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Michael Filloon

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  • Bakken Update: Frac Sand Pricing Could Go Parabolic In Q3 2014 [View article]
    spraymaster,

    Fraccing has nothing to do with the earthquakes. This is from disposal wells near fault lines.
    Mar 10 01:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Frac Sand Pricing Could Go Parabolic In Q3 2014 [View article]
    storm11,

    I had owned some shares of NES back when it was HEK. The trade wasn't a bad one for me (I was only in for a short period of time), but as you said the stock has produced some pain for those that have been long term shareholders. I can provide a little info from the Bakken. All of the operators we have spoken with want to take care of their own water issues. The problem for NES are operators like OAS and TPLM. Both have done an excellent job of keeping water costs down through their own mid stream companies. Is it possible that NES will have a turn around in the Bakken? I would say its possible, but there is considerable risk still. The recent upgrade tells me I would need to do more work on the name. below is why it was upgraded.

    Nuverra Environment Solutions (NES) also rose almost 11% after analysts at Wunderlich Securities maintained their favorable rating on the oilfield water-services company, citing a price target at more than twice the stock's current price. Although the analyst expressed some concern about the company's Texas and Louisiana assets, Nuverra has a strong opportunity in the Bakken, and if that goes well, then short-term weather-related challenges could give way to greater growth in the future. Given the pounding that Nuverra's shares took in 2013, the company could use some respite from what has been a tough time.

    I don't necessarily agree with Wunderlich Securities, but I would say they have better knowledge of NES and this should be considered before buying or selling shares.
    Mar 8 06:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Frac Sand Pricing Could Go Parabolic In Q3 2014 [View article]
    Pablomike,

    I believe it they will. Right now the export ban is more of a political issue than anything else. I spose if we have to ruffle the hydrocarbons to get out of the country, it may not be a bad way to tighten differentials.
    Mar 7 11:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Frac Sand Pricing Could Go Parabolic In Q3 2014 [View article]
    PhilCA,

    I am unsure who's mines are coming on line in Wisconsin. Wish I could be of more help.
    Mar 7 09:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Frac Sand Pricing Could Go Parabolic In Q3 2014 [View article]
    blam24,

    I do like WLL going forward and expect the changes it is making to well design will improve IP rates by around 50%. From what I understand, WLL will be using this technique on all of its wells this year, and because of this the market has it undervalued.
    Mar 7 08:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Frac Sand Pricing Could Go Parabolic In Q3 2014 [View article]
    James Hanshaw,

    CRR does make proppant, but this research was focused on sand.
    Mar 7 08:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Frac Sand Pricing Could Go Parabolic In Q3 2014 [View article]
    whiz,

    Ceramic proppant can be a direct competitor to sand, and where ceramics do a better job of propping open the fracs it is generally much more expensive but stands up to greater pressures. Many operators will use a combination of sand and ceramics to keep well costs down but that depends on the depth of the interval and other factors. Some of the cheaper ceramic proppants from China and Russia compete a little better with respect to price. It has been my experience that ceramic proppant and sand work more in concert than in competition.
    Mar 7 08:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Frac Sand Pricing Could Go Parabolic In Q3 2014 [View article]
    Thanks for helping out Craig. As always I appreciate it.
    Mar 7 01:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Frac Sand Pricing Could Go Parabolic In Q3 2014 [View article]
    dakota12,

    Tesoro is still able to replace some of its Foreign and Alaskan feedstock in its California refineries. I think there is about 800 Mbd of capacity to replace. Looks like rail unloading capacity will increase from 218 Mbd at the beginning of this year to 910 Mbd at YE 2015.
    Mar 7 01:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Frac Sand Pricing Could Go Parabolic In Q3 2014 [View article]
    Holthusen,

    It is difficult to say, but I think so. Gasfrac has been trying to find a niche and it may have. If LPG proves to be effective in getting shallow oil dominant shales to produce economically, Gasfrac will have more work than it will know what to do with. Shallow wells that produce only small to little amounts of gas generally do not have enough well pressure. LPG could increase those pressures (possibly). Will be interesting to see if this is correct.
    Mar 6 10:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Frac Sand Pricing Could Go Parabolic In Q3 2014 [View article]
    Rawenergy,

    Thanks for clarifying.
    Mar 6 04:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Frac Sand Pricing Could Go Parabolic In Q3 2014 [View article]
    User 12913771,

    I appreciate your input. Thanks for providing us with the technicals.
    Mar 6 04:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Frac Sand Pricing Could Go Parabolic In Q3 2014 [View article]
    Thanks AR,

    I agree. Definately a traders market at this point. almost have to stick with the quality names right now. You are correct with respect to OAS. I think focus should be on the acreage, and not necessarily the more expensive acreage but areas that have more upside. Valuations in NW McKenzie, SW Williams and in Montana high increased recently, but probably have a ways to go yet. I don't think that the market has realized the value of acreage with additional interval upside. OAS' acreage is focused around the lower Bakken silt. It would seem fraccing into this interval has really increased recoveries in the middle Bakken (but not so much the upper Three Forks). Its early, and so I would guess those numbers will get better. Another plus to OAS' acreage is what we are seeing with regard this article. This completion method works very well out there and so do slickwater fracs. We have no idea how this will unfold, and I believe the area has more upside than other more expensive acreage. This isnt just the Bakken, but also the Niobrara, which seems to be a poor mans Midland Basin. We have two very good B and C intervals and probably a good A. Below is the Codell which thins to the east of Wattenberg but below that there are at least three possible horizontal intervals.
    Mar 6 01:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Frac Sand Pricing Could Go Parabolic In Q3 2014 [View article]
    Josh,

    Thanks for commenting, I always appreciate your insite. I think I may have confused you with some of the points I was trying to make with this article. The first point is with respect to these areas being "identical". I don't think I have ever used the word identical to describe source rock from one square mile to the next. The reason for this is a geologist (I am not one) would tell you that it is highly unlikely that one would find identical rock anywhere with in a play. It could be said the rocks from these fields are more like one another than in Antelope, Tarpon, or other fields outside southwest Mountrail County. When comparing well results from one area to the next it is important to at least be somewhat close or use a comparable area. That is what makes comparing well results so difficult, there are just too many variables. I can only do my best to compare areas that are more like one another, as this is the best we have for formulating a comparison. What you would want to focus on here is EOG as an operator and what the numbers tell us with respect to completion design. Whiting and EOG are an excellent comparison based on well design because both have historically used much different methods. EOG focuses on source rock stimulation to create as much fracturing as possible along the lateral. In doing so it requires much more sand and fluids to get the desired results. Whiting has historically been very good at keeping well costs down, and in so had used much less proppant. I believe WLL would have used more proppant if they had stimulated the rock well enough to need it, but for what ever reason used differing methods. Looking at the Eagle Ford, the same is true. These areas are more like one another. One thing I think you should do Josh, is go through EOG's well results throughout the Bakken and Eagle Ford and look at the neighboring operators, then compare the results. You will find the EOG's results have been better throughout the entire play. This includes in the Bakken, western Williams (Liberty had some comparable results, but used slickwater fracs which could be an article in itself), and Northeast McKenzie County. I have documented this in quite a few articles and the research is not only sound, but extensive. Here is the research:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    These results are not just initial production from one day but over a significant period. It shows that EOG has done this where ever its acreage has been. No disrespect, but I see you commenting on articles being the Devil's Advocate at times and I think this is great. We need to have differing views as I think it makes the site better and provides a different viewpoint. But when you do, maybe you shouldn't use a word like identical when that is not the word used in the article. Also, provide some links to go to that show the readers that your views are true. Saying you have spoken to someone at MHR, PVA, or WLL does little for the readers as I could say I called and spoke to anyone and say what ever I wanted to. Plus, you may want to provide links for why the geology is different. I am not saying you are trying to mislead anyone (I know you wouldnt do that), just saying everyone here would really appreciate reading all of the research you have done. That said, this article has more to do with how better source rock stimulation has led us to the increased use of frac sand per foot, providing for better overall well results. Not so much about a very specific article on how identical the source rock is from one field to the next. In reality, it would be impossible to find two areas that are identical to compare along the full length of a lateral, as each stage differs from one another within each lateral. Have a great day Josh, always appreciate your comments.
    Mar 6 11:32 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Frac Sand Pricing Could Go Parabolic In Q3 2014 [View article]
    Brucejfern,

    Thanks for commenting.
    Mar 5 07:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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