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Michael Filloon  

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  • Bakken Update: Whiting's Extensive Refrac Inventory May Provide Significant Upside [View article]
    sparky58701,

    All very good points and there are a large number of variables to cover on a subject this large. It is very easy to take a couple of points and expand on those to paint a negative picture, but we work off of hard numbers and not statements that are not backed by those numbers. Just for arguments sake lets cram some numbers and see how it affects the specific wells modeled in this paper.

    We used a refrac cost of $2 million. Although you didn't provide a specific cost for a refrac in this area, lets say our estimates are wrong and the cost moves to $3 million. Payback times move from 5.2 to 7.6 months (this is an average as production would be levered to the front end, so results are probably better on a payback basis). If we keep the higher refrac cost and also add your assertion that production would lessen due to well communication with additional wells drilled per section. Obviously production would decrease depending on the number of wells per section, so we'll use a very aggressive number of 33% resource lost on a refrac. This would reduce the 360 day revenues from $3.1 million and $4.6 million. If we use the higher $3 million refrac cost, our payback times would move to roughly 8 to 12 months. I think it is great to get comments and questions, but keep in mind these numbers are excellent. We could even figure this at a much lower oil price and get good results as most operators would like to reach payback by 18 months at a minimum. If you would like to add more info on the subject that would be great, but the readers find it most helpful if one can back their assertions with data, as we are concerned with how it will affect specific investments. Thanks!
    Apr 8, 2015. 09:23 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: American Eagle's Well Results Spell Significant Issues If Oil Prices Don't Rebound Soon [View article]
    Noble Financial put a one cent price target on AMZG
    http://bit.ly/1ItaCiP
    Apr 8, 2015. 02:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: EOG Antelope Well Has One-Year Payback At $50/Bbl WTI [View article]
    WALLY B GOOD

    EOG has always been pretty conservative about choking back its production in both oil and natural gas wells. They were probably one of the more conservative (tightest choke) when production began for them in the Bakken back in 2006 and carried an extremely tight choke up until about 2012 where they moderated some but was still more conservative than most. Oil producers were worried that a wide open choke would wreck a well, as seen in conventional production. Brigham and Oasis have tested this notion but it doesn't seem to cause any damage, but I think and open choke allows well pressures to decrease too quickly and this probably hurts production long term, but we don't have enough data to prove this. On well 20513 from this article, EOG used a 38/64. Even if EOG had used a very wide choke, it wouldn't have affected the longer term production much. Most believe this only affects 90 day data but as we get further out the production is lower in the months after so over time this evens things out some. Hope this helps and sorry it took so long to get back to you.
    Apr 5, 2015. 08:17 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: QEP Resources' Bakken Development Could Be Best In Play [View article]
    Hi Bart,

    The 19K/acre is what the geology or land is worth once we strip out infrastructure (pipelines, wells, etc.)
    http://bit.ly/1si3hbl
    Mar 29, 2015. 08:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Bakken Operators May Get $1 Billion Tax Break [View article]
    Fred,

    Yes you are correct. The tax is a shared burden so the holders would receive it as well.
    Mar 13, 2015. 02:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why to Buy This Bakken Pull Back? Production and Recovery Part 2 [View article]
    GVB,

    What specifically are you looking for? Are you just wondering what they are targeting?
    Feb 27, 2015. 07:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: U.S. Crude Storage Capacity Is Filling Up, So Oil May Be Headed Below $40/Bbl [View article]
    We still continue to see oil prices steady, but production continues to increase. We are watching EIA numbers closely. More info can be found at Shaletrader in the link below.
    http://bit.ly/1si3hbl
    Feb 23, 2015. 01:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: U.S. Crude Storage Capacity Is Filling Up, So Oil May Be Headed Below $40/Bbl [View article]
    Thanks TOT,
    Just have to wait and see if the inventories continue to pile up.
    http://bit.ly/1si3hbl
    Feb 19, 2015. 03:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: U.S. Crude Storage Capacity Is Filling Up, So Oil May Be Headed Below $40/Bbl [View article]
    We get a very important number today at 10am where the EIA will give us the inventory number. If the API is correct with the crude inventory adds for this past week, it is the largest add since 1982 (that was when they first started keeping track of it).
    Feb 19, 2015. 09:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: U.S. Crude Storage Capacity Is Filling Up, So Oil May Be Headed Below $40/Bbl [View article]
    TeaRex,

    I think with all of the economic issues over in that part of the world that a ceasefire would be bullish the price of oil. Normally conflicts push up the price but I think with all the issues with the Euro (and other currencies) and strength in currency, the best thing for oil prices (mostly affects Brent since WTI will trade on its own if we continue to add barrels) is no conflict. I don't think it is currently a significant issue given the supply driven market. When markets are driven by demand these things cause quick a large swings in oil price, but when oil is plentiful, we just don't see those types of moves.
    Feb 19, 2015. 09:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: U.S. Crude Storage Capacity Is Filling Up, So Oil May Be Headed Below $40/Bbl [View article]
    GHOST,

    I could be wrong but I think the refiners are close to capacity so I think gasoline prices will go up. Right now those rates are low but that is because of seasonal downtime, but I don't think TSO can pick up the slack if that refinery is closed down for 6 months.
    http://bit.ly/1si3hbl
    Feb 19, 2015. 12:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: U.S. Crude Storage Capacity Is Filling Up, So Oil May Be Headed Below $40/Bbl [View article]
    bartpr,

    I don't know if there is incorrect info, but there may be a lack of understanding of how each play produces. If you take average numbers it can give you a much higher $ value per bbl. for the play as a whole, but if you break the play into its better/best areas those numbers are much lower. Also, some writers may be discussing breakeven numbers, while others use payback times. We figure out each play by breaking down areas by specific well results. We believe this is better than taking field production numbers as breaking down a play into fields provides us with better data. Keep in mind that each play has differing production from different areas. Because of this the best areas can continue to produce at much lower oil prices, while other areas will see little to no development. Hope this helps.
    http://bit.ly/1si3hbl
    Feb 18, 2015. 09:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: U.S. Crude Storage Capacity Is Filling Up, So Oil May Be Headed Below $40/Bbl [View article]
    MDHJr,

    Its possible it will affect heating oil stocks, but not sure if there is enough to move crude inventories. Its hard to know how much the decline (if it occurs) will affect E&P stocks because many of the funds had already got in when oil was in the mid to high $40s. This will depend more on the depth and duration of the pullback. We currently think crude will make new lows, but aren't in the camp we will see $20/bbl. Its possible, but we like oil below $40/bbl and even into the mid-30s. We do some trading of the commodity, and are currently short. We also have some cash to buy E&Ps as we get closer to 52 week lows.
    Feb 18, 2015. 09:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: U.S. Crude Storage Capacity Is Filling Up, So Oil May Be Headed Below $40/Bbl [View article]
    GHOST4REAL,

    looks like the refinery could be closed for up to 6 months.
    Feb 18, 2015. 08:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: U.S. Crude Storage Capacity Is Filling Up, So Oil May Be Headed Below $40/Bbl [View article]
    cayman,

    You arent missing anything. We think in the short term there are opportunities to get in at lower oil prices, but also believe oil prices will be higher than they are today at the end of the year and going into next year. Either way we think there are still opportunities in the oil markets.
    http://bit.ly/1si3hbl
    Feb 18, 2015. 09:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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