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Michael Filloon

 
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  • BakkenUpdate: Rex Energy Blows By Q1 Analyst Estimates On Its Way To $30/Share [View article]
    This has definitely been a painful one. Not a good time to own anything with a heavy debt burden.
    Jan 15, 2015. 03:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Poor SW Williams County Results Have Caused Oasis To Move Rigs [View article]
    Aricool,

    The problem is they are motivated, as it would mean more revenues. The only good thing is it is more difficult to find a buyer (at least without further discounts.
    Jan 12, 2015. 10:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Poor SW Williams County Results Have Caused Oasis To Move Rigs [View article]
    Aricool,

    The tough thing is they are motivated to do so as those would be added revenues. The only problem would be finding a buyer.

    http://bit.ly/1si3hbl
    Jan 12, 2015. 10:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: 2015 May Be A Difficult Year For This Bakken Non-Operator [View article]
    Aricool,

    How long will be the key. We think that I think the news out from GS today was positive as it sounds like oil will rebound in the second half of the year. I know that was longer than others expected, but it should mean that mainly the marginal producers with high debt will be at risk.
    Jan 12, 2015. 10:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: 2015 May Be A Difficult Year For This Bakken Non-Operator [View article]
    Aricool,

    Not in love is correct. Thanks
    Jan 12, 2015. 10:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Poor SW Williams County Results Have Caused Oasis To Move Rigs [View article]
    lukethomas13579,

    Very nice info there and that is true (I appreciate you bringing that up), but the issue that is going to be the most important is the value of those assets as determined by the banks that are providing credit to the operators. If it is deemed those reserves arent worth as much then we could see some of that credit reduced. Thanks again
    Jan 9, 2015. 05:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Poor SW Williams County Results Have Caused Oasis To Move Rigs [View article]
    Aricool,

    That would depend on how old the well was that was being re stimulated. The older the well the better the result. Plus it would depend on the type of restimulation. I dont have any data on how well performance improves on re fracs depending on if they are slickwater or hybrid jobs. I would guess these could produce interesting results though
    Jan 9, 2015. 04:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Oil Prices In 2015 [View article]
    freed0m,

    light/sweet is always better for refined product, but as you said better for gasoline. Here is the diesel fuel (distillate) yield breakdown:
    Light/Sweet=30%
    Medium Sour=26%
    Heavy Sour=21%

    Heres the breakdown for gasoline:
    L/S=32%
    MS=24%
    HS=15%
    Hope this helps
    Jan 9, 2015. 02:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Oil Prices In 2015 [View article]
    jaxs55,

    The upper Three Forks is the main target. This isn't just for SM but has been the case for AMZG, MHR, etc. The Three Forks has a little better well pressures because the source rock is a little deeper. This tends to allow for a little better production. The middle Bakken is a target, but probably needs a better oil price than the Three Forks as the economics probably aren't as good.
    Jan 8, 2015. 08:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Oil Prices In 2015 [View article]
    AlphaGrazer,

    When we talk about break even pricing with respect to a per bbl of oil price there are some questions to ask. The first being how he is figuring out the break even period. Every operator has a differing time frame, where most operators want to get paid back in a year to 18 months while others are ok with stringing it out a little further. Then we would have to find out what he is using for costs, to consider being paid back in to break even. The problem with how this is figured is two fold. There is the accounting behind the pay back time frames, the second is how production is figured. This is one reason I dont like using EURs is it tells one very little about how quickly an operator sees payback, and it generally figures projections over 30 to 40 years (there is a wide variability to this). One must remember that these wells deplete quite fast initially but then after a period of years depletion slows (Craig could describe this better than I). Well economics are the same way as once the well reaches payback, production costs decrease significantly.
    Jan 8, 2015. 04:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Oil Prices In 2015 [View article]
    Craig,

    Thanks for answering. Excellent info as always.
    Jan 8, 2015. 02:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Oil Prices In 2015 [View article]
    Randal,

    Good point as usual, and we do have (I think) three refineries in the works, but they are smaller and I think all they will do is diesel fuel. It would definately help with some of the issues we have up here.
    Jan 7, 2015. 02:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Oil Prices In 2015 [View article]
    coyote21,

    The best place for Hamm's reserves are in the ground since he sold his hedge book. Other operators are getting $90/bbl.
    Jan 7, 2015. 02:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Oil Prices In 2015 [View article]
    Chris,

    Hedges are meant to get operators through the tough times, its just too bad most operators were feeling too secure and did not hedge enough. I would agree that the longer we go, the better the chance something will happen to support oil prices.
    Jan 7, 2015. 02:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Oil Prices In 2015 [View article]
    Timothy,

    I the premise is sound, but it is possible frac sand will continue to sell off for a while yet. The fear is there will be more well cancelations, and even if more sand is used, some of that was already baked into the stock. Frac sand like any commodity could get hit pretty hard if there are price cuts, especially if some operators go out of business and cant hold up their end of frac sand contracts.
    Jan 7, 2015. 02:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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