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Michael Filloon

 
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  • Bakken Update: Permian Pure Play Athlon Has Howard County Upside [View article]
    bank,

    That was a good result, but I think that county is better than anyone is giving it credit for. I thought the price was reasonable, and its possible they got it cheap.
    Shaletrader
    http://bit.ly/1si3hbl
    Sep 29 09:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Athlon Offers Unique Exposure To The Northern Midland Basin [View article]
    Nice move on ATHL acquisition today. The pullback has may have provided value in the space. More info at Shaletrader (link below).

    http://bit.ly/1si3hbl
    Sep 29 09:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Permian Pure Play Athlon Beats Estimates With Vertical Wolfberry Production [View article]
    Nice move on ATHL buyout. Shows how other E&Ps are valuing the Howard County acreage. Pullback has provided value in some of the names. More info at Shaletrader.
    www. shaletrader.com
    Sep 29 09:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Permian Pure Play Athlon Has Howard County Upside [View article]
    Nice pop today on Encana's acquisition. Turned out to be a nice trade. We have more on the acquisition at http://bit.ly/1si3hbl.
    Sep 29 09:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Analysts Have This Recent Permian IPO Growing 88% In 2015 [View article]
    Blackdesert,

    Thanks, acreage values differ greatly when comparing the Delaware and Midland Basins. The Bone Springs is a good play (better in the northern Delaware than the south) but when we compare all of the intervals in the northern Delaware Basin to those in Midland, Midland is quite a bit better. Midland has seen more well results and because of this is further along, as well. As for the stocks you asked about, we cover those for our subscribers/investors at:
    http://bit.ly/1si3hbl
    Sep 15 09:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Analysts Have This Recent Permian IPO Growing 88% In 2015 [View article]
    Thanks shavitmi.

    Link to our website:
    http://bit.ly/1si3hbl
    Sep 14 10:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Analysts Have This Recent Permian IPO Growing 88% In 2015 [View article]
    shavitmi,

    Sorry I didn't answer quicker. This article covers operators in the Midland Basin, and that would be the main reason for not commenting on LNREF. But since it was brought up, I will comment on it. As for its market cap, it is just shy of $300MM, so its not real small with respect to some of the other names we cover. Compared to companies like EOX ($500MM) and AXAS ($550MM) it isn't terribly small. AXAS is a name we really like and have owned it in the past, but looking for a better entry point to get back in. In the Permian, CPE has a market cap under $400MM as well. It is better to focus on market cap and why we tend not to get real excited about share prices, as it could do a reverse split.
    Looking at its acreage, there are some very good areas, but the Eagle Ford is pretty good anywhere around the border of the oil and condensate windows. As we get more north and east, we see results improve because the Eagle Ford is a little deeper. Looking specifically at Lonestar's acreage in the Eagle Ford, we see three separate prospects, and each is quite different from the next, due to the distance between each area. Starting with the best acreage, its Gonzales/Wilson county acreage should perform the best. This "Gonzo" prospect is to the northeast of EOG's sweetspot. This is an area that has produced some of the best wells in play. It looks like this acreage is outside that area, but still very good. The Wilson County "Pirate" acreage is also very good. It is not as deep or gassy as Gonzo, but still good acreage. This is why they paid almost twice as much for its central acreage as it paid for its western. Its cheaper to drill the western acreage because of a more shallow vertical. It is a good thing Lonestar owns most of its western acreage near the consensate window. The higher percentage of natural gas "energizes" the well, or creates a higher pressured environment. This helps to move the resource up and out of the well bore. Western acreage has estimates for 23% gas as opposed to the 7% in the central acreage. These two areas do look quite good for Lonestar, and the acreage was purchased reasonably. We are starting to see the smaller startups all over in the U.S. because bigger operators don't want to mess with the smaller areas as it isn't worth their while. Bigger companies also want all of its acreage in one spot so development is much cheaper helping to keep the IRR% higher. Both the western and central areas are proven, which is good to have with a company this size so we don't have to worry about whether they have a core. EURs are higher in the west, but keep in mind those are higher due to the amount of gas produced. Lonestar has IRRs% higher in the west, but I think they will find the Gonzales acreage as much better than those estimates. Keep in mind, I could be wrong, but I am going off of well results nearby, and as you know these can vary significantly from one operator to the next. The Eastern acreage is much tougher to evaluation as there hasn't been as much traffic here. So its a little tougher to know. HK is drilling its "El Halcon" and has EURs of 452MBoe using a 7000 foot lateral. It is using a closer to the well bore type stimulation with very large volume of sand per foot. Keep in mind the Austin Chalk, Buda and Woodbine could also be economic in its eastern prospect. CWEI has differing estimates. It has EURs of 200MBoe to 250MBoe using 5500 to 6000 feet laterals.
    Looking at its acreage by the Poplar Dome, there hasn't been a lot of success using horizontals targeting the middle Bakken or upper Three Forks. STO has had a very good Red River vertical, but the middle Bakken has disappointed to date. More than likely, Lonestar got the acreage cheap and is waiting to see what happens as the area continues to be developed by bigger operators. It hopes there will be some success so it can sell or develop it themselves.
    In summary, Lonestar does have acreage with good economics. We don't own it, nor do we have plans to buy it. That isn't because we do or don't like the stock, just that we like others better. Right now is a tough time to own any small oil and gas operator as it is very possible WTI may head lower from here. I hope this clears things up a little, and let me know if you have any questions.
    The link below is to our website:
    http://bit.ly/1si3hbl
    Sep 13 11:25 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Analysts Have This Recent Permian IPO Growing 88% In 2015 [View article]
    Hi Jeep, always great to hear from you. If oil prices keep dropping, I wouldnt recommend owning any small cap E&Ps no matter which play they are located in. I think we will see some panic selling if we dip below $90/bbl. WTI, which would be seen more in the E&Ps. The losses could be deeper in the small caps. We lightened up positions in the E&Ps a while ago and would like to treat this dip as a buying opportunity. Congrats on your call, as it looks like NorthAmerican production is affecting OPEC/Brent pricing.
    http://bit.ly/1si3hbl
    Sep 10 12:49 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Analysts Have This Recent Permian IPO Growing 88% In 2015 [View article]
    Thanks Jim,

    I appreciate it.

    http://bit.ly/1si3hbl
    Sep 9 11:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Analysts Have This Recent Permian IPO Growing 88% In 2015 [View article]
    koolsool,

    Yes it does, but we are already starting to see most of the pipeline capacity filled. Which is why we are seeing differentials widen. The Permian is much cheaper than the Bakken, which sends most of its crude by rail to the coasts. Not as cheap as the Eagle Ford, but that due to how close it is to the large gulf refineries. The Permian does have an option to rail to California, which wouldn't be too expensive and there are some projects planned to send crude directly to the Gulf. Both of which are good options.

    http://bit.ly/1si3hbl
    Sep 9 11:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Analysts Have This Recent Permian IPO Growing 88% In 2015 [View article]
    meridian6,

    I pulled these numbers off Yahoo Finance. Just an average of those specific analysts.

    http://bit.ly/1si3hbl
    Sep 9 11:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Analysts Have This Recent Permian IPO Growing 88% In 2015 [View article]
    13302632,

    It could be significant. ATHL has held up very well with respect to WTI pricing (since 7/24/14, the USO is down 8.46% and ATHL is down 13.52%). Much of this has to do with Athlons success and location of acreage, but it would not be immune to a sell off. It is difficult to estimate (at least with any certainty) how far ATHL would retrace. The closer we get to $85, the greater chance we have for panic selling which will be responsible for the largest part of these moves. I would say if we see a 10% pullback in the price of WTI from today, it wouldn't be strange to see a 20% move in any of these fast growing small caps.

    http://bit.ly/1si3hbl
    Sep 9 11:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Diamondback Has 28% Upside [View article]
    SilverD19,

    Consolidation in the oil and gas space may not be that far off and if that is the case, many of these smaller names will get bought. We don't believe this will happen anytime soon, but when it does the buying will occur quickly. As for FANG, I don't think that they would be that willing to sell since the business is growing quickly and there are still a large number of intervals to downspace. There is just too much going for the Midland Basin players. This will change quickly as they run through their inventory and the price of oil heads higher.
    Sep 2 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Diamondback Has 28% Upside [View article]
    Hi Steve,

    Its been a while. Nice to hear from you. The majority of those acres are in Howard and from what we have seen it is very good vertically and horizontally. Probably not as good as Midland but better than Glascock.
    There are a few reasons for Lynden's development outside of Mitchell County. The first is the building of an acreage position in proven areas. Although Lynden has sold some of its producing acreage isn't surprising. I think anytime it receives an offer that provides upside it will take it, but I think it will continue to add acreage in proven areas when it can. Lynden has an advantage as it can buy little plots of acreage anywhere. This basically means it can buy small areas that most operators wouldn't be interested in. Valuing its current acreage is tough because an operator would probably only be interested if it was a bolt on.
    Lynden isn't moving real fast on Mitchell because it could it is either the best thing going for the company or the worst. If it hits, then we see a big pop in Lynden's value, but if we see a miss, then the stock takes a big hit. Mitchell Ranch isn't as good as its other acreage, but mostly because of the number of prospective intervals. I has the Wolfcamp, Cline, and the Penn. The intervals are nice and thick and should produce well vertically. We are unsure as to how it will produce horizontally. We do follow Lynden but don't own it. I own some in my personal accounts. Hope this helps.

    http://bit.ly/1si3hbl
    Sep 1 12:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Diamondback Has 28% Upside [View article]
    lol wut,

    Sorry, but I should have described a little better what I meant with my last comment. We have the data you are looking for, but its not free. If you want to discuss it further contact our office. We also provide it to our investors, so there is that option too. If not you could spend some time on the NDIC website and go through it well by well. Thanks again for commenting, always appreciate your input.

    http://bit.ly/1si3hbl
    Aug 30 02:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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