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Michael Filloon

 
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  • Bakken Update: Continental Resources' Well Results Around 2 Major Well Pads Not Currently Economic [View article]
    bikerron1,

    Hope you do the same! Be safe buddy!
    Dec 29, 2014. 02:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Continental Resources' Well Results Around 2 Major Well Pads Not Currently Economic [View article]
    @darracqM

    Yes, operators are receiving $40/bbl. (this is a rough estimate, but the differential has widened some).
    Dec 29, 2014. 02:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: 2015 May Be A Difficult Year For This Bakken Non-Operator [View article]
    longplayer,

    Well design will be paramount and is very important going forward. Those not using hybrid fracs currently, will see 30% to 40% improvements in production. The problem with this, is its not enough to develop acreage outside NE McKenzie/Ft Berthold area.

    No argument on HK. They could go out of business in 8 to 12 months if oil prices aren't above $60/bbl. But focusing on companies that have it worse doesn't improve NOG's situation.

    Could you please clarify you statement:
    The idea, that they will not be able to grow production in the low price environment does not make a lot of sense when you know they can change their focus in a heartbeat.

    How can NOG change their focus when the majority of its acreage isn't economic? Not bashing NOG here, but the numbers don't add up.
    Dec 29, 2014. 02:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: 2015 May Be A Difficult Year For This Bakken Non-Operator [View article]
    Here's one of the news links some were looking for
    http://bit.ly/1wuTzS6
    Heres part 2
    http://bit.ly/1wuTyNZ
    Let me know if the links don't work
    Dec 28, 2014. 03:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: 2015 May Be A Difficult Year For This Bakken Non-Operator [View article]
    Aricool,

    That is an excellent point that not many investors are accounting for. If we continue to move rigs to the best areas of the Bakken, Eagle Ford and Permian, we could keep production levels high and operators would still make decent profits at $60/bbl. Operators would still be motivated to grow production (as operators always are) so it keeps prices low and "the little guys" go out of business and US production is forced to move to core areas only. Wouldn't destroy the oil business, only those with geology that wont make it. Difficult to know for sure, but US operators will continue to produce until they cannot at current prices. The only problem is we wont know how this will work out until mid way through next year.
    Dec 28, 2014. 12:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: 2015 May Be A Difficult Year For This Bakken Non-Operator [View article]
    longplayer,

    This issue may not give NOG the opportunity to non-elect as those wells may never get drilled. If they don't, then NOG will be sitting on acreage that has no value (although they have spent money on the lease). It can go with just wells on its acreage near the Nesson Anticline but that leaves only so much to develop after a very large investment. Also, oil and gas investors don't generally want to invest in operators that cant grow production. The wait and see approach is one most wont want to be involved with. I don't agree that the market has trouble valuing NOG as they have valued it pretty much the same since 2012. The market doesn't value non-operators and operators the same. They never have and never will. Operators can not only control how their acreage is developed but also when. Non-operators have to wait and see, which is not as appealing for an investor who generally likes to know how things are going to go from quarter to quarter. I would keep in mind that this article was written when the stock price was $11.24, so the stock looks a lot better now than it did just a month ago.
    Dec 27, 2014. 09:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Emerald Payback Times Point To A Long Winter In The Bakken [View article]
    Notaspeculator,

    Sorry you didn't find the article helpful, but if you look back through some of my older articles, you may find more on Bakken geology and the core areas. I can guarantee you one thing and that is EOX has no acreage anywhere near the core, nor do they produce anywhere near as well. If you want to compare well results I have done a large number of articles on this subject and you can compare those results if you would like. One thing about those comparisons, you will find EOXs results are not on par, and they are probably going to have difficulties going forward.
    As for the infrastructure, trucks, transport, etc. you were looking for, you will just have to find that stuff on your own. We provide info about oil and gas names to help investors make informed decisions, we do not do articles for people on request. The LOEs give an idea of operator costs and that is mostly what we are interested in right now (along with other costs which we monitor), but find no need to get that specific. You could go to the NDIC and look at gas sold versus produced, may give you a better idea. As for depletion, that is already figured into the data provided above. We use to think depletion was a big deal (and it can be) but there is very little depletion tells us when we already have production numbers from one and two years out. As a general rule, the best wells deplete the most as sky high IP rate generally have higher well pressures which deplete faster than wells that don't produce as well. When we study depletion further out, we find that initial depletion can be a good thing as results are generally better with higher levels of depletion because this means initial production is higher earlier. Depletion will make no difference in how many wells EOX can drill as none of their wells are economic right now. If you are looking for financials for EOX, all you have to do it go to http://yhoo.it/1rlGHlB
    We don't copy financials onto our articles as those are readily available to anyone that wants to check them out.
    shaletrader.com
    Dec 25, 2014. 06:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: American Eagle's Well Results Spell Significant Issues If Oil Prices Don't Rebound Soon [View article]
    Pablomike,

    That's awesome buddy! Im really happy for you. Must have been a long wait.
    Dec 25, 2014. 11:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: American Eagle's Well Results Spell Significant Issues If Oil Prices Don't Rebound Soon [View article]
    Merry Christmas Everyone! Take some time to be thankful for what really matters. Faith, Family and Friends
    Dec 24, 2014. 11:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: 2015 May Be A Difficult Year For This Bakken Non-Operator [View article]
    Thanks Randal,

    Merry Christmas to you and yours as well!
    Dec 24, 2014. 11:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: 2015 May Be A Difficult Year For This Bakken Non-Operator [View article]
    Aricool,

    Good point, thanks for the question. It is much more important for an operator to produce all of their hedged production not just based on today but also tomorrow. We have estimates all over the place as to realized prices needed to get wells producing in the Bakken, Permian, etc, and everyone knows these numbers can be fudged some as to costs or more importantly how quickly an operator really thinks it needs to be paid back. What they don't talk a lot about is what costs are once a well pays back. These are estimates that get thrown around (so take with a grain of salt but once wells payback it costs just $10/bbl to $20/bbl. for these wells to produce. So hedged production is extremely important as it allows some wells to get up and running, and hopefully payback in a somewhat quick time frame so they can become income producers.
    The oil business is in the here and now, and because of this most of my comments/concerns only deal with that I don't like the idea of buying a company based on maybe. When we look at operators we try to stay with what we consider to be best in breed. Right now we don't think NOG is it, but then again we are really in love with non-operators. That's not to say that NOG wont do well, or that we are wrong, just that it doesn't fit what we look for in an investment.
    Dec 24, 2014. 01:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Emerald Payback Times Point To A Long Winter In The Bakken [View article]
    Aricool,

    Safety First!
    I don't think Chris still has it up on his site. I think they keep them for about a week. We have it up on Shaletrader, let me see if I can get a copy sent to you.
    Dec 24, 2014. 12:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: American Eagle's Well Results Spell Significant Issues If Oil Prices Don't Rebound Soon [View article]
    GHOST,

    Thanks for that one, needed the laugh :)
    Dec 24, 2014. 12:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: American Eagle's Well Results Spell Significant Issues If Oil Prices Don't Rebound Soon [View article]
    noreaster,

    I don't have an exact number for how much gas is being flared but it is a very large number. Not a lot of pipe in the ground up here, and even if there was there is still issues with plant capacity.
    Dec 24, 2014. 12:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: American Eagle's Well Results Spell Significant Issues If Oil Prices Don't Rebound Soon [View article]
    Pablomike,

    I backed out LOEs and production taxes.
    Dec 24, 2014. 12:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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