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Michael Filloon  

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  • Bakken Update: U.S. Crude Storage Capacity Is Filling Up, So Oil May Be Headed Below $40/Bbl [View article]
    Oil commentary on the TV show last night with Chris Berg
    http://bit.ly/1BWcqtn
    Jun 9, 2015. 10:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Whiting's Extensive Refrac Inventory May Provide Significant Upside [View article]
    Check out our oil commentary on the show last night. POV 6:30
    http://bit.ly/1BWcqtn
    Jun 9, 2015. 10:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Diamondback Energy's Spraberry Results Impress At $60/Bbl Oil [View article]
    Check out our oil commentary on the show last night.
    http://bit.ly/1BWcqtn
    Jun 9, 2015. 09:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Diamondback Energy's Spraberry Results Impress At $60/Bbl Oil [View article]
    TopDoggie,

    Thanks, I appreciate it!
    Jun 2, 2015. 03:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Diamondback Energy's Spraberry Results Impress At $60/Bbl Oil [View article]
    Thanks charmion,

    I think you are spot on. Without getting into holdings, right now is not the time to be getting into E&Ps. Anything dealing with transports and storage looks good given the large inventories of oil, but we may not be done with the pullback. Until October, the oil markets are a terribly difficult place to be and there is a chance of a W shaped recovery which means we could re-touch the lows yet this year. Even if we dont, it is still possible that US production will hold up into year end and at the same time OPEC members are trying to get their oil to new customers to push out the competition before Iran's oil hits the market. Because of this, there is just too much oil and although many of the OPEC budgets need higher oil prices, many of them do not need it now and could get by for a couple of years without making any changes and if things got tight they could change some social programs, etc. So why not flood the market with oil? Its a tactic that has worked in the past, and I think they are still trying to do it. I dont know if they are as worried about US land production as they are with the ramping up of deep sea and heavy oil, which isnt that hard to push out of the market. Right now is a time look at operators with excellent core acreage, and when the time is right start buying up some of these names. The only problem is that time probably isnt here yet. Thanks for commenting, and let me know if you need anything else.
    May 29, 2015. 09:38 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Diamondback Energy's Spraberry Results Impress At $60/Bbl Oil [View article]
    Thank you Nicholas,

    It is difficult to get terribly excited about the land rig operators. There are too many holes in the ground and it could take a while to get through all of that inventory. Keep in mind, some of these holes were drilled in an expectation that lower oil prices are here to stay for a while and operators were making a last ditch effort to get sections held by production while they still could in marginal areas, but that still adds to the completion backlog as you stated. We think that some of the operators are still good, but only those with a large inventory of horizontal and directional AC drive rigs. The reason we think this, is when oil prices begin to trade in the $60 to $70 range consistently, operators will start drilling holes again but mostly in core areas. When I say consistently, that is not now as we first have to work through the oil glut and that could take us into the latter part of next year on an optimistic scenerio. We have seen demand hold up well (but not great) with those rigs while the rigs used in the more shallow areas that are not AC driven falling off a cliff along with mechanical rigs. These rigs probably need $80 oil for some of the poor shallow horizontal plays and better vertical programs to start moving again. We plan to revisit the issue next year, so we dont have hard numbers yet but arent excited enough to move in any direction until there is better clarity. Inevitably, some of these players will need to go out of business. Hope I answered this to your liking. Have a great day!
    May 29, 2015. 09:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Diamondback Energy's Spraberry Results Impress At $60/Bbl Oil [View article]
    Jeep,

    Always great to hear from you and thanks for commenting. I couldnt agree more, and I know I keep sounding the horn on this but you were one of the first ones to say US oil production would affect world markets while most of us didnt totally agree. Looking at it now, we had been saying the drilling and completion costs would come down but who thought it would be done this quickly. Nice little uptick in production today from the EIA out of the US.
    As for the short to medium term, we had already made some changes to our portfolios recently guessing this would be coming. The drop in oil prices could be faster than expected. We will see if oil holds at $55/bbl, and if not we are looking at around $53.50/bbl. Have a good one and again, always great to hear from you.
    May 28, 2015. 12:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Diamondback Energy's Spraberry Results Impress At $60/Bbl Oil [View article]
    stevenly,

    Dirk made a good point but there are other things going on right now in a macro environment that could continue to weigh on not just FANG but most of the E&Ps in general. We know the strong dollar continues to weigh on oil and since we expect the US economy to improve this quarter, some think the rate hike may come sooner than later. We also had what looked like a good EIA report, but really production increased in the US while imports decreased some. Also, inventories are still pretty high, and many were hoping US production would buckle while its holding on well and OPEC continues to increase. This is just some of the story, but most expect oil prices to drop sometime before now and October and its possible the drop may be significant. We dont know if we will retest lows, but many firms are dropping these operators in hopes of getting them cheaper a little later in the year. Hope this helps, but FANG isnt the only one down as the whole space is feeling it today.
    May 28, 2015. 11:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Diamondback Energy's Spraberry Results Impress At $60/Bbl Oil [View article]
    Pablomike,

    Sorry that is the wrong chart, we will have to fix. Those are the most widely held stocks. The reserve writedowns will be interesting. Especially for those with non-core acreage.
    May 28, 2015. 01:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Diamondback Energy's Spraberry Results Impress At $60/Bbl Oil [View article]
    101investor,

    Your Welcome!
    May 27, 2015. 04:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Diamondback Energy's Spraberry Results Impress At $60/Bbl Oil [View article]
    Profit Propositions,

    As you probably know, capital expenditures can be high in the early stages of development for E&Ps. So although a single well can be very profitable (keep in mind, after payback these wells are basically printing money) over all costs can be much higher for getting pipe in the ground, buildings, etc. I know there are a lot of individuals that do not like E&Ps for that reason, but we try to focus on whether an operator is worth the wait (or investment). FANG is in a very good area, and we tend to focus on that to begin and work around their results, etc. Hope this helps. http://bit.ly/1si3hbl
    May 27, 2015. 04:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Diamondback Energy's Spraberry Results Impress At $60/Bbl Oil [View article]
    boomerbob1,

    I would love to answer that one, but we make actual recommendations at our website (membership required). You can check it out at this link http://bit.ly/1si3hbl or email one of the portfolio managers. Their email addresses are on the site. Sorry about that, but actual stock recommendations have to be made by the firm on that site. Have a great day!
    May 27, 2015. 01:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Diamondback Energy's Spraberry Results Impress At $60/Bbl Oil [View article]
    101investor,

    $WLL has acreage in the Bakken (you probably already know that) and the Niobrara's Northeast Extension. EOG has acreage all over, and acreage in the Permian, but it is located in the Delaware Basin (Bone Springs), which is quite good. Comparing the economics of the Core Permian and Core Eagle Ford is a little tough when not getting into specifics as well design, source rock, etc. but rates of return are probably close when the best areas are considered. But like I said, thats a real general estimate and we would prefer to take specific up to date well results to figure exact payback times, etc. Hope this helps.
    May 27, 2015. 12:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Diamondback Energy's Spraberry Results Impress At $60/Bbl Oil [View article]
    creloans,

    Thanks! Im not sure we will be able to hold as oil prices have some upcoming head winds. But longer term, some names still look real good. I think most are waiting for a little better opportunity later in the year, if that occurs. http://bit.ly/1si3hbl
    May 27, 2015. 11:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Diamondback Energy's Spraberry Results Impress At $60/Bbl Oil [View article]
    Dirk,

    I agree with the current oil pricing environment, and that one should be cautious before fall refining mainenance. Most of the operators in the Midland Basin core are well positioned for another drop in oil prices. Thanks for commenting. http://bit.ly/1si3hbl
    May 27, 2015. 10:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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