil company will divulge whether the well is a middle Bakken or Upper Three Forks well, and sometimes the well name itself will designate what the target is. Some of this information comes directly from presentations, but if additional info is needed these companies are very helpful via phone call or email. The key is knowing what to ask for.
    Oct 10, 2011. 12:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update (Part II): McKenzie And Williams Counties Are The Next Emerging Plays [View article]
    Jeep,
    Sounds like you made a quick profit. I don't really trust the market either. Europe still wants to take its time in taking care of its banks. It would be nice to have some transparency.
    Oct 10, 2011. 11:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update (Part II): McKenzie And Williams Counties Are The Next Emerging Plays [View article]
    Bill,
    How do you feel about the new acreage Kodiak just purchased in Williams? Did Kodiak get a good deal or pay too much?
    Oct 10, 2011. 11:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update (Part II): McKenzie And Williams Counties Are The Next Emerging Plays [View article]
    Bill,
    Its my favorite play too. Glad I loaded up on the pullback.
    Oct 10, 2011. 10:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update (Part II): McKenzie And Williams Counties Are The Next Emerging Plays [View article]
    Jeep:
    I thought the same about the production numbers. I think North Dakota will probably surpass most of the total production estimates. Looking at recent IP rates, it seems all of the producers have started to get a feel for the area.
    Oct 10, 2011. 10:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update (Part I): McKenzie And Williams Counties Are The Next Emerging Plays [View article]
    Still cleaning up after the flood, I guess hotel rooms are booked out for a month at a time.
    Oct 9, 2011. 12:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update (Part I): McKenzie And Williams Counties Are The Next Emerging Plays [View article]
    I use analyst estimates quite a bit, but mostly to determine company value. History will show that BEXP will generally beat estimates, KOG will miss and CLR will come in line. What I would watch on this is KOG, they actually beat last quarter.
    Oct 8, 2011. 04:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update (Part I): McKenzie And Williams Counties Are The Next Emerging Plays [View article]
    I don't think that PetroBakken is the best way to play the Williston Basin. Right now I would look for companies working Williams, McKenzie, Mountrail, and Dunn counties. These areas just have much better production.
    Oct 8, 2011. 04:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update (Part I): McKenzie And Williams Counties Are The Next Emerging Plays [View article]
    The Mouse river completed flooded Minot. Almost totalled the entire town. The bigger oil companies all got together and donated a large sum of money to help the city out. The Missouri River also flooded (hadnt had a flood since the Garrison Dam was built) and destroyed a good portion of the homes on the river. Guess there was a mistake as to how much water was to be released. Terrible year for water, and looks like more of the same this year.
    Oct 8, 2011. 04:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparing Large Oil And Gas Names Working U.S. Land Plays: Part 4 [View article]
    beststockpicker,

    Thanks for the information on Canadian oil plays. It is appreciated.
    Oct 7, 2011. 12:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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